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INTERNET PRESS-CONFERENCE WITH SENIOR RESEARCH FELLOW AND THE HEAD OF THE 'EU FOREIGN POLICY' AND 'POLITICS AND INSTITUTIONS' UNITS OF CEPS STEVEN BLOCKMANS (BELGIUM)
Steven Blockmans
Senior research fellow, the head of the 'EU foreign policy' and
'politics and institutions' units of CEPS (Belgium) Belgium
On April 16 an Internet press-conference for Armenian media with
senior research fellow and the head of the 'EU foreign policy'
and 'politics and institutions' units of CEPS Steven Blockmans
(Belgium) was held on following topics: Current processes of the
Eastern Partnership Program, as well associated with Armenia, despite
the fact of integration into the Eurasian Economic Union; Relations
between Russia and the European institutions.
These "first-hand" comments Armenian journalists will publish in
their media outlets.
The internet press-conference with Steven Blockmans was organized
within the framework of the project "Topical Dialogues on the New
Integration Agenda of Armenia" of the "Region" Research Center
supported by U.S. Embassy Public Affairs Section.
David Stepanyan, www.arminfo.am
- Regardless of Armenia's membership to the EEU, the European officials
regularly speak of continuing the partnership with Armenia in a number
of directions, practically as equal to other Eastern Partnership member
states. Shall we expect impulses in the given direction exclusively
within the frames of the Eastern Partnership or will other instruments
be employed, too?
Answer-See answer below, to first question by the 168 Zham newspaper.
- The establishment of acustoms point on the border between Russia
and Belarus once again revealed the shortcomings of the EEU and the
gap between real politic and the integration projects with Moscow. Do
you think we can say that the Eurasian integration is still topical
and is it the major instrument employed by the Kremlin to counteract
Eastern Partnership?
Answer- The EEU was devised, in part, as a competitive regional
integration project to that offered by the EU. Taking the data
available for the early stages of the European integration process
as a benchmark, the results for the Russian-led Customs Union and
the Common Economic Space point to a rather unfavorable outlook for
Eurasian economic integration. Politically, Putin's Russia may have
been able to sway countries like Armenia away from the EU and towards
the EEU through the use of economic pressure and barely concealed
security threats. But an integration process which is built on fear
and extortion is unlikely to be more successful than a model which
is based on shared interests and a willingness to pool and share the
execution of sovereign powers.
- Do you think the agreements achieved on the Iran nuclear program
in Lausanne by the Great Six will open up new possibilities for the
regional policy of Tehran in relation to South Caucasus, the Caspian
region, and its cooperation with the RF? And what is the EU's reaction
to this issue, in general?
Answer- The JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Regarding
the Islamic Republic of Iran's Nuclear Program) agreed to at the
beginning of this month is a first step towards the conclusion of
a final deal by June. It is, however, not certain whether the P5+1
and Iran will be able to agree such a final deal, especially if one
considers the differences in how the JCPOA has been received between
different constituencies in the US and Iran. If cool heads prevail
and a solution is found on how to deal with the Iranian nuclear file,
then this may lead a normalization of relations of sorts. Sanctions
will be lifted, Iran will come out of the cold internationally, play
a bigger political role regionally, and strike up new commercial ties
with neighboring and EU states alike. EU member states will, without
exception, welcome such developments and try to benefit from them.
- The West currently accuses Russia of waging a "hybrid war" against
Ukraine. In reality, it appears that Moscow has only adopted a
technique that has long been used by the United States. What do you
think the prospects for the resolution of the Ukrainian problem are
that would not largely go against the interests of the European Union?
Answer- For the EU, the Minsk II Agreement still presents the best
scenario for returning to sanity and normality, even if constitutional
reform by Kyiv, with decentralization to include special and permanent
provisions for the separatist regions, is a tall order to complete
before the end of 2015. The open question is whether Vladimir Putin
is really interested in it - as against careering along thetrack of
the embattled authoritarian leader who looks to 'patriotic', foreign
military adventuresto sustain his popularity at home.The strategic
context has changed since Minsk I, in economic and security terms. The
sanctions,coupled with the huge decline in the oil price, are driving
Russia into recession and rapiderosion of its financial reserves.
