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THE 'ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM': AZERBAIJAN'S WAR AND TURKEY
Journal of Turkish Weekly
Oct 28 2014
By Handan Kazanci
AA
In the final part of our reports from Armenia, Anadolu Agency examines
the role of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict in stalling normalization
between Yerevan and Ankara.
As the bitter Armenia and Azerbaijan conflict casts its shadow over
stalled relations between Ankara and Yerevan, one American-Armenian
expert tells Anadolu Agency that Baku needs to be part of
Turkish-Armenian normalization.
Richard Giragosian, director of the Yerevan-based Regional Studies
Center, says that Turkey and Armenia should correct "the mistakes of
the past by normalizing relations more gradually so that Azerbaijan
would be pressured to accept."
The conflict between Turkey's two eastern neighbors over the
disputed Nagorno-Karabakh territory has dragged on for decades. The
often-violent conflict eventually saw Turkey close its border with
Armenia in 1993.
Ankara has maintained relations with Azerbaijan ever since. Indeed,
successive Turkish leaders have been at pains to emphasize the close
cultural links between the two countries.
Turks and Azerbaijanis are mostly Muslim, speak a closely related
language and have a common Turkic identity, all of which have --
at times -- put them at odds with their Armenian neighbors.
This closeness was articulated by the late Azerbaijani president
Heydar Aliyev who described the relationship with Turkey as "one
nation, two states."
An attempt was made to implement a protocol agreement between Ankara
and Yerevan in October 2009 in Zurich, but this eventually failed. The
deal would have begun moves to open the border between Turkey and
Armenia and establish official relations.
Giragosian, whose grandfather was born in Turkey's eastern province
of Elazig, believes that "Turkey could contact with Azerbaijan as
negotiations happen, not after."
Speaking to a group of Turkish and Armenian journalists who were
in Yerevan in October, Giragosian said: "The Armenian/Turkish
normalization process is one of the few issues where I support the
Armenian government."
The need for normalization is partly found in the enduring disagreement
between Turkey and Armenia over WWI-era accusations and counter-claims.
Events in 1915 -- which the Armenian diaspora and government describe
as 'genocide' -- have severely damaged relations between the neighbors.
Turkey strongly rejects the Armenian allegation and says Armenians died
in intercommunal fighting and starvation during their relocation in
1915. Turkey says many Turks also lost their lives in attacks carried
out by Armenian gangs in Anatolia.
Giragosian is optimistic about normalization; "It was never supposed
to be easy," he says, believing that the real obstacle to normalization
is not in Ankara or Yerevan but in Baku.
"Azerbaijan is the number-one foreign investor in Turkey. And there
was one important mistake from the [2009] protocol process; it was
Turkey's arrogance in underestimating the Azerbaijani reaction and
overestimating its ability to persuade Baku," he says.
Nevertheless, Turkey and Azerbaijan have still developed strong
cooperation in the energy and transport sectors. The Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan
Crude Oil Pipeline, Baku-Tbilisi Erzurum Natural Gas Pipeline and
Baku-Tbilisi-Kars Railway Project are only some of the regional
enterprises where the two countries have worked together.
"My vision of normalization is an open border, diplomatic relations as
the first step to reconciliation and that's when the genocide comes
up. What this also means is a way to deal with our shared history,"
Giragosian says.
Giragosian says that there is a much more open space within Turkey
on normalizing Turkey and Armenian relations, saying that he has
been in Turkey for the past three years for 1915 commemorations with
Turkish colleagues.
He recalls Turkey's then-prime minister - now president - Recep
Tayyip Erdogan's April statement which offered condolences over the
Armenian deaths.
"This was an important and symbolic statement and I welcomed it,"
Giragosian says.
"It reached those in the audience of [Turkey's ruling] AKP supporters
that previously were not comfortable with talking about the issue.
"The statement by Erdogan now made it possible to engage a new level
of Turkish society, the hardcore of pro-Erdogan supporters," he says.
He says that although Armenia and Turkey have no official diplomatic
relations, Turkey's last three foreign ministers have visited Yerevan.
Despite the closed border and frosty diplomatic tensions, trade -
albeit small-scale - between Turkey and Armenia stubbornly refuses
to disappear.
Economist and executive director of the Yerevan-based Caucasus Research
Center, Heghine Manasyan, says that Turkey was the sixth major partner
in terms of imports for Armenia after the E.U.
countries, Russia and Georgia.
Manasyan also claims that there are a lot of Armenians traveling to
Turkey and sending goods by plane or trucks back across the border
to sell.
In 2008 Turkey had no exports to Armenia, according to Turkstat,
Turkey's statistics institution. This has since increased, if only
marginally.
In 2009, the year the Zurich protocols were signed, exports were
$2,000 but in 2012 they reached a high point of $241,000, according
to Turkstat.
Speaking on Armenia's becoming part of a Russia-led customs union -
an alternative to the E.U. for Moscow and former Soviet countries -
Manasyan says: "Most of the population here is surprised that we
turned from the E.U. to Russia. For many experts it is the past,
it is not the future."
"It will be easier for Armenian businesses to sell goods or import
things from these countries because of the common language - Russian -
and a common culture," she says.
Manasyan adds that the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union requires
fewer qualifications than E.U. regulations.
Nevertheless, for reconciliation between Armenia and Turkey, Azerbaijan
remains the elephant in the corner of the room and it seems that Baku
will continue to shape the Turkish-Armenian normalization process in
the future.
http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/174363/the-39-elephant-in-the-room-39-azerbaijan-39-s-war-and-turkey.html
Journal of Turkish Weekly
Oct 28 2014
By Handan Kazanci
AA
In the final part of our reports from Armenia, Anadolu Agency examines
the role of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict in stalling normalization
between Yerevan and Ankara.
