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EUROPE NEEDS A NEW SOURCE OF OIL AND GAS, FAST
TIME Magazine
Sept 11 2014
Claude Salhani
The Ukraine crisis underscores the need for a new European energy
policy
Summer is over and many Europeans may have to keep warm this coming
winter by thinking about their summer holidays while wrapped in
blankets, praying for a short winter or for the world to come to its
senses. It both cases, they may well be disappointed.
The never-ending conflicts in the Middle East, mayhem in Libya,
uncertainty in the Gulf and a war in Ukraine are all going to take
a toll on the energy supplies this winter.
Russia sold 86 billion cubic meters of gas last year, all of which
passed through Ukraine. Given what's happening there now, it is
highly unlikely that the Russians would allow their gas to transit a
country they are (unofficially) at war with. Just as it is unlikely
that Ukrainians would allow Russian gas access through its territory.
Result? Many cold Europeans, many angry Europeans and many very pissed
off Europeans. Many Europeans will have to make do without enough
gas to heat homes, offices and factories. That's a bad prospect in
northern European countries, where winter is no laughing matter.
Winter defeated the armies of both Napoleon and Hitler.
And what does history tell us about cold, angry, pissed-off Europeans?
Well, whenever two opposing camps got cold, angry and pissed off
enough at each other in the past, they typically went to war.
War in Europe? In our time?
It's not impossible. If current trends continue, it is not at all
impossible. Here's why:
1. Mounting tension between Russia and the West over Ukraine --
a situation that is very likely to worsen as the United States and
European Union tighten sanctions on Moscow.
2. NATO forces edging dangerously close to Russian forces.
3. The spread of the violence and reach of the Islamic State. Besides
the havoc they are creating in the region, there is the added threat
of hundreds, if not thousands, of their supporters who have learned how
to fight in Syria and Iraq returning to their home countries in Europe.
4. Turkey, which in recent years has played a stabilizing role in the
region, is moving today in a different direction that could well lead
to a new point of conflict. From jumping head first into the Middle
East conundrum under former prime minister and now President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan, the country's new prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu,
started off by possibly igniting a new fight when he announced --
much to the pleasure of Azerbaijan, and certainly to the dismay of
Armenia -- that "the liberation of occupied Azerbaijani lands would
be a strategic goal for Turkey."
These remarks refer to the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over
Nagorno-Karabakh and outlying areas that have been occupied by Armenia
since a violent conflagration around the time of the break-up of the
Soviet Union. Armenians and Azerbaijani troops have been engaging in
exchanges of fire on a daily basis over the past few months.
5: Mounting tension between Iran and Israel, and between Iran and an
unnamed former Soviet republic in the region that Iran says allowed
Israel to launch a drone from its territory to spy on Iran. Tehran
has promised a stern response. The country in question is thought to
be Azerbaijan, Armenia or Turkmenistan.
6. Continued mayhem in Libya, where the political turmoil is affecting
the flow of oil and gas to Europe.
7. The continued state of unrest in Israel/Gaza and the surrounding
area.
All these points of conflict are complicating Europe's search for more
reliable sources of energy. Europe is hoping to solve its gas shortage
problems by purchasing Azerbaijani gas, but it's unrealistic to depend
only on Azerbaijani gas, since Europeans would be at the mercy of
interruptions to gas and oil flows from this South Caucasus country.
What Europe desperately needs is a source of energy that with not
be interrupted by conflict or politics, that can be delivered via
pipeline or by sea, but will not need to transit through sea lanes
in areas of conflict.
And although EU Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said last week
that he is not worried about gas supplies from Russia via Ukraine,
that show of confidence did not stop him from going to Moscow to
plead Europe's case with the Russians.
So where does that leave the Europeans other than out in the cold?
Trend energy analyst Vagif Sharifov believes the new bonanza of natural
gas lies in the Arctic, where more than 1,500 trillion cubic feet of
natural gas can be found.
