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Will NATO build military bases in Azerbaijan?
By Nazila Isgandarova
2014-09-13
Intensified tension between Ukraine and Russia and regional
instability continue to jeopardize the security of the oil resources
of the Caspian Sea and important oil and gas routes. It also triggers
the `security vacuum" in the region, which in turn invites rival
powers to come along and occupy it.
Therefore, the threat in the region has two dimensions: the threat to
the oil supply routes and the prospect of rival powers coming into the
region. In this regard, growing competition in the South Caucasus
between Russia and the Western powers is another important aspect of
Azerbaijan's security.
The main question is who will fill the security vacuum in the region.
Some analysts anticipate that the conflict in Ukraine may result in
NATO's establishment of military bases in Azerbaijan. This speculation
is doubted by many analysts due to Russia's open and explicit position
on NATO's expansion in the South Caucasus.
However, similar doubts were also expressed when NATO showed interest
in actively participating in the region in 1995-2000. Their main
argument was based on NATO Secretary-General Javier Solano's statement
after a meeting with Armenian President Robert Kocharyan in Brussels
that `the alliance was not thinking of deploying any troops in the
region.' However, the regional actors, i.e., Azerbaijan, did not
exclude the fact that NATO was interested in the security of the
pipeline.
NATO's formal involvement in the Caucasus began as early as 1990 with
the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE). Almost
immediately, as the South Caucasian states became North Atlantic
Cooperation Council (NACC) members in 1992, this forum touched upon
the conflicts in the region. For instance, the participants of the
ministerial meeting of June 5, 1992, paid significant attention to the
set of regional problems in the South Caucasus, and in 1994, NATO
launched the Partnership for Peace (PfP) project. NATO's other
program, Individual Partnership Action Plans, was launched at the
November 2002 Prague Summit and was open to countries that have the
political will and ability to deepen their relations with NATO.
In both projects, NATO's primary task in the region was to adapt its
political and military infrastructure to new threats. NATO was able to
shift from a realist-based military alliance, which was primarily
tasked with protecting the survival of the Euro-Atlantic democracies
from communism, to a security alliance geared to managing instability
and other nontraditional threats to peace and prosperity across
Europe, NATO's involvement in the region in response to a variety of
circumstances, i.e., international terrorism, religious and political
extremism and drug trafficking.
However, NATO's involvement was not helpful in solving the frozen war
between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which occupies more than 20 percent of
Azerbaijani land. The lack of NATO's involvement in solving this war,
of course, will be a minus in the organization's history because it
encouraged other similar situations in the region, such as the
situation in Ukraine.
Furthermore, due to NATO's passive presence in the region, such
involvement contributed to a new dilemma in the region that relates to
the Western concern about the rapidly developing security relationship
between Russia, Iran, China and India in the region.
The relationship with Moscow and Tehran is more problematic. Russia
and Iran have identical foreign policy positions regarding the Caspian
Sea region; therefore, the alliance between them attempts to block
NATO influence in the area and monopolize energy corridors from the
Caspian region to Europe, and most important, to prevent NATO's
intervention to protect the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline.
However, recent speculations that NATO may build military bases in
Azerbaijan suggest that the issue of security in the South Caucasus
has an importance that goes beyond the regional location of the area.
NATO's involvement is important because instability in the area may
result in the interruption of oil supplies to other parts of the
world. Hence, instability in the region may have grave economic
consequences and bring about the danger of regional war.
The security question has been intensified because of the position
occupied by the area as regards oil production. It cannot be ignored
that oil extracted from the Caspian Sea represents an alternative to
the Gulf area for the West. In addition, the oil resources of the
Caspian Sea have the potential to contribute to the economic
prosperity, energy security and stability of the region.
Therefore, after the conflict in Ukraine, the interest of other parts
of the world, particularly, the West and Russia, in Caspian Sea oil
and gas has brought a state of confrontation between the US, Russia
and Iran in the region. The rivalry between the West and regional
powers such as Russia and Iran has created a sense of potential threat
to the oil supplies to the West through the BTC. The West and Russia
try to demonstrate their military presence in the region. In this way,
threats and risks to the Caspian Sea region come from international or
regional instability.
Thus, the search for security in the South Caucasus involves
international and regional actors. The regional states and the Western
companies in the Caspian Sea rely on NATO to reduce these threats and
risks in the region.
In conclusion, the security implications in the South Caucasus include
the Caspian's importance in the context of the West's energy security.
Azerbaijan and Georgia have high expectations of NATO to address the
security challenges in the region, but NATO and its member countries
still do not have a clear strategy and appropriate methods to address
these security challenges.
*Nazila Isgandarova is a Toronto-based researcher and author of `The
Nectar of Passion.'
