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IHS Jane's: Azerbaijan to refrain from provocations on contact line,
fearing miscalculation
14:05 25/10/2014 ยป REGION
The Azerbaijani authorities' ongoing clampdown on civil society is
geared towards parliamentary elections in 2015, reads the article
published on IHS Jane's site.
According to the article, on 6 October, the Norwegian Helsinki
Committee awarded 98 political prisoners in Azerbaijan the prestigious
annual Andrei Sakharov Freedom Award. Since the beginning of the year,
the Azerbaijani authorities have been carrying out a systematic
campaign against the opposition and civil society by arresting
prominent political dissidents, democracy activists, and human rights
defenders. In September, security officials raided the office of
apolitical, US-based non-governmental organisation (NGO) International
Research and Exchanges Board (IREX), which is exclusively engaged in
promoting educational activities. The government froze IREX's bank
accounts as well as those of the local office of Transparency
International.
IHS assesses that the campaign is orchestrated by the influential head
of the presidential administration Ramiz Mehdiyev, President Ilham
Aliyev's main adviser on domestic policy, in response to the ouster of
former president Viktor Yanukovych in Ukraine, which increased
suspicions that the Western-funded NGOs will likely be used to foment
civil unrest in Azerbaijan, the article reads.
By weakening both civil society and any political opposition,
President Ilham Aliyev is hoping to avoid protests in the run-up to
the parliamentary elections Scheduled for November 2015. The crackdown
is likely to succeed and ultimately result in the desired election
outcome.
A ceasefire violation, resulting in several fatalities, along the Line
of Contact (LoC) between Azerbaijan and the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic
(NKR), which occurred on the night of 31 July/1 August, marked the
most significant escalation In response to the violence, Russian
president Vladimir Putin arranged a meeting in Sochi, attended by the
Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents. Aliyev was reportedly warned not
to entertain any notions of resolving the Karabakh conflict by force,
according to several Azerbaijani military analysts.
In an attempt to mitigate a potential Armenian ballistic missile
threat, Azerbaijan is developing missile defence capability. Likely
modelled after Israel's "Iron Dome", this air defence system is
designed to shield Azerbaijan's key government buildings, military
installations, and critical energy infrastructure, including the
Sangachal terminal, from potential retaliation by Armenia using its
Russian-supplied Scud-B and Tochka-U ballistic missiles.
The current stalemate over Ukraine creates strategic uncertainty and
makes it more likely that the Azeri government will abstain from
provocations for fear of potential miscalculation. Finally, Azerbaijan
will host major international sporting events in 2015 (First European
Games), 2016 (42nd Chess Olympiad and F1 European Grand Prix), which
also mitigate war risks in the three-year outlook.
According to Azerbaijani sources close to 100 Azeri nationals are
reported to have died in the Syrian conflict, but there are no
reliable estimates of the number currently fighting there. News
reports from Azeri open sources suggest there are between 100 and 400
fighters. Azerbaijani militants take advantage of a visa-free regime
with Turkey to travel to Syria. A number of factors have resulted in
Sumgait emerging as the hotspot of Sunni extremism. There are periodic
police raids in Sumgait and other hotspots, including northern areas
populated by ethnic minorities (Qusar and Qakh districts), the article
reads.
http://www.panorama.am/en/society/2014/10/25/ihs/
fearing miscalculation
14:05 25/10/2014 ยป REGION
The Azerbaijani authorities' ongoing clampdown on civil society is
geared towards parliamentary elections in 2015, reads the article
published on IHS Jane's site.
According to the article, on 6 October, the Norwegian Helsinki
Committee awarded 98 political prisoners in Azerbaijan the prestigious
annual Andrei Sakharov Freedom Award. Since the beginning of the year,
the Azerbaijani authorities have been carrying out a systematic
campaign against the opposition and civil society by arresting
prominent political dissidents, democracy activists, and human rights
defenders. In September, security officials raided the office of
apolitical, US-based non-governmental organisation (NGO) International
Research and Exchanges Board (IREX), which is exclusively engaged in
promoting educational activities. The government froze IREX's bank
accounts as well as those of the local office of Transparency
International.
IHS assesses that the campaign is orchestrated by the influential head
of the presidential administration Ramiz Mehdiyev, President Ilham
Aliyev's main adviser on domestic policy, in response to the ouster of
former president Viktor Yanukovych in Ukraine, which increased
suspicions that the Western-funded NGOs will likely be used to foment
civil unrest in Azerbaijan, the article reads.
By weakening both civil society and any political opposition,
President Ilham Aliyev is hoping to avoid protests in the run-up to
the parliamentary elections Scheduled for November 2015. The crackdown
is likely to succeed and ultimately result in the desired election
outcome.
A ceasefire violation, resulting in several fatalities, along the Line
of Contact (LoC) between Azerbaijan and the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic
(NKR), which occurred on the night of 31 July/1 August, marked the
most significant escalation In response to the violence, Russian
president Vladimir Putin arranged a meeting in Sochi, attended by the
Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents. Aliyev was reportedly warned not
to entertain any notions of resolving the Karabakh conflict by force,
according to several Azerbaijani military analysts.
In an attempt to mitigate a potential Armenian ballistic missile
threat, Azerbaijan is developing missile defence capability. Likely
modelled after Israel's "Iron Dome", this air defence system is
designed to shield Azerbaijan's key government buildings, military
installations, and critical energy infrastructure, including the
Sangachal terminal, from potential retaliation by Armenia using its
Russian-supplied Scud-B and Tochka-U ballistic missiles.
The current stalemate over Ukraine creates strategic uncertainty and
makes it more likely that the Azeri government will abstain from
provocations for fear of potential miscalculation. Finally, Azerbaijan
will host major international sporting events in 2015 (First European
Games), 2016 (42nd Chess Olympiad and F1 European Grand Prix), which
also mitigate war risks in the three-year outlook.
According to Azerbaijani sources close to 100 Azeri nationals are
reported to have died in the Syrian conflict, but there are no
reliable estimates of the number currently fighting there. News
reports from Azeri open sources suggest there are between 100 and 400
fighters. Azerbaijani militants take advantage of a visa-free regime
with Turkey to travel to Syria. A number of factors have resulted in
Sumgait emerging as the hotspot of Sunni extremism. There are periodic
police raids in Sumgait and other hotspots, including northern areas
populated by ethnic minorities (Qusar and Qakh districts), the article
reads.
http://www.panorama.am/en/society/2014/10/25/ihs/