But polar drilling comes with a high cost and huge challenges. Europe
might need to keep looking.
http://time.com/author/claude-salhani/
TIME Magazine
Sept 11 2014
Claude Salhani
The Ukraine crisis underscores the need for a new European energy
policy
Summer is over and many Europeans may have to keep warm this coming
winter by thinking about their summer holidays while wrapped in
blankets, praying for a short winter or for the world to come to its
senses. It both cases, they may well be disappointed.
The never-ending conflicts in the Middle East, mayhem in Libya,
uncertainty in the Gulf and a war in Ukraine are all going to take
a toll on the energy supplies this winter.
Russia sold 86 billion cubic meters of gas last year, all of which
passed through Ukraine. Given what's happening there now, it is
highly unlikely that the Russians would allow their gas to transit a
country they are (unofficially) at war with. Just as it is unlikely
that Ukrainians would allow Russian gas access through its territory.
Result? Many cold Europeans, many angry Europeans and many very pissed
off Europeans. Many Europeans will have to make do without enough
gas to heat homes, offices and factories. That's a bad prospect in
northern European countries, where winter is no laughing matter.
Winter defeated the armies of both Napoleon and Hitler.
And what does history tell us about cold, angry, pissed-off Europeans?
Well, whenever two opposing camps got cold, angry and pissed off
enough at each other in the past, they typically went to war.
War in Europe? In our time?
It's not impossible. If current trends continue, it is not at all
impossible. Here's why:
1. Mounting tension between Russia and the West over Ukraine --
a situation that is very likely to worsen as the United States and
European Union tighten sanctions on Moscow.
2. NATO forces edging dangerously close to Russian forces.
3. The spread of the violence and reach of the Islamic State. Besides
the havoc they are creating in the region, there is the added threat
of hundreds, if not thousands, of their supporters who have learned how
to fight in Syria and Iraq returning to their home countries in Europe.
4. Turkey, which in recent years has played a stabilizing role in the
region, is moving today in a different direction that could well lead
to a new point of conflict. From jumping head first into the Middle
East conundrum under former prime minister and now President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan, the country's new prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu,
started off by possibly igniting a new fight when he announced --
much to the pleasure of Azerbaijan, and certainly to the dismay of
Armenia -- that "the liberation of occupied Azerbaijani lands would
be a strategic goal for Turkey."
These remarks refer to the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over
Nagorno-Karabakh and outlying areas that have been occupied by Armenia
since a violent conflagration around the time of the break-up of the
Soviet Union. Armenians and Azerbaijani troops have been engaging in
exchanges of fire on a daily basis over the past few months.
5: Mounting tension between Iran and Israel, and between Iran and an
unnamed former Soviet republic in the region that Iran says allowed
Israel to launch a drone from its territory to spy on Iran. Tehran
has promised a stern response. The country in question is thought to
be Azerbaijan, Armenia or Turkmenistan.
6. Continued mayhem in Libya, where the political turmoil is affecting
the flow of oil and gas to Europe.
7. The continued state of unrest in Israel/Gaza and the surrounding
area.
All these points of conflict are complicating Europe's search for more
reliable sources of energy. Europe is hoping to solve its gas shortage
problems by purchasing Azerbaijani gas, but it's unrealistic to depend
only on Azerbaijani gas, since Europeans would be at the mercy of
interruptions to gas and oil flows from this South Caucasus country.
What Europe desperately needs is a source of energy that with not
be interrupted by conflict or politics, that can be delivered via
pipeline or by sea, but will not need to transit through sea lanes
in areas of conflict.
And although EU Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said last week
that he is not worried about gas supplies from Russia via Ukraine,
that show of confidence did not stop him from going to Moscow to
plead Europe's case with the Russians.
So where does that leave the Europeans other than out in the cold?
Trend energy analyst Vagif Sharifov believes the new bonanza of natural
gas lies in the Arctic, where more than 1,500 trillion cubic feet of
natural gas can be found.
But polar drilling comes with a high cost and huge challenges. Europe
might need to keep looking.
http://time.com/author/claude-salhani/