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The Bomb That Did Not Detonate

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  • The Bomb That Did Not Detonate

    THE BOMB THAT DID NOT DETONATE

    Mirror Spectator
    Editorial 4-11 April 2015

    By Edmond Y. Azadian

    Iran's nuclear program that was in process to develop that country's
    first bomb had created an explosive situation throughout the Middle
    East and in many ways it impacted relations in the region. The
    standoff between Iran and Israel defined not only regional politics
    but also international relations. Iran's bombastic leaders in the
    past only provided ammunition to Israel's maximalists to justify a
    pre-emptive strike and draw reluctant leadership in Washington into
    the ensuing conflict.

    Two years of intense negotiations between the Big Six (US, Russia,
    China, Germany, France and Britain) and Iran finally yielded some
    positive results, in Lausanne, Switzerland. Iran agreed to scale
    back its nuclear program for five to 10 years and accept intrusive
    international inspections. In return, the US and the international
    community promised to lift the sanctions which have crippled Iran's
    economy.

    With the prospects of a better life, there is elation in Tehran's
    streets, but Iranian hardliners as well as President Obama's domestic
    opponents, not to say anything about Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin
    Netanyahu, all oppose the deal.

    Under the accord, which will be finalized before June 30, Iran has
    agreed to reduce the number of operating centrifuges by two-thirds,
    to 5,600 and to cut its current stockpile of low-enriched uranium
    from 10,000 kilograms to 300, for 15 years.

    While President Obama hailed the agreement as "once-in-a-lifetime
    opportunity" to curb the spread of nuclear weapons in a dangerous
    region, Israel's premier responded that "not a single centrifuge is
    destroyed" in his state of the union speech, "not a single nuclear
    facility is shut down, including the underground facilities that they
    have built illicitly. Thousands of centrifuges will keep spinning,
    enriching uranium. That is a very bad deal."

    What Mr. Netanyahu intended to say but didn't was completed by George
    W. Bush's former ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton,
    who had bullied and insulted every decent diplomat at the UN forum
    during his contentious tenure there. In an op-ed in the New York Times,
    Bolton dispensed his own remedy to Iran's nuclear problem: he plainly
    advocated bombing Iran, regardless of the consequences, completely
    ignoring the fact that that kind of neocon might-first policy has
    turned the Middle East into a blood bath without an end in sight.

    Mr. Netanyahu's speech at the US Congress was an affront to President
    Obama, with the implication that he has America's legislative body
    in his pocket and he can cripple the executive's actions anytime he
    wishes. Mr. Netanyahu's meddling in the US domestic politics turned
    the Iran deal into a partisan issue, pitting the Republicans against
    the Democrats. Forty seven Republican Senators wrote a threatening
    letter to Iran's leadership, undercutting the authority of President
    Obama. While his trip abroad right before the election might have
    secured Mr. Netanyahu another term at the helm of his country with
    the support of the ultra-right, his prestige around the world as well
    as with the moderate and liberal Israelis plummeted.

    Mr. Obama himself could not have pursued an independent policy
    vis-a-vis the maximalist leader of Israel, had it not been for the
    divisions Mr. Netanyahu had created within the Jewish community itself.

    Indeed, a powerful Jewish lobbying firm, the J Street Group, privately
    and publicly tried to block Mr. Netanyahu's speech at the Congress,
    telling him that taking the US public for granted may engender a
    backlash against Israel. Although J Street could not stop the Israeli
    prime minister's march on Capitol Hill, at least it showed some
    solidarity with Mr. Obama in his squaring off with the Israeli leader.

    Despite Mr. Obama's conciliatory call to the Israeli prime minister,
    the latter has been continuing his vitriolic attack on the Iran deal.

    Mr. Netanyahu has conceded, deep down, that the deal enjoys the
    consensus of the international community, but his eyes are already
    behind that deal.