Putin's line seems to be that the recession will be over in twoyears,
with recovery of the oil price, and in the meantime Russia has
reserves enough. Butmajor economic figures in Moscow (such as the
former finance minister Alexei Kudrin andformer economy minister
German Gref) are warning that Russia's economic-policy problemsgo far
deeper. The Russian people may be prepared to endure hardship stoically
but economicisolation while evading the need for modernization
is ultimately unsustainable. Putin has to calculate the stakes and
ponder the costs of his Novorossiya campaign and the law of unexpected
consequences. And so the 17 hours of non-stop negotiation in Minsk
through the night of February 11-12th may have been a turning point,
when strategic perspectives came more vividly into focus while the
local details of Minsk II were thrashed out. The sceptics have a lot
of evidence on their side. But the strategic context has changed more
than the wording of the texts.
AraksMartirosyan, The 168 Zhamnewspaper, www.168.am
- Mr Blockman, last month High Representative for Foreign Affairs and
Security Policy/Vice-President of the Commission Federica Mogherini
and Commissioner for European Neighbourhood Policy and Enlargement
Negotiations Johannes Hahn launched a consultation on the future of
the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP). They stressed that it is
now essential to undertake a fundamental review of the principles
on which the policy is based, to reconsider its scope and the way
its instruments should be used in. Mogerini and Hahn emphasized the
importance of a differentiated approach towards EaP countries. Taking
into consideration this new formula, what can Armenia expect from
the EU?
Answer -Ever since President's Sargsyan's astonishing volte-face,
the EU and Armenia have been in a process of trying to rework
the failed Association Agreement. At this stage, it is difficult
to predict how much of this agreement can be salvaged in order to
replace the outdated Partnership and Cooperation Agreement. For now,
the visa liberalization process and Armenia's signing up to the
European Common Aviation Agreement and the European Commission's
'Horizon 2020' research programme are the sole deliverablesexpected
from the Riga Summit on 21-22 May 2015.
- Armenia has already joined the EEU, but Armenia also wants to
continue high political relations with the EU just asit was two years
ago, when Armenia was negotiating over the AA with the EU. Now the
AA is not possible any more, but to your mind what options are still
available if Armenia wants to have high level relations with the EU
unlike other EaP countries, for example Belarus and Azerbaijan?
Answer -The annual EU-Armenia Cooperation Council remains in place
and continues to provide a platform for high-level talks between
the Armenian Minister of Foreign Affairs Edward Nalbandian and High
Representative Federica Mogherini, European Commissioner Johannes Hahn,
and the Minister of Foreign Affairs holding the rotating Presidency
of the Council of the EU (currently Latvia). Armenia also continues
to participate at the highest political level in the multilateral
institutions of the Eastern Partnership.
- Armenia has decided to join the EEU because of its security problems
(the NK conflict and its closed borders with Turkey) and Russa's
security guarantees to Armenia though they never work, as many experts
say, Armenia still couldn't refuse Moscow's offer to join the EEU. We
know that the EU is giving security guarantees to its members only,
but shouldn't the EU consider the possibility of giving garantees to
EaP countries targeted by Moscow too?
Answer- The EU is a soft power. It does currently not have the
strategic autonomy and military capabilities to offer any hard
security guarantees to EaP countries targeted by Moscow. That said,
Russia's shock to the European security order has triggered a new
debate in capitals of member states and at the EU's headquarters
about the need to build up a military autonomy for the EU to protect
its interests in its strategic neighborhood. The European Council in
June is expected to discuss new plans for member states to pool and
share their defense planning, budgets and capabilities. Just like we
have seen the emergence of an Energy Union in February, partially in
response to Gazprom's unpredictable behavior over the past years, we
may now be seeing the initial steps towards the creation of a future
European Defence Union which acts complementary to NATO insofar as
territorial defense is concerned and in an autonomous capacity insofar
as unique EU interest in the neighborhood are concerned.
Tatev Harutyunyan, The Aravot newspaper, www.aravot.am
- Mr. Blockmans, do you agree with Andrej Didenko, Human Rights Focal
Point and EU Liaison Officer on Human Rights at the EU Delegation to
Armenia, that Armenia has made limited progress in the implementation
of EU Neighborhood policy Action plan? Don't you think that this
is due to the fact that Armenia has joined the EEU and has to face
some restrictions?
Answer-
- Some American analysts claim that Armenia should not expect any
security guarantees from the West for it has favored Moscow in its
selection. Consequently, what expectations shall Armenia have from
Europe?
Answer-See my answer to the last question by the 168 Zham newspaper.
