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Farewell Puzzle By Stefan Fule

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  • Farewell Puzzle By Stefan Fule

    Farewell Puzzle By Stefan Fule

    Hakob Badalyan, Political Commentator
    Comments - 15 September 2014, 14:04


    Unian.net informed that Commissioner Stefan Fule has announces it is
    time to set up formal relations between the EU and the Eurasian
    Economic Union and create a Free Trade Area. His statement had been
    preceded by another interesting event. The EU and Ukraine agreed to
    postpone the implementation of DCFTA. It is an EU-Russia agreement
    rather than an EU-Ukraine agreement which was achieved in the recent
    discussion on the crisis in Ukraine.

    Some controversy is seen. On the one hand, the EU joins the United
    States to toughen sanctions against Russia and, on the other hand,
    agrees to slow down the implementation of the Association Agreement,
    which is, in fact, Russia's demand. Russia threatened Ukraine that
    implementation of DCFTA will be followed by restrictions on imports of
    Ukrainian products to Russia.

    DCFTA postponement seems to be the response to those threats. At the
    same time, Fule's statement seems to indicate "legitimization" of
    Russian threats. In fact, Fule offers the European Union to recognize
    the Eurasian Union and interact, which will, for its part, legitimize
    Russia's actions against Ukraine. After all, Putin himself suggested
    creating a unified economic area from Lisbon to Vladivostok.

    Fule seems to be speaking about this. He may be driven by the fact
    that soon Fule will leave his office. The composition of the EU
    commission will be changed, and Fule is not in the new commission
    introduced by the newly-elected president of the European Commission
    Jean Claude Junker. The composition of the new Commission has already
    been approved. Therefore, it is difficult to tell to what extent
    Fule's statement expresses the moods of the European Union and whether
    it is the personal opinion of the leaving commissioner.

    It should not be ruled out that the commissioner is already
    considering his future role in Europe and is therefore trying to make
    an attractive proposal to Russia and act as the representative of the
    Russian lobby to Europe. After all, there is such practice among
    European political personalities. Gerhardt Schroder who was the
    chancellor of the European great power actually became a Gazprom staff
    after leaving his office. Hence, there is nothing strange about this.

    At least, for the time being it is not understood what Fule is
    speaking about in terms of content and mechanism. What interaction
    with the Eurasian Union is meant when the members of the Eurasian
    State have not managed to specify and clarify relations between their
    states, and mutual claims and disagreement constantly occurs between
    them?

    On the other hand, it is not ruled out that by recognizing the
    Eurasian Union and setting up formal interaction the European Union
    expects to deepen the crisis and controversies with the Eurasian
    Union. The point is that interaction with the European Union will
    result in a negotiation process where the members of the union that
    has not formed yet will start competing for getting the maximum from
    the relations with the European Union, which may be another apple of
    discord among them. It is not ruled out that Fule's proposal is based
    on the following plan: the EU sets up interaction with the Eurasian
    Economic Union and thereby slows down the full formation of this body
    and prevents the formation of Putin's empire.

    Perhaps this is the EU's expectation from a concession regarding
    Ukraine, trying to cause deep controversies and a new object of
    competition among the members of the Eurasian Economic Union.

    At the same time, there is no doubt that Russia is trying to play
    according to the controversies within the European Union, using the
    circumstance of certain clash of interests among several countries. It
    is not a secret the leaders of the European Union have significant
    controversies, especially the United Kingdom and Germany which have
    formed camps that are not strong but have clear-cut positions.

    OF course, the controversies inside the Eurasian Union and those
    inside the European Union differ in nature and are not similar but it
    is beyond doubt that both expect to use the other's controversies for
    a longer time and more efficiently.

    And, in this case, the core issue is the economic and political
    isolation of Russia because Western controversies refer to the
    dynamics and extent of isolation, not the being or not being of the
    process.

    http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32980#sthash.I9T0tXHV.dpuf

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