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Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
Sept 21 2014
Azerbaijan is in the grip of a geopolitical confrontation
21 September 2014 - 1:52pm
Mikhail Belyaev. Exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
The bitter struggle of the West and Russia for influence in Ukraine
and other former Soviet countries leaves less space for
traditionally-neutral Azerbaijan for the conduct of its multi-vector
foreign policy. In such circumstances, Baku is consistently moving
away from the West, relying on regional cooperation with major
regional players - Moscow, Ankara and Tehran.
One after another, almost all Western foundations and NGOs have been
squeezed out of the country within the last couple of years, while
Baku firmly refused the association with the EU long before the
beginning of the crisis in Ukraine. The Azerbaijani authorities were
well aware of the forces on which funds were spent by the Western
foundations located in the republic, and the country did not want to
risk its relations with Russia. Quite naturally, Azerbaijan, which
stopped at all the germs of the "Euromaidan", is not included on the
new list of pets in Washington. One can recall that the US Senate did
not include Azerbaijan in a bill to provide a number of post-Soviet
countries with the status of allies, unlike Georgia, Ukraine and
Moldova. The actual loss of Azerbaijan in the GUAM configuration
indicates a change in the geopolitical priorities in the relations
between Baku and its Western partners.
In addition to that, anti-Western rhetoric is being tightened in the
country. During a recent visit to Azerbaijan of Dmitry Rogozin, for
the first time Baku harshly outlined its own position on the issue of
the Western sanctions against the Russian Federation.
"No one will break Russia, it will never bend, on the contrary, it
will further strengthen," Deputy Prime Minister Yaqub Ayyubov said at
a meeting with his Russian counterpart. After a couple of days,
Azerbaijani Ambassador to Russia Polat Bulbuloglu said that the West
is putting pressure on Azerbaijan because of its unwillingness to
suspend relations with Moscow. Simultaneously, the Ambassador
expressed his willingness to increase the export of Azerbaijani
state-produced agricultural products to Russia in order to replace
Western goods. The diplomat also confirmed information about the
upcoming visit to Azerbaijan of LDPR leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky. The
explicit warming in Azerbaijan's relations with the politician was
believed in government circles of the Republic to be a positive
signal. Today, the political establishment of the country shows
willingness to cooperate with the Russian politician known for his
closeness to the Kremlin.
In recent years, criticism of the double standards and insincerity of
Western policy has already already become a commonplace in the
speeches of the representatives of the ruling elite. The flames were
fanned by the resolution adopted by the European Parliament on on
September 18, in which Azerbaijan, in an unprecedentedly harsh and
peremptory form, was accused of human rights violations. In fact,
Europe categorically demanded the release from detention of all
arrested for tax evasion and espionage foir "Westerners", including
those who so far are only under investigation. Azerbaijan considers
this approach a gross interference in its domestic affairs. Baku was
also surprised by the selectivity of European lawmakers, who do not
say a word about the violations of basic rights of nearly one million
Azerbaijani refugees and internally-displaced persons.
The issue of human rights was used against Azerbaijan by the Europeans
after a recent campaign aimed at total stripping of the domestic
political field from Western agents of influence. The Azerbaijani
Foreign Ministry says it is no coincidence that this resolution was
adopted just before the ceremony of laying the foundation of the
pipeline TANAP. According to the press-secretary of the Foreign
Ministry Elman Abdullayev, it is a deliberate attempt to cause damage
to the further development of relations with the EU by the European
lawmakers with ties to Armenian lobby groups.
The head of the Azerbaijani delegation at the PACE, Samad Seyidov, has
stressed that none of the European MPs who voted for the resolution
have ever been in Azerbaijan or are aware of the processes occurring
in the country. Finally, one of the key members of the ruling party
"Yeni Azerbaijan", Siyavush Novruzov, has urged Azerbaijan to leave
the organization "Euronest"; in his opinion, the body has not become a
platform for constructive cooperation at parliamentary level, and is
being more and more used for the anti-Azerbaijani attacks.