ArtakBarseghyan, Public Radio of Armenia, www.armradio.am
- Mr. Blockmans,what do you think of the prospects of Armenia - EU
relations in light of the reorganization of the EU Neighborhood policy?
Answer - See answer below, to first question by the 168 Zham
newspaper. In addition, I can say that the EaP summit at Riga will
provide the first elements for the review of the European Neighborhood
Policy which is expected to be unveiled in October.
- Do experts in Brussels think the development and deepening of the
political dialogue and the conclusion of a new Action Plan, designed
for the period until 2017, with Armenia possible?
Answer-Yes, but (in light of my answer to first question by the
168 Zham newspaper) I expect this bilateral political dialogue and
future Action Plan to be far less ambitious than those with Ukraine,
Moldova and Georgia.
- Towhatextentmaythecontradictionsbetween Brussels and Moscow in
light of the Ukrainian developments affect the position of the EU in
the countries of South Caucasus?
Answer- In principle, the EU's strategic and economic interests in
the South Caucasus remain the same, irrespective of the dispute with
Russia over the latter's destabilizing role in Ukraine. However, the
position of the EU towards Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia is liable
to change negatively as a result of Russia's actions on the ground
(see the association and integration agreements with Abkhazia, South
Ossetia) and in the Black Sea (i.e. de facto extension of territorial
waters by Russia) or as a consequence of a different political
outlook espoused by the leaderships of the countries concerned (see
Armenia's decision to pull the plug on the Association Agreement). On
the other hand, after the debacle in Ukraine and the failure of the
Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius, the EU is keen to reaffirm
its commitment to all Eastern Partnership countries and to prelaunch
a positive agenda at the summit in Riga in May.
KarineAsatryan, www.a1plus.am
- On what conditions will the EU sign a new cooperation agreement
with Armenia? Armenian officials claim that the Europeans already
demonstrate proper understanding of Armenia's decision to join the
EEU. Is there such a tendency and how is it displayed?
Answer- See my answer to first question by the 168 Zham newspaper. The
conditions for signing a new cooperation agreement will be essentially
the same as those for the failed Association Agreement: an adherence
expressed by Armenia to the values, freedoms and rights espoused by
the European Union, as indeed general principles of international law,
and a commitment to deepen political and security cooperation with
the EU and regional partners in the Eastern Partnership.
http://www.regioncenter.info/en/Internet-press-conference-with-Steven-Blockmans-eng-Interviews
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Steven Blockmans
Senior research fellow, the head of the 'EU foreign policy' and
'politics and institutions' units of CEPS (Belgium) Belgium
On April 16 an Internet press-conference for Armenian media with
senior research fellow and the head of the 'EU foreign policy'
and 'politics and institutions' units of CEPS Steven Blockmans
(Belgium) was held on following topics: Current processes of the
Eastern Partnership Program, as well associated with Armenia, despite
the fact of integration into the Eurasian Economic Union; Relations
between Russia and the European institutions.
These "first-hand" comments Armenian journalists will publish in
their media outlets.
The internet press-conference with Steven Blockmans was organized
within the framework of the project "Topical Dialogues on the New
Integration Agenda of Armenia" of the "Region" Research Center
supported by U.S. Embassy Public Affairs Section.
David Stepanyan, www.arminfo.am
- Regardless of Armenia's membership to the EEU, the European officials
regularly speak of continuing the partnership with Armenia in a number
of directions, practically as equal to other Eastern Partnership member
states. Shall we expect impulses in the given direction exclusively
within the frames of the Eastern Partnership or will other instruments
be employed, too?
Answer-See answer below, to first question by the 168 Zham newspaper.
- The establishment of acustoms point on the border between Russia
and Belarus once again revealed the shortcomings of the EEU and the
gap between real politic and the integration projects with Moscow. Do
you think we can say that the Eurasian integration is still topical
and is it the major instrument employed by the Kremlin to counteract
Eastern Partnership?
Answer- The EEU was devised, in part, as a competitive regional
integration project to that offered by the EU. Taking the data
available for the early stages of the European integration process
as a benchmark, the results for the Russian-led Customs Union and
the Common Economic Space point to a rather unfavorable outlook for
Eurasian economic integration. Politically, Putin's Russia may have
been able to sway countries like Armenia away from the EU and towards
the EEU through the use of economic pressure and barely concealed
security threats. But an integration process which is built on fear
and extortion is unlikely to be more successful than a model which
is based on shared interests and a willingness to pool and share the
execution of sovereign powers.
