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EEU: EXCESSIVE OPTIMISM IS INAPPROPRIATE
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
Sept 12 2014
12 September 2014 - 2:22pm
By Vestnik Kavkaza
In 3.5 months the citizens of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan (and probably
Armenia) will live in the Eurasian Economic Union. Over the years of
preparation for establishment of the union a lot has been said about
the effect on the populations of the member countries.
Today experts warned about excessive optimism, but insist that there
is no alternative to the EaEU.
Yuri Krupnov, the chairman of the Supervisory Council of the Institute
of Demography, Migration and Regional Development, thinks that people
should treat the issue of the EaEU more constructively: "In Russia
economic growth is almost zero, while in neighboring countries serious
intended devaluation of national currencies is going on. There is a
complicated economic situation in Belarus."
"We should create new economies of our common civilization space,
restore the technological university. Of course it is great that
Daewoo, Volkswagen, Nissan, Renault build automobile plants in our
country. I remember in 1997 I was told in Malaysia that they got
the first car based on Mitsubishi and the Malaysians were very happy
that they have their domestic cars. Of course we can be proud that
Volkswagen and Daewoo come to us, but sanctions and the situation
on banning technological transfer to our Russian civilization show
that the Eurasian Economic Union is unworkable without technological
independence," Krupnov thinks.
At the same time, the expert says that we should understand that "the
decision of May 29th on signing the basic agreements of the Eurasian
Economic Union is a matter of life and death. We are establishing a
pre-economic union to build a new economy in post-Soviet space. It
will be a long and difficult process. But the events in Georgia in
2008 and the Ukrainian tragedy show that the alternative to it is
the collapse of the independence of our states."
According to Krupnov, "Presidents Putin, Nazarbayev and Lukashenko say
that this is a concentration of forces before serious constructive work
in the next decade. The EaEU should be built. We need intermediate
technological industrial projects. In Kazakhstan the term "boosted
industrialization" is banal, while in Russia we have been discussing
industrialization for three years, the word "boosted" is perceived
as horrible, as we have a very liberalized mentality. Since the
collapse of the USSR we have a big achievement this year - the law
on industrial policies is being legally discussed, and "industrial
policies" is not an obscene phrase anymore."
"We have great prospects. We should understand that without joint
construction, all our states and sovereignties will die. We need to
survive in this security framework," Krupnov is sure.
Vladimir Lepekhin, the head of the EurAsEC Institute, agrees with
him: "Due to the political scientific center "North-South" in July
a conference was held in Kazakhstan, where a model of economic
development was presented. It gives us a picture of development of
the Eurasian Economic Union. In Kazakhstan they do their best within
the industrial plan which was adopted in 2010, but Russia has no
such plan, unfortunately. The conference discussed the topic: "Raw
material industry orientation of the country - bad or good?" There is
a view that it is bad to depend on resources. But it is bad when all
resources are exported instead of being processed in the country. Raw
materials turn into goods when it is connected with an industrial
plan of development. That's what happens in Kazakhstan. And we can
see these advantages, if we look carefully."
According to Lepekhin, "on the one hand, we reduce trade turnover due
to problems in Ukraine; on the other hand, there are the first steps
which confirm that in the long prospect integration will bring greater
economic effect. If we look attentively at the economic structure,
we will see that there is a turn to intensification of the industrial
development of Kazakhstan, Belarus and Russia. Kazakhstan is the
leader among the three countries in the sphere of development of an
optimal model."
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/articles/politics/59878.html
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
Sept 12 2014
12 September 2014 - 2:22pm
By Vestnik Kavkaza
In 3.5 months the citizens of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan (and probably
Armenia) will live in the Eurasian Economic Union. Over the years of
preparation for establishment of the union a lot has been said about
the effect on the populations of the member countries.
Today experts warned about excessive optimism, but insist that there
is no alternative to the EaEU.
Yuri Krupnov, the chairman of the Supervisory Council of the Institute
of Demography, Migration and Regional Development, thinks that people
should treat the issue of the EaEU more constructively: "In Russia
economic growth is almost zero, while in neighboring countries serious
intended devaluation of national currencies is going on. There is a
complicated economic situation in Belarus."
"We should create new economies of our common civilization space,
restore the technological university. Of course it is great that
Daewoo, Volkswagen, Nissan, Renault build automobile plants in our
country. I remember in 1997 I was told in Malaysia that they got
the first car based on Mitsubishi and the Malaysians were very happy
that they have their domestic cars. Of course we can be proud that
Volkswagen and Daewoo come to us, but sanctions and the situation
on banning technological transfer to our Russian civilization show
that the Eurasian Economic Union is unworkable without technological
independence," Krupnov thinks.
At the same time, the expert says that we should understand that "the
decision of May 29th on signing the basic agreements of the Eurasian
Economic Union is a matter of life and death. We are establishing a
pre-economic union to build a new economy in post-Soviet space. It
will be a long and difficult process. But the events in Georgia in
2008 and the Ukrainian tragedy show that the alternative to it is
the collapse of the independence of our states."
According to Krupnov, "Presidents Putin, Nazarbayev and Lukashenko say
that this is a concentration of forces before serious constructive work
in the next decade. The EaEU should be built. We need intermediate
technological industrial projects. In Kazakhstan the term "boosted
industrialization" is banal, while in Russia we have been discussing
industrialization for three years, the word "boosted" is perceived
as horrible, as we have a very liberalized mentality. Since the
collapse of the USSR we have a big achievement this year - the law
on industrial policies is being legally discussed, and "industrial
policies" is not an obscene phrase anymore."
"We have great prospects. We should understand that without joint
construction, all our states and sovereignties will die. We need to
survive in this security framework," Krupnov is sure.
Vladimir Lepekhin, the head of the EurAsEC Institute, agrees with
him: "Due to the political scientific center "North-South" in July
a conference was held in Kazakhstan, where a model of economic
development was presented. It gives us a picture of development of
the Eurasian Economic Union. In Kazakhstan they do their best within
the industrial plan which was adopted in 2010, but Russia has no
such plan, unfortunately. The conference discussed the topic: "Raw
material industry orientation of the country - bad or good?" There is
a view that it is bad to depend on resources. But it is bad when all
resources are exported instead of being processed in the country. Raw
materials turn into goods when it is connected with an industrial
plan of development. That's what happens in Kazakhstan. And we can
see these advantages, if we look carefully."
According to Lepekhin, "on the one hand, we reduce trade turnover due
to problems in Ukraine; on the other hand, there are the first steps
which confirm that in the long prospect integration will bring greater
economic effect. If we look attentively at the economic structure,
we will see that there is a turn to intensification of the industrial
development of Kazakhstan, Belarus and Russia. Kazakhstan is the
leader among the three countries in the sphere of development of an
optimal model."
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/articles/politics/59878.html