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Russia's "Hybrid" War Against Armenia

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  • Russia's "Hybrid" War Against Armenia

    Russia's "Hybrid" War Against Armenia

    Naira Hayrumyan, Political Commentator
    Comments - 26 October 2014, 20:22



    The head of the Russian Federal Customs Service is going to send its
    envoy to Armenia to study the situation in the country, including on
    the border of Armenia and Karabakh.

    First, it should be noted that it is the envoy of the Russian Customs
    Service, not of the Eurasian Commission. It means that Russia does not
    want to miss this tiny chance to interfere with Armenia's intimate
    state bodies under the Eurasian veil.

    Russia is currently taking similar steps towards Abkhazia, trying to
    sign an agreement with this republic which will actually make Abkhazia
    part of Russia.

    Currently a heated discussion is underway in Abkhazia that may end up
    in a pan-national mobilization and as, Russian experts suggest, there
    may be a new change of government. The people of Abkhazia do not want
    to lose their sovereignty, while the government and non-government of
    "recognized" Armenia are doing everything they can to eliminate any
    hindrance to "velvet" annexation of Armenia by Russia.

    Russia is doing everything to highlight the similarity of the status
    of Armenia and of its unrecognized satellites Abkhazia and Crimea. The
    sole decision on operation of Crimea-Yerevan flights is enough. It
    will immediately reduce the status of Armenia to the status of annexed
    Crimea.

    Apparently, Russia will then second its customs officers to the
    borders of Armenia. Apparently, however, it has not been identified
    whether local or Eurasian customs officers will work on Armenia's
    customs borders. It is possible that the compromise mentioned by
    Nazarbayev concerned the permission granted to Armenia to leave its
    customs officers on its BCPs to make sure that they will share all the
    information with the Eurasian customs center. These customs officers
    will stand on the border of Armenia with Iran, Georgia and Karabakh.

    After joining the Eurasian Union the situation on the borders of
    Armenia is going to change suddenly. The Georgian ambassador to
    Armenia Tengis Sharmanashvili has announced that in early November the
    Georgian delegation will visit Armenia. Problems have occurred with
    Georgia-Armenia trade that need to be clarified, Sharmanashvili said.
    He held out hope that the problems can be solved but, apparently,
    these problems cannot even be diagnosed.

    Iran cannot identify either how its relations with Armenia will
    develop after the latter's membership to the Eurasian Economic Union.
    Georgia and Iran which are not Russia's allies at the moment rightly
    doubt that Moscow may close the customs border of Armenia, such as for
    violation of phytosanitary norms.

    Western experts describe Moscow's recent actions as "hybrid" war in
    which "irregular" methods are used and it is hard to find an antidote.
    Among these methods is the Eurasian Union where the rules are defined
    in a way as to change them upon necessity.

    By using "hybrid" methods Russia may close the trade borders of
    Armenia with Iran, Georgia and Karabakh, forcing Yerevan to "beg" for
    lifting the blockade of the borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey. This
    is a probable scenario, it is being considered and will be easily
    staged if Armenia "swallows" the flights from Crime and does not
    object to Russia's intention to second an envoy of the Russian Customs
    Service to the sovereign borders of Armenia.

    http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33142#sthash.xVHGHHSN.dpuf




    From: A. Papazian
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