As the bitter Armenia and Azerbaijan conflict casts its shadow over
stalled relations between Ankara and Yerevan, one American-Armenian
expert tells Anadolu Agency that Baku needs to be part of
Turkish-Armenian normalization.
Richard Giragosian, director of the Yerevan-based Regional Studies
Center, says that Turkey and Armenia should correct "the mistakes of
the past by normalizing relations more gradually so that Azerbaijan
would be pressured to accept."
The conflict between Turkey's two eastern neighbors over the
disputed Nagorno-Karabakh territory has dragged on for decades. The
often-violent conflict eventually saw Turkey close its border with
Armenia in 1993.
Ankara has maintained relations with Azerbaijan ever since. Indeed,
successive Turkish leaders have been at pains to emphasize the close
cultural links between the two countries.
Turks and Azerbaijanis are mostly Muslim, speak a closely related
language and have a common Turkic identity, all of which have --
at times -- put them at odds with their Armenian neighbors.
This closeness was articulated by the late Azerbaijani president
Heydar Aliyev who described the relationship with Turkey as "one
nation, two states."
An attempt was made to implement a protocol agreement between Ankara
and Yerevan in October 2009 in Zurich, but this eventually failed. The
deal would have begun moves to open the border between Turkey and
Armenia and establish official relations.
Giragosian, whose grandfather was born in Turkey's eastern province
of Elazig, believes that "Turkey could contact with Azerbaijan as
negotiations happen, not after."
Speaking to a group of Turkish and Armenian journalists who were
in Yerevan in October, Giragosian said: "The Armenian/Turkish
normalization process is one of the few issues where I support the
Armenian government."
The need for normalization is partly found in the enduring disagreement
between Turkey and Armenia over WWI-era accusations and counter-claims.
Events in 1915 -- which the Armenian diaspora and government describe
as 'genocide' -- have severely damaged relations between the neighbors.
Turkey strongly rejects the Armenian allegation and says Armenians died
in intercommunal fighting and starvation during their relocation in
1915. Turkey says many Turks also lost their lives in attacks carried
out by Armenian gangs in Anatolia.
Giragosian is optimistic about normalization; "It was never supposed
to be easy," he says, believing that the real obstacle to normalization
is not in Ankara or Yerevan but in Baku.
"Azerbaijan is the number-one foreign investor in Turkey. And there
was one important mistake from the [2009] protocol process; it was
Turkey's arrogance in underestimating the Azerbaijani reaction and
overestimating its ability to persuade Baku," he says.
Nevertheless, Turkey and Azerbaijan have still developed strong
cooperation in the energy and transport sectors. The Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan
Crude Oil Pipeline, Baku-Tbilisi Erzurum Natural Gas Pipeline and
Baku-Tbilisi-Kars Railway Project are only some of the regional
enterprises where the two countries have worked together.
"My vision of normalization is an open border, diplomatic relations as
the first step to reconciliation and that's when the genocide comes
up. What this also means is a way to deal with our shared history,"
Giragosian says.
Giragosian says that there is a much more open space within Turkey
on normalizing Turkey and Armenian relations, saying that he has
been in Turkey for the past three years for 1915 commemorations with
Turkish colleagues.
He recalls Turkey's then-prime minister - now president - Recep
Tayyip Erdogan's April statement which offered condolences over the
Armenian deaths.
"This was an important and symbolic statement and I welcomed it,"
Giragosian says.
"It reached those in the audience of [Turkey's ruling] AKP supporters
that previously were not comfortable with talking about the issue.
"The statement by Erdogan now made it possible to engage a new level
of Turkish society, the hardcore of pro-Erdogan supporters," he says.
He says that although Armenia and Turkey have no official diplomatic
relations, Turkey's last three foreign ministers have visited Yerevan.
Despite the closed border and frosty diplomatic tensions, trade -
albeit small-scale - between Turkey and Armenia stubbornly refuses
to disappear.
Economist and executive director of the Yerevan-based Caucasus Research
Center, Heghine Manasyan, says that Turkey was the sixth major partner
in terms of imports for Armenia after the E.U.
countries, Russia and Georgia.
Manasyan also claims that there are a lot of Armenians traveling to
Turkey and sending goods by plane or trucks back across the border
to sell.
In 2008 Turkey had no exports to Armenia, according to Turkstat,
Turkey's statistics institution. This has since increased, if only
marginally.
In 2009, the year the Zurich protocols were signed, exports were
$2,000 but in 2012 they reached a high point of $241,000, according
to Turkstat.
Speaking on Armenia's becoming part of a Russia-led customs union -
an alternative to the E.U. for Moscow and former Soviet countries -
Manasyan says: "Most of the population here is surprised that we
turned from the E.U. to Russia. For many experts it is the past,
it is not the future."
"It will be easier for Armenian businesses to sell goods or import
things from these countries because of the common language - Russian -
and a common culture," she says.
Manasyan adds that the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union requires
fewer qualifications than E.U. regulations.
Nevertheless, for reconciliation between Armenia and Turkey, Azerbaijan
remains the elephant in the corner of the room and it seems that Baku
will continue to shape the Turkish-Armenian normalization process in
the future.
http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/174363/the-39-elephant-in-the-room-39-azerbaijan-39-s-war-and-turkey.html