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Giorgi Gvimradze: Russia's fate hangs in the balance in Ukraine
ArmInfo's interview with Giorgi Gvimradze, expert at the Tbilisi-based
Center for Strategic Studies
by David Stepanyan
ARMINFO
Saturday, September 13, 16:34
As it was expected, during the NATO summit in Wales on 4-5 September
Georgia did not get the MAP -the roadmap for joining NATO. Meanwhile,
after the war 08.08.08 the security of Georgia has found itself to be
more exposed to the new risks. Moreover, as the Wales summit has
shown, the expectations of Tbilisi from the side of its partners to
create at least the outlines of a general security system, and to
involve NATO in the Caucasus affairs more, have not become true. What
are Georgia's expectations from NATO today?
Georgia did not expect to get MAP at the Wales summit, which was not
dedicated to NATO extension. Certainly, some part of the Georgian
society had such sexed up expectations from the summit. However, our
government did everything possible not to have such expectations. On
the other hand, Georgia got from the summit closer cooperation in
security sphere. Moreover, a military and training centre with NATO
instructors and certain contingent will be opened in Georgia. This
cooperation should help enhance the national defence capacity of
Georgia and come closer to the NATO standards, which will promote
Georgia's membership in NATO. Thus, the expectations of Georgia from
further integration with NATO are positive and realistic.
After Georgian Dream came to power in Georgiam Tbilisi's rhetoric
regarding Moscow has softened and certain warming of relations has
been observed. May the dialogue develop to a level necessary to make
any agreements in the security field?
Despite certain improvement of relations with Moscow after coming of
the "Georgian dream" to power in Georgia, at present the level of the
relations has not reached the needed degree for signing of the
Russia-Georgia security agreements. Moreover, I don't think that the
thaw in relations will ever reach this level of confidence. Anyway,
everything depends on Russia's actions in Ukraine. That is to say,
Russia's fate hangs in the balance just in Ukraine, either it will
remain an active member of the European politics, or the process of
its alienation will go on developing. As a result, Russia's aggressive
actions against its neighbors will grow much. That is to say,
formally, certain agreements may be reached, but they will hardly act.
May the global Russia-West confrontation spillover from Ukraine to the
territory of other post-Soviet countries that "are hesitating" about
their geo-political choice?
Georgia is not hesitating about its geo-political choice. Tbilisi
insists on the Euroatlantic integration. Certainly, Russia's actions
in Ukraine are disturbing, as a result, a threat to the security of
the post-Soviet countries is growing, especially for such countries as
Georgia and Moldova, which have got an agenda of the foreign policy
independent from Russia. But other countries as well have no reason to
live calmly. I would like simply to remind you of the statement by
president of Russia about Kazakhstan when making a speech at the youth
camp, and other examples.
In August 2014 the Defense Ministers of Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkey
- Irakli Alasania, Zakir Hasanov and Ismet Yilmaz - met in Nakhijevan.
The ministers discussed issues related to defense of communication
infrastructure, particularly, communication facilities, railway
tracks, and strategic pipelines in time of war. The participants took
a decision to hold such consultations regularly. The meeting caused a
surge of emotion in Baku, which predicts the fiasco of Armenia and
Nagorno-Karabakh. What are Tbilisi's expectations from such
anti-Armenian union?
I think it is unacceptable to call the alliance of Georgia, Turkey and
Azerbaijan an anti-Armenian alliance because Georgia is also a member
of the alliance. I want to assure you that Georgia cooperates against
no country, especially, against Armenia. Georgian does not do it even
against Russia, which is occupying Georgia's territories. As regards
the specified alliance, you perfectly know how much Georgia
appreciates its relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey.
The Turkey-Georgia-Azerbaijan corridor is of strategic importance to
Georgia. Certainly, the cooperation with these countries matters
much, especially given that Turkey is a NATO member. Notwithstanding
the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan and the conflict between
Armenia and Turkey, Georgia values its bilateral and multilateral
partner relations with all these countries.
Armenia is preparing to access EEU. Georgia has been orienting its
economy at Europe after signing DCFTA. Is it reasonable for Georgia to
refuse the possibilities of the Russian marker and how it may affect
the economic cooperation of Armenia ands Georgia?
Although a certain part of the DCFTA has been already working,
Georgia-Russia trade and economic relations are just growing.
Therefore, at this stage Georgia is not going to fully refuse the
Russian market. It has turned out that the European countries
themselves should not trade with Russia, though we do not see that,
but mutual sanctions of the European Union and Russia. So, the trade
and economic relations between Georgia and Russia may stop only if the
leadership of these countries have the will to stop them. To be more
correct, if they have a will not to continue them. Despite the new
obstacles between Tbilisi and Yerevan because of Armenia's intention
to join the Eurasian Economic Union, taking into consideration
coincidence of interests of the two countries, the Georgians and
Armenians will be able to overcome new economic barriers.