Moving away from the West politically, Baku drew its attention not
just to the north, but also to its southern neighbour. The development
of relations with Tehran gained momentum after the election of new
President Hassan Rouhani. High-level delegations, one after another,
make reciprocal visits, negative articles and accusations in the media
of the two countries have almost disappeared, President Ilham Aliyev
visited Tehran in April and is now expecting a return visit by the
Iranian president to Azerbaijan in the fall. During the September trip
of the economic delegation of Azerbaijan headed by Minister of
Economic Development Shahin Mustafayev to Iran, Tehran invited
Azerbaijan to act as a mediator for the organization of agricultural
production in Russia. In order to increase the level of cooperation
with the transport sector, the head of the Customs Administration of
Iran, Masoud Karbasian, will soon visit Baku. In addition, officials
have made specific decisions on the construction of a new power plant
with a capacity of 1000 megawatts in the border zone. Finally, before
the end of the year the Defense Minister of Iran is also due to pay a
visit to Azerbaijan.
Iranian media also reported with reference to the Minister of
Information Technology of Iran that Azerbaijan, Turkey and Iran intend
to create a tripartite commission on economic cooperation. Given the
regular tripartite meetings of the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan,
Iran and Turkey, further alignment of regional cooperation between
Baku, Ankara and Tehran against the current geopolitical background
fits into the logic of the process.
It should be noted that the relations between Turkey and the United
States are not going through the best times. Turkish President Erdogan
hit out at Washington with charges of the destruction of Ukraine. With
such statements Erdogan indicated fundamental differences in the
American and Turkish assessments of the Ukrainian crisis. Almost
simultaneously, the closest allies Ankara and Baku defused accountable
CIA "nursist groups" in the echelons of power, which their overseas
partners also could not possibly like. Finally, one should not forget
that it was the efforts of the government of Ilham Aliyev, in
cooperation with Erdogan, that blocked the project lobbied by the
United States concerning opening the borders of Turkey and Armenia,
which ultimately served the purpose of withdrawal of Armenia from
Russia's orbit.
Obviously, for Baku, Ankara, Moscow and Tehran after the Afghan,
Iraqi, Libyan and Ukrainian precedents there are reasonable grounds to
believe that the strengthening of Western influence in the already
troubled Caucasus region is fraught with the creation of the next
hotbed of instability there. The sharp deterioration in the economic
situation in Russia, which, of course is the aim of the Western powers
in introducing increasingly tough sanctions against the country, will
not contribute to regional stability either. In this context, the
strengthening of regional cooperation and closer cooperation between
the historic neighbours seems the only possible way to counter
emerging threats from outside.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/analysis/politics/60185.html
Sept 21 2014
Azerbaijan is in the grip of a geopolitical confrontation
21 September 2014 - 1:52pm
Mikhail Belyaev. Exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
The bitter struggle of the West and Russia for influence in Ukraine
and other former Soviet countries leaves less space for
traditionally-neutral Azerbaijan for the conduct of its multi-vector
foreign policy. In such circumstances, Baku is consistently moving
away from the West, relying on regional cooperation with major
regional players - Moscow, Ankara and Tehran.
One after another, almost all Western foundations and NGOs have been
squeezed out of the country within the last couple of years, while
Baku firmly refused the association with the EU long before the
beginning of the crisis in Ukraine. The Azerbaijani authorities were
well aware of the forces on which funds were spent by the Western
foundations located in the republic, and the country did not want to
risk its relations with Russia. Quite naturally, Azerbaijan, which
stopped at all the germs of the "Euromaidan", is not included on the
new list of pets in Washington. One can recall that the US Senate did
not include Azerbaijan in a bill to provide a number of post-Soviet
countries with the status of allies, unlike Georgia, Ukraine and
Moldova. The actual loss of Azerbaijan in the GUAM configuration
indicates a change in the geopolitical priorities in the relations
between Baku and its Western partners.
In addition to that, anti-Western rhetoric is being tightened in the
country. During a recent visit to Azerbaijan of Dmitry Rogozin, for
the first time Baku harshly outlined its own position on the issue of
the Western sanctions against the Russian Federation.
"No one will break Russia, it will never bend, on the contrary, it
will further strengthen," Deputy Prime Minister Yaqub Ayyubov said at
a meeting with his Russian counterpart. After a couple of days,
Azerbaijani Ambassador to Russia Polat Bulbuloglu said that the West
is putting pressure on Azerbaijan because of its unwillingness to
suspend relations with Moscow. Simultaneously, the Ambassador
expressed his willingness to increase the export of Azerbaijani
state-produced agricultural products to Russia in order to replace
Western goods. The diplomat also confirmed information about the
upcoming visit to Azerbaijan of LDPR leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky. The
explicit warming in Azerbaijan's relations with the politician was
believed in government circles of the Republic to be a positive
signal. Today, the political establishment of the country shows
willingness to cooperate with the Russian politician known for his
closeness to the Kremlin.
In recent years, criticism of the double standards and insincerity of
Western policy has already already become a commonplace in the
speeches of the representatives of the ruling elite. The flames were
fanned by the resolution adopted by the European Parliament on on
September 18, in which Azerbaijan, in an unprecedentedly harsh and
peremptory form, was accused of human rights violations. In fact,
Europe categorically demanded the release from detention of all
arrested for tax evasion and espionage foir "Westerners", including
those who so far are only under investigation. Azerbaijan considers
this approach a gross interference in its domestic affairs. Baku was
also surprised by the selectivity of European lawmakers, who do not
say a word about the violations of basic rights of nearly one million
Azerbaijani refugees and internally-displaced persons.
The issue of human rights was used against Azerbaijan by the Europeans
after a recent campaign aimed at total stripping of the domestic
political field from Western agents of influence. The Azerbaijani
Foreign Ministry says it is no coincidence that this resolution was
adopted just before the ceremony of laying the foundation of the
pipeline TANAP. According to the press-secretary of the Foreign
Ministry Elman Abdullayev, it is a deliberate attempt to cause damage
to the further development of relations with the EU by the European
lawmakers with ties to Armenian lobby groups.
The head of the Azerbaijani delegation at the PACE, Samad Seyidov, has
stressed that none of the European MPs who voted for the resolution
have ever been in Azerbaijan or are aware of the processes occurring
in the country. Finally, one of the key members of the ruling party
"Yeni Azerbaijan", Siyavush Novruzov, has urged Azerbaijan to leave
the organization "Euronest"; in his opinion, the body has not become a
platform for constructive cooperation at parliamentary level, and is
being more and more used for the anti-Azerbaijani attacks.
Moving away from the West politically, Baku drew its attention not
just to the north, but also to its southern neighbour. The development
of relations with Tehran gained momentum after the election of new
President Hassan Rouhani. High-level delegations, one after another,
make reciprocal visits, negative articles and accusations in the media
of the two countries have almost disappeared, President Ilham Aliyev
visited Tehran in April and is now expecting a return visit by the
Iranian president to Azerbaijan in the fall. During the September trip
of the economic delegation of Azerbaijan headed by Minister of
Economic Development Shahin Mustafayev to Iran, Tehran invited
Azerbaijan to act as a mediator for the organization of agricultural
production in Russia. In order to increase the level of cooperation
with the transport sector, the head of the Customs Administration of
Iran, Masoud Karbasian, will soon visit Baku. In addition, officials
have made specific decisions on the construction of a new power plant
with a capacity of 1000 megawatts in the border zone. Finally, before
the end of the year the Defense Minister of Iran is also due to pay a
visit to Azerbaijan.
Iranian media also reported with reference to the Minister of
Information Technology of Iran that Azerbaijan, Turkey and Iran intend
to create a tripartite commission on economic cooperation. Given the
regular tripartite meetings of the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan,
Iran and Turkey, further alignment of regional cooperation between
Baku, Ankara and Tehran against the current geopolitical background
fits into the logic of the process.
It should be noted that the relations between Turkey and the United
States are not going through the best times. Turkish President Erdogan
hit out at Washington with charges of the destruction of Ukraine. With
such statements Erdogan indicated fundamental differences in the
American and Turkish assessments of the Ukrainian crisis. Almost
simultaneously, the closest allies Ankara and Baku defused accountable
CIA "nursist groups" in the echelons of power, which their overseas
partners also could not possibly like. Finally, one should not forget
that it was the efforts of the government of Ilham Aliyev, in
cooperation with Erdogan, that blocked the project lobbied by the
United States concerning opening the borders of Turkey and Armenia,
which ultimately served the purpose of withdrawal of Armenia from
Russia's orbit.
Obviously, for Baku, Ankara, Moscow and Tehran after the Afghan,
Iraqi, Libyan and Ukrainian precedents there are reasonable grounds to
believe that the strengthening of Western influence in the already
troubled Caucasus region is fraught with the creation of the next
hotbed of instability there. The sharp deterioration in the economic
situation in Russia, which, of course is the aim of the Western powers
in introducing increasingly tough sanctions against the country, will
not contribute to regional stability either. In this context, the
strengthening of regional cooperation and closer cooperation between
the historic neighbours seems the only possible way to counter
emerging threats from outside.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/analysis/politics/60185.html