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Today's Zaman, Turkey
April 5 2015
Foreign policy in shambles
Å?AHÄ°N ALPAY
April 05, 2015, Sunday
In its first two terms in power, both the domestic and foreign
policies of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government were
broadly in line with Turkey's national interests.
While the country seemed to move in the direction of consolidating a
liberal and pluralist democratic regime, foreign policies based on the
`zero problems with neighbors' (ZPN) concept proved to be highly
successful.
The ZPN paradigm, whose architect was then-foreign policy adviser and
later Foreign Minister Ahmet DavutoÄ?lu, rested briefly on the
following principles: Disputes with neighbors were to be solved
without the use or threat of force but with diplomacy and negotiation.
Peace and security would be secured through the promotion of economic
interdependence with all. Ankara was also to facilitate diplomatic,
negotiated solutions to regional disputes. ZPN was not in conflict
with or an alternative to accession to the European Union; it was to
actually help Turkey's convergence through enhanced economic growth
and stability.
The ZPN paradigm did in fact serve improved relations with all
neighbors on an unexpected scale. Relations with Syria and Iraqi Kurds
changed from hostile to friendly. War with Greece became unthinkable,
even if bilateral disputes remained unresolved. Steps were taken
toward a solution on Cyprus and normalization with Armenia. Ankara
spent considerable effort on peace between Israel and the Palestinians
on the one hand and Syria and Israel on the other. ZPN policies
greatly enhanced Turkey's international prestige, and Turkey, as a
stable democracy negotiating for membership in the EU, began to be
viewed as a model country for the Muslim world.
The ZPN paradigm was based largely on the assumption of stable regimes
in the Middle East and did not foresee the toppling of autocratic
regimes with the so-called Arab Spring, now turned winter. It thus
required adjusting to the new circumstances. The AKP government,
however, instead abandoned ZPN altogether.
The general election of 2011 in Turkey, which coincided with the
upheavals in the Arab world, led to drastic changes in both the
domestic and foreign policies of the AKP. The AKP government, while
assuming an increasingly arbitrary and authoritarian orientation at
home, adopted an entirely new approach in foreign policy, largely
based on the assumption that the autocratic Arab regimes would be
replaced by popular governments led by parties affiliated with the
Muslim Brotherhood, enabling Ankara to enhance its influence in the
region through its close relations with these parties and thus assume
the leadership of the Sunni Muslim world.
Today, on the eve of the general election of 2015, due to growing
authoritarianism and political polarization under the leadership of
President Recep Tayyip ErdoÄ?an, Turkey is faced with the rising risk
of serious instability. Foreign relations have worsened in almost all
directions. Relations with Syria, Egypt and Libya have all broken off,
while even Tunisia has recently accused Ankara of `supporting
terrorism.' Diplomatic relations with Israel are at the lowest level
since 2009, with only growing trade between the two sides. There are
no parties in the region outside of Hamas, Iraqi Kurds and Qatar with
which Ankara has good relations.
In the current crisis over Yemen, ErdoÄ?an (for inexplicable reasons)
-- in the company of Gen. Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt, whom he has
antagonized -- took sides with Saudi Arabia and upset Tehran (which he
will soon visit) by accusing Iran of trying to establish dominance in
the region. The nuclear deal to be finalized between the West and Iran
is likely to increase the influence of the latter in the region and
may bolster the position of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, whose overthrow
ErdoÄ?an has openly demanded. Ankara today finds itself further away
from a solution on Cyprus and normalization with Armenia. Relations
with the United States have soured, and those with the EU are at risk
of a total breakdown. It may be said that it has been decades since
Ankara has been internationally isolated to such an extent.