    The next political step is on the Palestinian issue. After his
    flip-flop on the two-state solution, the Israeli leader will face
    once more the demands of the international community. Indeed, France
    will soon place on the UN Security Council agenda the issue of
    Palestinian statehood. Mr. Netanyahu will extract a price from the
    Obama administration for toning down his rhetoric on the Iran deal;
    he will expect the Obama administration to use its veto power to
    shoot down the French proposal.

    Mr. Obama has invited prominent journalist Thomas L. Friedman to
    the White House to explain to him the Obama doctrine. Mr. Friedman
    is a deft and suave salesman of Israeli policies. He is a smooth,
    authoritative and convincing columnist and under the pretense of
    criticizing the excesses of the Israeli political leadership, he can
    dexterously defend them and justify their policies.

    According to Mr. Friedman's article in the New York Times, Mr. Obama
    perceives the Iran deal within the context of his world vision. The
    US does not need to convince anyone that it is the strongest power on
    earth. Based on that premise, President Obama has relaxed relations
    with Burma, Cuba and now with Iran. We may also add his reluctance
    to jump into the Syrian melee or participating (directly) in the
    aggression against Libya. That would allow the parties under sanctions
    to cut deals with the US and abide by the terms, recognizing full
    well the consequences of the alternative.

    The Obama doctrine has contributed to the relaxation of tensions in
    many regions, Russia remains one sore point where it seems, entrenched
    neocons and Cold War hawks have still their tight grip.

    US and Iran pursue a very intricate policy with each other; while
    negotiating a major nuclear deal for a peaceful region, the US and Iran
    were fighting each other on the opposing sides in Syria, supporting
    opposing proxies in Yemen (Tehran bankrolling Houthi rebels, the US
    supporting Saudi airstrikes) and in Iraq war tacitly cooperative to
    defeat the ISIS in Tikrit.

    Once the nuclear deal is sealed in June, Iran will emerge as a major
    power in the Middle East, overshadowing Saudi Arabia and its perennial
    rival, Turkey. That is why Ankara has been criticizing Tehran and
    has joined deposed Yemeni President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi in its
    Yemeni campaign.

    Armenia and Iran have been on friendly terms but they have not
    utilized the full potential of their cooperation because Iran was
    under sanctions and considered a pariah nation. Although Washington
    understood Armenia's limited options in dealing with Iran, their
    cooperation remained suspect in the eyes of American leaders.

    Should the present deal prove to be a workable solution, Iran may
    interact with regional and major powers in resolving many other
    intractable issues. One such issue may be Azerbaijan's pretensions
    on Northern Iranian territory.

    Armenia welcomed the framework agreement on Iran's nuclear program.

    The deal "gives an opportunity to reach a comprehensive settlement,"
    said Armenia's Foreign Minister Eduard Nalbandian. "The sanctions have
    inhibited our relations with Iran," echoed Deputy Foreign Minister
    Shavarsh Kocharian.

    According to government data, last year the volume of trade between
    the two countries was $291 million, which amounted to only 5 percent
    of Armenia's total foreign trade.

    The sanctions have put on hold the implementation of Armenian-Iranian
    energy projects, such as the $350-million construction of a major
    hydroelectric plant on the Arax River. The two countries also plan
    to build a high-voltage transmission line that will enable Armenia to
    export more electricity to Iran and import larger volumes of Iranian
    natural gas. Tourism also has a great potential, as Armenia being
    an open society will offer more attractive alternatives to Iranian
    travelers.

    Above all, Iran's political rehabilitation will tame Turkey's
    pan-Turkic ambitions in the region and will act as a balancing bulwark
    in Caucasian politics.

    Israel and the US are more worried about the threat of an Iranian
    nuclear bomb. But imagine what the fallout would be for Armenia and
    in the entire region if Mr. Netanyahu had the opportunity for his
    "pre-emptive strike" or trigger-happy John Bolton and his ilk were
    in power in Washington.

    Fortunately the Iranian bomb was not manufactured and Mr. Bolton's
    bomb did not detonate and therefore the region can enjoy the benefits
    of a peaceful prospect.

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