- Do you think the agreements achieved on the Iran nuclear program
in Lausanne by the Great Six will open up new possibilities for the
regional policy of Tehran in relation to South Caucasus, the Caspian
region, and its cooperation with the RF? And what is the EU's reaction
to this issue, in general?
Answer- The JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Regarding
the Islamic Republic of Iran's Nuclear Program) agreed to at the
beginning of this month is a first step towards the conclusion of
a final deal by June. It is, however, not certain whether the P5+1
and Iran will be able to agree such a final deal, especially if one
considers the differences in how the JCPOA has been received between
different constituencies in the US and Iran. If cool heads prevail
and a solution is found on how to deal with the Iranian nuclear file,
then this may lead a normalization of relations of sorts. Sanctions
will be lifted, Iran will come out of the cold internationally, play
a bigger political role regionally, and strike up new commercial ties
with neighboring and EU states alike. EU member states will, without
exception, welcome such developments and try to benefit from them.
- The West currently accuses Russia of waging a "hybrid war" against
Ukraine. In reality, it appears that Moscow has only adopted a
technique that has long been used by the United States. What do you
think the prospects for the resolution of the Ukrainian problem are
that would not largely go against the interests of the European Union?
Answer- For the EU, the Minsk II Agreement still presents the best
scenario for returning to sanity and normality, even if constitutional
reform by Kyiv, with decentralization to include special and permanent
provisions for the separatist regions, is a tall order to complete
before the end of 2015. The open question is whether Vladimir Putin
is really interested in it - as against careering along thetrack of
the embattled authoritarian leader who looks to 'patriotic', foreign
military adventuresto sustain his popularity at home.The strategic
context has changed since Minsk I, in economic and security terms. The
sanctions,coupled with the huge decline in the oil price, are driving
Russia into recession and rapiderosion of its financial reserves.
Putin's line seems to be that the recession will be over in twoyears,
with recovery of the oil price, and in the meantime Russia has
reserves enough. Butmajor economic figures in Moscow (such as the
former finance minister Alexei Kudrin andformer economy minister
German Gref) are warning that Russia's economic-policy problemsgo far
deeper. The Russian people may be prepared to endure hardship stoically
but economicisolation while evading the need for modernization
is ultimately unsustainable. Putin has to calculate the stakes and
ponder the costs of his Novorossiya campaign and the law of unexpected
consequences. And so the 17 hours of non-stop negotiation in Minsk
through the night of February 11-12th may have been a turning point,
when strategic perspectives came more vividly into focus while the
local details of Minsk II were thrashed out. The sceptics have a lot
of evidence on their side. But the strategic context has changed more
than the wording of the texts.
AraksMartirosyan, The 168 Zhamnewspaper, www.168.am
- Mr Blockman, last month High Representative for Foreign Affairs and
Security Policy/Vice-President of the Commission Federica Mogherini
and Commissioner for European Neighbourhood Policy and Enlargement
Negotiations Johannes Hahn launched a consultation on the future of
the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP). They stressed that it is
now essential to undertake a fundamental review of the principles
on which the policy is based, to reconsider its scope and the way
its instruments should be used in. Mogerini and Hahn emphasized the
importance of a differentiated approach towards EaP countries. Taking
into consideration this new formula, what can Armenia expect from
the EU?
Answer -Ever since President's Sargsyan's astonishing volte-face,
the EU and Armenia have been in a process of trying to rework
the failed Association Agreement. At this stage, it is difficult
to predict how much of this agreement can be salvaged in order to
replace the outdated Partnership and Cooperation Agreement. For now,
the visa liberalization process and Armenia's signing up to the
European Common Aviation Agreement and the European Commission's
'Horizon 2020' research programme are the sole deliverablesexpected
from the Riga Summit on 21-22 May 2015.
- Armenia has already joined the EEU, but Armenia also wants to
continue high political relations with the EU just asit was two years
ago, when Armenia was negotiating over the AA with the EU. Now the
AA is not possible any more, but to your mind what options are still
available if Armenia wants to have high level relations with the EU
unlike other EaP countries, for example Belarus and Azerbaijan?
Answer -The annual EU-Armenia Cooperation Council remains in place
and continues to provide a platform for high-level talks between
the Armenian Minister of Foreign Affairs Edward Nalbandian and High
Representative Federica Mogherini, European Commissioner Johannes Hahn,
and the Minister of Foreign Affairs holding the rotating Presidency
of the Council of the EU (currently Latvia). Armenia also continues
to participate at the highest political level in the multilateral
institutions of the Eastern Partnership.
