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RICHARD YOUNGS: NEW WAY AHEAD OF ARMENIA AND EU WON'T BE SMOOTH
April 2, 2015 17:15
Richard Youngs
Photo: ytimg.com
Yerevan /Mediamax/. Senior associate at Carnegie Endowment Richard
Youngs believes that the democracy in Armenia is moving backward,
and the way ahead of Armenia and EU is unlikely to be smooth.
Youngs wrote about it in his article entitled "Armenia as a Showcase
for the New European Neighborhood Policy?"
According to the expert, the case of Armenia shows the EU's willingness
to be flexible and adjust its standard neighborhood model.
But it also shows how this incipient adjustment does not in itself
solve the problem of how the EU can and should fashion a more effective
geostrategic identity in its East.
"The EU's current Eastern crisis started in Armenia. After more than
three years of negotiations, on September 3, 2013, Armenia pulled
out of its just-concluded Association Agreement with the EU. Instead,
Yerevan joined the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).
The EU appears to have learned some important lessons from that jolt.
For some months after September 2013, the EU was understandably
frosty toward Armenia. More recently, however, the EU's response has
been pragmatic. Most forms of cooperation have continued," noted the
author of the article.
Recalling that the EU invited Armenia to identify those elements of
the Association Agreement in which it is still interested and that
are compatible with the country's EEU commitment, Richard Youngs
believes that the way ahead is unlikely to be smooth.
"The EU might espouse demand-driven flexibility in its new approach
to the Eastern Partnership, but this does not prevent the union from
getting caught up in some very tense domestic politics in places
like Armenia.
The Armenian government seeks pragmatic areas of EU funding from
the new agreement and some areas of technical alignment. Government
officials in Yerevan are once again keener on some kind of economic
agreement with the EU, in part because Russia's financial troubles
have had a serious impact on the Armenian economy," noted the European
expert.
According to Youngs, civil society leaders argue that the replacement
agreement represents an opportunity for the EU to make democracy
support its niche priority in Armenia.
"The EU has been admirably inclusive in consulting with Armenian
civil society organizations over the new agreement. But with the union
having only just finished a preparatory scoping exercise to look at
what could feasibly be included in the agreement, many civil society
organizations criticize the EU for moving extremely slowly. The texts
of the original accord were, after all, finalized two years ago,
and it should be possible simply to take out the free trade elements
and move ahead with the new package. Civil society leaders in Yerevan
suspect that the Russia factor is once again holding several member
states (and, indeed, Armenia) back," wrote the expert.
He believes democracy in Armenia is moving backward.
"The government effectively decimated one of the main political
parties, weakening a potential counterweight to executive power.
Constitutional reforms are stalled. Civic protests have grown in
strength over the last year. The government is planning a restrictive
new NGO law, and executive control over the media and judiciary has
tightened - all concerns noted in the EU's latest progress report on
Armenia released on March 25," reads the article.
According to Richard Youngs, so the strategic dilemma remains which
kind of more flexible and tailored agreement the EU will favor and
whether the union will indulge Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan's
creeping soft authoritarianism?
"A new accord will be valuable but will not in itself significantly
reinforce the EU's political influence. This will require member states
to invest more political weight through their diplomacy in Armenia, by
engaging directly on high-level security issues," wrote Richard Youngs.
On the other hand, he thinks the replacement agreement is unlikely to
give the EU any role in Armenia's security dynamics. And this matters,
because the security context looks increasingly precarious.
http://www.mediamax.am/en/news/foreignpolicy/13719/#sthash.okr73Yzs.dpuf
April 2, 2015 17:15
Richard Youngs
Photo: ytimg.com
Yerevan /Mediamax/. Senior associate at Carnegie Endowment Richard
Youngs believes that the democracy in Armenia is moving backward,
and the way ahead of Armenia and EU is unlikely to be smooth.
Youngs wrote about it in his article entitled "Armenia as a Showcase
for the New European Neighborhood Policy?"
According to the expert, the case of Armenia shows the EU's willingness
to be flexible and adjust its standard neighborhood model.
But it also shows how this incipient adjustment does not in itself
solve the problem of how the EU can and should fashion a more effective
geostrategic identity in its East.
"The EU's current Eastern crisis started in Armenia. After more than
three years of negotiations, on September 3, 2013, Armenia pulled
out of its just-concluded Association Agreement with the EU. Instead,
Yerevan joined the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).
The EU appears to have learned some important lessons from that jolt.
For some months after September 2013, the EU was understandably
frosty toward Armenia. More recently, however, the EU's response has
been pragmatic. Most forms of cooperation have continued," noted the
author of the article.
Recalling that the EU invited Armenia to identify those elements of
the Association Agreement in which it is still interested and that
are compatible with the country's EEU commitment, Richard Youngs
believes that the way ahead is unlikely to be smooth.
"The EU might espouse demand-driven flexibility in its new approach
to the Eastern Partnership, but this does not prevent the union from
getting caught up in some very tense domestic politics in places
like Armenia.
The Armenian government seeks pragmatic areas of EU funding from
the new agreement and some areas of technical alignment. Government
officials in Yerevan are once again keener on some kind of economic
agreement with the EU, in part because Russia's financial troubles
have had a serious impact on the Armenian economy," noted the European
expert.
According to Youngs, civil society leaders argue that the replacement
agreement represents an opportunity for the EU to make democracy
support its niche priority in Armenia.
"The EU has been admirably inclusive in consulting with Armenian
civil society organizations over the new agreement. But with the union
having only just finished a preparatory scoping exercise to look at
what could feasibly be included in the agreement, many civil society
organizations criticize the EU for moving extremely slowly. The texts
of the original accord were, after all, finalized two years ago,
and it should be possible simply to take out the free trade elements
and move ahead with the new package. Civil society leaders in Yerevan
suspect that the Russia factor is once again holding several member
states (and, indeed, Armenia) back," wrote the expert.
He believes democracy in Armenia is moving backward.
"The government effectively decimated one of the main political
parties, weakening a potential counterweight to executive power.
Constitutional reforms are stalled. Civic protests have grown in
strength over the last year. The government is planning a restrictive
new NGO law, and executive control over the media and judiciary has
tightened - all concerns noted in the EU's latest progress report on
Armenia released on March 25," reads the article.
According to Richard Youngs, so the strategic dilemma remains which
kind of more flexible and tailored agreement the EU will favor and
whether the union will indulge Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan's
creeping soft authoritarianism?
"A new accord will be valuable but will not in itself significantly
reinforce the EU's political influence. This will require member states
to invest more political weight through their diplomacy in Armenia, by
engaging directly on high-level security issues," wrote Richard Youngs.
On the other hand, he thinks the replacement agreement is unlikely to
give the EU any role in Armenia's security dynamics. And this matters,
because the security context looks increasingly precarious.
http://www.mediamax.am/en/news/foreignpolicy/13719/#sthash.okr73Yzs.dpuf