ArmInfo's interview with Giorgi Gvimradze, expert at the Tbilisi-based
Center for Strategic Studies
by David Stepanyan
ARMINFO
Saturday, September 13, 16:34
As it was expected, during the NATO summit in Wales on 4-5 September
Georgia did not get the MAP -the roadmap for joining NATO. Meanwhile,
after the war 08.08.08 the security of Georgia has found itself to be
more exposed to the new risks. Moreover, as the Wales summit has
shown, the expectations of Tbilisi from the side of its partners to
create at least the outlines of a general security system, and to
involve NATO in the Caucasus affairs more, have not become true. What
are Georgia's expectations from NATO today?
Georgia did not expect to get MAP at the Wales summit, which was not
dedicated to NATO extension. Certainly, some part of the Georgian
society had such sexed up expectations from the summit. However, our
government did everything possible not to have such expectations. On
the other hand, Georgia got from the summit closer cooperation in
security sphere. Moreover, a military and training centre with NATO
instructors and certain contingent will be opened in Georgia. This
cooperation should help enhance the national defence capacity of
Georgia and come closer to the NATO standards, which will promote
Georgia's membership in NATO. Thus, the expectations of Georgia from
further integration with NATO are positive and realistic.
After Georgian Dream came to power in Georgiam Tbilisi's rhetoric
regarding Moscow has softened and certain warming of relations has
been observed. May the dialogue develop to a level necessary to make
any agreements in the security field?
Despite certain improvement of relations with Moscow after coming of
the "Georgian dream" to power in Georgia, at present the level of the
relations has not reached the needed degree for signing of the
Russia-Georgia security agreements. Moreover, I don't think that the
thaw in relations will ever reach this level of confidence. Anyway,
everything depends on Russia's actions in Ukraine. That is to say,
Russia's fate hangs in the balance just in Ukraine, either it will
remain an active member of the European politics, or the process of
its alienation will go on developing. As a result, Russia's aggressive
actions against its neighbors will grow much. That is to say,
formally, certain agreements may be reached, but they will hardly act.
May the global Russia-West confrontation spillover from Ukraine to the
territory of other post-Soviet countries that "are hesitating" about
their geo-political choice?
Georgia is not hesitating about its geo-political choice. Tbilisi
insists on the Euroatlantic integration. Certainly, Russia's actions
in Ukraine are disturbing, as a result, a threat to the security of
the post-Soviet countries is growing, especially for such countries as
Georgia and Moldova, which have got an agenda of the foreign policy
independent from Russia. But other countries as well have no reason to
live calmly. I would like simply to remind you of the statement by
president of Russia about Kazakhstan when making a speech at the youth
camp, and other examples.
In August 2014 the Defense Ministers of Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkey
- Irakli Alasania, Zakir Hasanov and Ismet Yilmaz - met in Nakhijevan.
The ministers discussed issues related to defense of communication
infrastructure, particularly, communication facilities, railway
tracks, and strategic pipelines in time of war. The participants took
a decision to hold such consultations regularly. The meeting caused a
surge of emotion in Baku, which predicts the fiasco of Armenia and
Nagorno-Karabakh. What are Tbilisi's expectations from such
anti-Armenian union?
I think it is unacceptable to call the alliance of Georgia, Turkey and
Azerbaijan an anti-Armenian alliance because Georgia is also a member
of the alliance. I want to assure you that Georgia cooperates against
no country, especially, against Armenia. Georgian does not do it even
against Russia, which is occupying Georgia's territories. As regards
the specified alliance, you perfectly know how much Georgia
appreciates its relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey.
The Turkey-Georgia-Azerbaijan corridor is of strategic importance to
Georgia. Certainly, the cooperation with these countries matters
much, especially given that Turkey is a NATO member. Notwithstanding
the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan and the conflict between
Armenia and Turkey, Georgia values its bilateral and multilateral
partner relations with all these countries.
Armenia is preparing to access EEU. Georgia has been orienting its
economy at Europe after signing DCFTA. Is it reasonable for Georgia to
refuse the possibilities of the Russian marker and how it may affect
the economic cooperation of Armenia ands Georgia?
Although a certain part of the DCFTA has been already working,
Georgia-Russia trade and economic relations are just growing.
Therefore, at this stage Georgia is not going to fully refuse the
Russian market. It has turned out that the European countries
themselves should not trade with Russia, though we do not see that,
but mutual sanctions of the European Union and Russia. So, the trade
and economic relations between Georgia and Russia may stop only if the
leadership of these countries have the will to stop them. To be more
correct, if they have a will not to continue them. Despite the new
obstacles between Tbilisi and Yerevan because of Armenia's intention
to join the Eurasian Economic Union, taking into consideration
coincidence of interests of the two countries, the Georgians and
Armenians will be able to overcome new economic barriers.