- Armenia has decided to join the EEU because of its security problems
(the NK conflict and its closed borders with Turkey) and Russa's
security guarantees to Armenia though they never work, as many experts
say, Armenia still couldn't refuse Moscow's offer to join the EEU. We
know that the EU is giving security guarantees to its members only,
but shouldn't the EU consider the possibility of giving garantees to
EaP countries targeted by Moscow too?
Answer- The EU is a soft power. It does currently not have the
strategic autonomy and military capabilities to offer any hard
security guarantees to EaP countries targeted by Moscow. That said,
Russia's shock to the European security order has triggered a new
debate in capitals of member states and at the EU's headquarters
about the need to build up a military autonomy for the EU to protect
its interests in its strategic neighborhood. The European Council in
June is expected to discuss new plans for member states to pool and
share their defense planning, budgets and capabilities. Just like we
have seen the emergence of an Energy Union in February, partially in
response to Gazprom's unpredictable behavior over the past years, we
may now be seeing the initial steps towards the creation of a future
European Defence Union which acts complementary to NATO insofar as
territorial defense is concerned and in an autonomous capacity insofar
as unique EU interest in the neighborhood are concerned.
Tatev Harutyunyan, The Aravot newspaper, www.aravot.am
- Mr. Blockmans, do you agree with Andrej Didenko, Human Rights Focal
Point and EU Liaison Officer on Human Rights at the EU Delegation to
Armenia, that Armenia has made limited progress in the implementation
of EU Neighborhood policy Action plan? Don't you think that this
is due to the fact that Armenia has joined the EEU and has to face
some restrictions?
Answer-
- Some American analysts claim that Armenia should not expect any
security guarantees from the West for it has favored Moscow in its
selection. Consequently, what expectations shall Armenia have from
Europe?
Answer-See my answer to the last question by the 168 Zham newspaper.
ArtakBarseghyan, Public Radio of Armenia, www.armradio.am
- Mr. Blockmans,what do you think of the prospects of Armenia - EU
relations in light of the reorganization of the EU Neighborhood policy?
Answer - See answer below, to first question by the 168 Zham
newspaper. In addition, I can say that the EaP summit at Riga will
provide the first elements for the review of the European Neighborhood
Policy which is expected to be unveiled in October.
- Do experts in Brussels think the development and deepening of the
political dialogue and the conclusion of a new Action Plan, designed
for the period until 2017, with Armenia possible?
Answer-Yes, but (in light of my answer to first question by the
168 Zham newspaper) I expect this bilateral political dialogue and
future Action Plan to be far less ambitious than those with Ukraine,
Moldova and Georgia.
- Towhatextentmaythecontradictionsbetween Brussels and Moscow in
light of the Ukrainian developments affect the position of the EU in
the countries of South Caucasus?
Answer- In principle, the EU's strategic and economic interests in
the South Caucasus remain the same, irrespective of the dispute with
Russia over the latter's destabilizing role in Ukraine. However, the
position of the EU towards Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia is liable
to change negatively as a result of Russia's actions on the ground
(see the association and integration agreements with Abkhazia, South
Ossetia) and in the Black Sea (i.e. de facto extension of territorial
waters by Russia) or as a consequence of a different political
outlook espoused by the leaderships of the countries concerned (see
Armenia's decision to pull the plug on the Association Agreement). On
the other hand, after the debacle in Ukraine and the failure of the
Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius, the EU is keen to reaffirm
its commitment to all Eastern Partnership countries and to prelaunch
a positive agenda at the summit in Riga in May.
KarineAsatryan, www.a1plus.am
- On what conditions will the EU sign a new cooperation agreement
with Armenia? Armenian officials claim that the Europeans already
demonstrate proper understanding of Armenia's decision to join the
EEU. Is there such a tendency and how is it displayed?
Answer- See my answer to first question by the 168 Zham newspaper. The
conditions for signing a new cooperation agreement will be essentially
the same as those for the failed Association Agreement: an adherence
expressed by Armenia to the values, freedoms and rights espoused by
the European Union, as indeed general principles of international law,
and a commitment to deepen political and security cooperation with
the EU and regional partners in the Eastern Partnership.
http://www.regioncenter.info/en/Internet-press-conference-with-Steven-Blockmans-eng-Interviews
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress