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SOUTH CAUCASUS POSSIBLE ROUTE FOR IRANIAN GAS SUPPLY TO EUROPE
12:09 * 25.09.14
South Caucasus appears to be the most convenient route for exporting
the Iranian natural gas to Europe, says Garegin Chugaszyan, the
coordinator of the Pre-parliament group.
Commenting on Iranian President Hassan Rouhani's recent statement
that the country can be a reliable source of energy supply for Europe,
Chugaszyan noted that the Islamic Republic had made similar statement
repeatedly before.
"Iran's energy minister announced several years ago that there are
three routes for exporting the natural gas to Europe. One of the
routes passes across Arab countries; the second goes via Turkey and
the third - via Armenia," he told Tert.am, considering the former
scenario unrealistic in light of the ISIS operations in Middle East.
"Turkey is Iran's regional rival, so the Turkish route would make it
dependent on the country. The second most convenient route is actually
the one passing across the South Caucasus, Armenia and Georgia,"
he explained.
Chugaszyan said he knows that there is also a fourth route which
somewhat skips the Iranian side's attention. "That's the route
crossing the territory of Azerbaijan, but they do not discuss it,
even in theory. So those are the three routes Iran had declared in
advance," he noted.
Chugaszyan said he thinks that the global developments suggesting
switchover to a multi-polar world increase the role of the South
Caucasus. "So it raises the price of the South Caucasus corridor in
global terms, increasing simultaneously the price for Armenia. We
all have to realize well that with the increasing price for the
corridor, Armenia's price grows too. So we need to make up the right
conclusions," he added.
Chugaszyan said further that he doesn't underrate Russia's role in the
project. "We have here interests which coincide, as well as interests
which conflict with one another. When the Azerbaijanis were developing
the Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline, they naturally managed to convince the
Russians that it might be useful for them. Hence the negotiations
with Russia have to make Armenia's position clear," he said, stressing
the need of emphasizing Armenia's role for Russia as an ally country.
Commenting on the outcomes and impacts of the project, the political
analyst Sargis Asatryansaid he believes that the Russian factor
would reduce Iran's role to an alternative country of gas supply
(given especially the recent activeness in the Iran-West talks and
the attempts of normalizing relations).
Unlike the Pre-parliament activist, Asatryan thinks Turkey to be the
best transit country for gas supply.
"But let us not forget that Iran can supply gas to Europe through
Turkey, as the country already sells its natural gas and oil, using
Turkey's territory. They can launch a big gas pipeline when they reach
an agreement. In case of using Armenia's territory for gas supply,
the transit countries' number will increase, covering the territories
of Armenia, Georgia and the Black Sea," he said, noting that that
Armenia's involvement in the project would create extra difficulties,
with the region being considered highly sensitive for big investments.
The analyst said he expects Russia to do everything possible in the
present circumstances to maintain its monopolistic positions in Europe.
"I don't know what Russia will do as a final step but I believe they
will elaborate certain projects and become main stakeholders together
once they see that it isn't any longer possible to restrain Iran.
Asked whether he doesn't think that Azerbaijan's Southern Gas Corridor
project is a good alternative to Russia's resources, Asatryan replied,
"No matter how much Azerbaijan will try to be an alternative,
Russia is, after all, a world leader with its natural gas resources,
with Iran being the second. With Europe's gas demands increasing
by every year, it is necessary to be able to supply that quantity
of gas to the consumers. So will Azerbaijan alone manage to ensure
that supply? I don't think so. They also want to involve Middle Asian
countries -Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan - in all thus, as they also
posses oil and gas resources. The situation remains entangled, as it
is difficult to make out what solution the problem will eventually
find. Russia keeps maintaining its monopolistic positions for the
simple reason that it owns huge resources. And it actually manages
to meet that big market's demand."
Commenting on the tensions in Turkey-Iran relations, Asatryan said he
knows that issues of the kind are normally pushed to the background
when it comes to economy.
Economist Tatul Manaseryan for his part stressed Armenia's role as a
one-time Silk Road. "I think that the current geopolitical situation
offers us a good chance to develop the relations with Iran. And the
close cooperation met an understanding approach by the US in the
recent years. So it is possible to consider such a project in case
of a good organization," he noted.