It would not be a prophecy to say that much trouble lies ahead for
Turkey unless it manages to refocus on democratization and foreign
policy based on the abandoned ZPN concept.
http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist/sahin-alpay/foreign-policy-in-shambles_377175.html
From: A. Papazian
April 5 2015
Foreign policy in shambles
Å?AHÄ°N ALPAY
April 05, 2015, Sunday
In its first two terms in power, both the domestic and foreign
policies of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government were
broadly in line with Turkey's national interests.
While the country seemed to move in the direction of consolidating a
liberal and pluralist democratic regime, foreign policies based on the
`zero problems with neighbors' (ZPN) concept proved to be highly
successful.
The ZPN paradigm, whose architect was then-foreign policy adviser and
later Foreign Minister Ahmet DavutoÄ?lu, rested briefly on the
following principles: Disputes with neighbors were to be solved
without the use or threat of force but with diplomacy and negotiation.
Peace and security would be secured through the promotion of economic
interdependence with all. Ankara was also to facilitate diplomatic,
negotiated solutions to regional disputes. ZPN was not in conflict
with or an alternative to accession to the European Union; it was to
actually help Turkey's convergence through enhanced economic growth
and stability.
The ZPN paradigm did in fact serve improved relations with all
neighbors on an unexpected scale. Relations with Syria and Iraqi Kurds
changed from hostile to friendly. War with Greece became unthinkable,
even if bilateral disputes remained unresolved. Steps were taken
toward a solution on Cyprus and normalization with Armenia. Ankara
spent considerable effort on peace between Israel and the Palestinians
on the one hand and Syria and Israel on the other. ZPN policies
greatly enhanced Turkey's international prestige, and Turkey, as a
stable democracy negotiating for membership in the EU, began to be
viewed as a model country for the Muslim world.
The ZPN paradigm was based largely on the assumption of stable regimes
in the Middle East and did not foresee the toppling of autocratic
regimes with the so-called Arab Spring, now turned winter. It thus
required adjusting to the new circumstances. The AKP government,
however, instead abandoned ZPN altogether.
The general election of 2011 in Turkey, which coincided with the
upheavals in the Arab world, led to drastic changes in both the
domestic and foreign policies of the AKP. The AKP government, while
assuming an increasingly arbitrary and authoritarian orientation at
home, adopted an entirely new approach in foreign policy, largely
based on the assumption that the autocratic Arab regimes would be
replaced by popular governments led by parties affiliated with the
Muslim Brotherhood, enabling Ankara to enhance its influence in the
region through its close relations with these parties and thus assume
the leadership of the Sunni Muslim world.
Today, on the eve of the general election of 2015, due to growing
authoritarianism and political polarization under the leadership of
President Recep Tayyip ErdoÄ?an, Turkey is faced with the rising risk
of serious instability. Foreign relations have worsened in almost all
directions. Relations with Syria, Egypt and Libya have all broken off,
while even Tunisia has recently accused Ankara of `supporting
terrorism.' Diplomatic relations with Israel are at the lowest level
since 2009, with only growing trade between the two sides. There are
no parties in the region outside of Hamas, Iraqi Kurds and Qatar with
which Ankara has good relations.
In the current crisis over Yemen, ErdoÄ?an (for inexplicable reasons)
-- in the company of Gen. Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt, whom he has
antagonized -- took sides with Saudi Arabia and upset Tehran (which he
will soon visit) by accusing Iran of trying to establish dominance in
the region. The nuclear deal to be finalized between the West and Iran
is likely to increase the influence of the latter in the region and
may bolster the position of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, whose overthrow
ErdoÄ?an has openly demanded. Ankara today finds itself further away
from a solution on Cyprus and normalization with Armenia. Relations
with the United States have soured, and those with the EU are at risk
of a total breakdown. It may be said that it has been decades since
Ankara has been internationally isolated to such an extent.
It would not be a prophecy to say that much trouble lies ahead for
Turkey unless it manages to refocus on democratization and foreign
policy based on the abandoned ZPN concept.
http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist/sahin-alpay/foreign-policy-in-shambles_377175.html
From: A. Papazian