From: Baghdasarian
Will NATO build military bases in Azerbaijan?
By Nazila Isgandarova
2014-09-13
Intensified tension between Ukraine and Russia and regional
instability continue to jeopardize the security of the oil resources
of the Caspian Sea and important oil and gas routes. It also triggers
the `security vacuum" in the region, which in turn invites rival
powers to come along and occupy it.
Therefore, the threat in the region has two dimensions: the threat to
the oil supply routes and the prospect of rival powers coming into the
region. In this regard, growing competition in the South Caucasus
between Russia and the Western powers is another important aspect of
Azerbaijan's security.
The main question is who will fill the security vacuum in the region.
Some analysts anticipate that the conflict in Ukraine may result in
NATO's establishment of military bases in Azerbaijan. This speculation
is doubted by many analysts due to Russia's open and explicit position
on NATO's expansion in the South Caucasus.
However, similar doubts were also expressed when NATO showed interest
in actively participating in the region in 1995-2000. Their main
argument was based on NATO Secretary-General Javier Solano's statement
after a meeting with Armenian President Robert Kocharyan in Brussels
that `the alliance was not thinking of deploying any troops in the
region.' However, the regional actors, i.e., Azerbaijan, did not
exclude the fact that NATO was interested in the security of the
pipeline.
NATO's formal involvement in the Caucasus began as early as 1990 with
the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE). Almost
immediately, as the South Caucasian states became North Atlantic
Cooperation Council (NACC) members in 1992, this forum touched upon
the conflicts in the region. For instance, the participants of the
ministerial meeting of June 5, 1992, paid significant attention to the
set of regional problems in the South Caucasus, and in 1994, NATO
launched the Partnership for Peace (PfP) project. NATO's other
program, Individual Partnership Action Plans, was launched at the
November 2002 Prague Summit and was open to countries that have the
political will and ability to deepen their relations with NATO.
In both projects, NATO's primary task in the region was to adapt its
political and military infrastructure to new threats. NATO was able to
shift from a realist-based military alliance, which was primarily
tasked with protecting the survival of the Euro-Atlantic democracies
from communism, to a security alliance geared to managing instability
and other nontraditional threats to peace and prosperity across
Europe, NATO's involvement in the region in response to a variety of
circumstances, i.e., international terrorism, religious and political
extremism and drug trafficking.
However, NATO's involvement was not helpful in solving the frozen war
between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which occupies more than 20 percent of
Azerbaijani land. The lack of NATO's involvement in solving this war,
of course, will be a minus in the organization's history because it
encouraged other similar situations in the region, such as the
situation in Ukraine.
Furthermore, due to NATO's passive presence in the region, such
involvement contributed to a new dilemma in the region that relates to
the Western concern about the rapidly developing security relationship
between Russia, Iran, China and India in the region.
The relationship with Moscow and Tehran is more problematic. Russia
and Iran have identical foreign policy positions regarding the Caspian
Sea region; therefore, the alliance between them attempts to block
NATO influence in the area and monopolize energy corridors from the
Caspian region to Europe, and most important, to prevent NATO's
intervention to protect the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline.
However, recent speculations that NATO may build military bases in
Azerbaijan suggest that the issue of security in the South Caucasus
has an importance that goes beyond the regional location of the area.
NATO's involvement is important because instability in the area may
result in the interruption of oil supplies to other parts of the
world. Hence, instability in the region may have grave economic
consequences and bring about the danger of regional war.
The security question has been intensified because of the position
occupied by the area as regards oil production. It cannot be ignored
that oil extracted from the Caspian Sea represents an alternative to
the Gulf area for the West. In addition, the oil resources of the
Caspian Sea have the potential to contribute to the economic
prosperity, energy security and stability of the region.
Therefore, after the conflict in Ukraine, the interest of other parts
of the world, particularly, the West and Russia, in Caspian Sea oil
and gas has brought a state of confrontation between the US, Russia
and Iran in the region. The rivalry between the West and regional
powers such as Russia and Iran has created a sense of potential threat
to the oil supplies to the West through the BTC. The West and Russia
try to demonstrate their military presence in the region. In this way,
threats and risks to the Caspian Sea region come from international or
regional instability.
Thus, the search for security in the South Caucasus involves
international and regional actors. The regional states and the Western
companies in the Caspian Sea rely on NATO to reduce these threats and
risks in the region.
In conclusion, the security implications in the South Caucasus include
the Caspian's importance in the context of the West's energy security.
Azerbaijan and Georgia have high expectations of NATO to address the
security challenges in the region, but NATO and its member countries
still do not have a clear strategy and appropriate methods to address
these security challenges.
*Nazila Isgandarova is a Toronto-based researcher and author of `The
Nectar of Passion.'
From: Baghdasarian