Asked to comment on Russia's possible stance, the economist said he
finds that the country can combine its interests with the Iranian
project. "I see complimentary rather than conflicting projects in
this sense," he noted.
http://www.tert.am/en/news/2014/09/25/gaz2/
12:09 * 25.09.14
South Caucasus appears to be the most convenient route for exporting
the Iranian natural gas to Europe, says Garegin Chugaszyan, the
coordinator of the Pre-parliament group.
Commenting on Iranian President Hassan Rouhani's recent statement
that the country can be a reliable source of energy supply for Europe,
Chugaszyan noted that the Islamic Republic had made similar statement
repeatedly before.
"Iran's energy minister announced several years ago that there are
three routes for exporting the natural gas to Europe. One of the
routes passes across Arab countries; the second goes via Turkey and
the third - via Armenia," he told Tert.am, considering the former
scenario unrealistic in light of the ISIS operations in Middle East.
"Turkey is Iran's regional rival, so the Turkish route would make it
dependent on the country. The second most convenient route is actually
the one passing across the South Caucasus, Armenia and Georgia,"
he explained.
Chugaszyan said he knows that there is also a fourth route which
somewhat skips the Iranian side's attention. "That's the route
crossing the territory of Azerbaijan, but they do not discuss it,
even in theory. So those are the three routes Iran had declared in
advance," he noted.
Chugaszyan said he thinks that the global developments suggesting
switchover to a multi-polar world increase the role of the South
Caucasus. "So it raises the price of the South Caucasus corridor in
global terms, increasing simultaneously the price for Armenia. We
all have to realize well that with the increasing price for the
corridor, Armenia's price grows too. So we need to make up the right
conclusions," he added.
Chugaszyan said further that he doesn't underrate Russia's role in the
project. "We have here interests which coincide, as well as interests
which conflict with one another. When the Azerbaijanis were developing
the Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline, they naturally managed to convince the
Russians that it might be useful for them. Hence the negotiations
with Russia have to make Armenia's position clear," he said, stressing
the need of emphasizing Armenia's role for Russia as an ally country.
Commenting on the outcomes and impacts of the project, the political
analyst Sargis Asatryansaid he believes that the Russian factor
would reduce Iran's role to an alternative country of gas supply
(given especially the recent activeness in the Iran-West talks and
the attempts of normalizing relations).
Unlike the Pre-parliament activist, Asatryan thinks Turkey to be the
best transit country for gas supply.
"But let us not forget that Iran can supply gas to Europe through
Turkey, as the country already sells its natural gas and oil, using
Turkey's territory. They can launch a big gas pipeline when they reach
an agreement. In case of using Armenia's territory for gas supply,
the transit countries' number will increase, covering the territories
of Armenia, Georgia and the Black Sea," he said, noting that that
Armenia's involvement in the project would create extra difficulties,
with the region being considered highly sensitive for big investments.
The analyst said he expects Russia to do everything possible in the
present circumstances to maintain its monopolistic positions in Europe.
"I don't know what Russia will do as a final step but I believe they
will elaborate certain projects and become main stakeholders together
once they see that it isn't any longer possible to restrain Iran.
Asked whether he doesn't think that Azerbaijan's Southern Gas Corridor
project is a good alternative to Russia's resources, Asatryan replied,
"No matter how much Azerbaijan will try to be an alternative,
Russia is, after all, a world leader with its natural gas resources,
with Iran being the second. With Europe's gas demands increasing
by every year, it is necessary to be able to supply that quantity
of gas to the consumers. So will Azerbaijan alone manage to ensure
that supply? I don't think so. They also want to involve Middle Asian
countries -Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan - in all thus, as they also
posses oil and gas resources. The situation remains entangled, as it
is difficult to make out what solution the problem will eventually
find. Russia keeps maintaining its monopolistic positions for the
simple reason that it owns huge resources. And it actually manages
to meet that big market's demand."
Commenting on the tensions in Turkey-Iran relations, Asatryan said he
knows that issues of the kind are normally pushed to the background
when it comes to economy.
Economist Tatul Manaseryan for his part stressed Armenia's role as a
one-time Silk Road. "I think that the current geopolitical situation
offers us a good chance to develop the relations with Iran. And the
close cooperation met an understanding approach by the US in the
recent years. So it is possible to consider such a project in case
of a good organization," he noted.
Asked to comment on Russia's possible stance, the economist said he
finds that the country can combine its interests with the Iranian
project. "I see complimentary rather than conflicting projects in
this sense," he noted.
http://www.tert.am/en/news/2014/09/25/gaz2/