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Turkey hopes to deter Obama from using 'G-word'

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  • Turkey hopes to deter Obama from using 'G-word'

    Al-Monitor
    April 17 2015

    Turkey hopes to deter Obama from using 'G-word'

    Author: Cengiz ÇandarPosted April 17, 2015

    Pope Francis' sermon at St. Peter's Basilica, where he spoke of the
    1915 events that took the lives of hundreds of thousands of Ottoman
    Armenians, was expected to be the precursor for Western governments.
    The speculation (and the Turkish government's concern) is focused on
    the United States. April 24 is the centenary and Francis seemed to
    allow for many to follow. But every year on the anniversary of the
    alleged Armenian genocide, US President Barack Obama has refrained
    from uttering "the G-word." He has preferred the Armenian words "Metz
    Yeghern" (Great Calamity) that were used by Armenians before the UN
    Genocide Convention of 1948.



    The European Parliament may have to come to the rescue of Obama,
    seemingly squeezed between a moral obligation and the imperatives of
    foreign policy driven by national interest and the commitments of an
    international coalition leader in a volatile region of the Middle
    East. After all, Turkey is a NATO ally and despite its divergence on
    crucial issues with Washington, it is much too valuable an asset to
    alienate.

    A nervous Turkish leadership already extremely hostile to the Armenian
    genocide debate may not be on Obama's agenda for confrontation. He is
    too occupied with keeping the Sunni discontent with the Iranian
    nuclear deal in line, led by Saudi Arabia. He may see no benefit in
    opening another regional front with NATO ally Turkey and not repeating
    the "Metz Yeghern" this year, and following the pope's lead.

    It is exactly in this sense that the European Parliament's resolution
    invited, and therefore infuriated, Turkey to recognize the 1915
    Armenian calamity as genocide, and may have provided an out for Obama
    to avoid saying the "G-word."

    On the day the European Union's legislative body adopted the
    resolution that also called on member countries to recognize April 24,
    1915, as a "genocide," I was at an international conference at a EU
    member country. I was discussing the troubled relations of the new
    Greek government with the EU with a Greek friend who chairs an
    influential think tank. We shifted the conversation to the European
    Parliament's resolution. He was sure that Obama would not use the
    "G-word" in his April 24 statement. When I asked how he could be so
    confident, he burst out in laughter and responded, "Because the
    European Parliament used the 'G-word!'"

    Yet, the Turkish government does not want to take any chances in its
    quest to deter Obama. The reactions to the European Parliament's
    resolution is a natural, expected and understandable reflection of
    Turkish nationalism. It's directed mainly to deter the president of
    the United States following the line drawn by the pontiff.

    The uproar of Turkey's leaders to the European Parliament's resolution
    that followed Francis' statement is a two-pronged political ploy. One
    is directed internally for domestic policy to impress the voters in an
    election campaign. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Prime Minister
    Ahmet Davutoglu and the ruling Justice and Development Party are keen
    to mobilize the public through a nationalistic discourse that could be
    a boost for their dwindling election chances. The other is related to
    Turkish foreign policy vis-a-vis the West.

    The Europeans have a record of handling the issue of Ottoman Armenians
    in a way that angers the Turks. Therefore, the European Parliament
    resolution did not come as a surprise. Nevertheless, the Turkish
    leadership immediately employed harsh language in confronting the
    European Parliament resolution.

    Erdogan, on the eve of his state visit to Kazakhstan, declared the
    European Parliament resolution as "null and void."

    The Turkish Foreign Ministry promptly issued a statement with
    insulting language employed against the European Parliament. The
    wording was appalling for all those who are familiar with the finesse
    of diplomatic language.

    In the last paragraph of the statement, the Turkish Foreign Ministry
    did not mind sounding ridiculous in calling on Europe "to reconcile
    with its past, recognizing the fact that it caused great pain to
    humankind by instigating World War I and II."

    The impulsive reactions of Turkish officials reached a point of
    absurdity in the words of an Erdogan confidant, former Deputy Prime
    Minister Emrullah Isler, who accused Armenians of committing a
    "premeditated genocide" against Muslims and Turks. He alleged that
    "the number of the innocent souls that Armenians murdered is 521,000.
    If there was really a genocide, it is committed by Armenians." He
    claimed that Francis made his sermon under certain pressures and all
    such efforts lead to a dead end.

    Such language appears to have influenced the tone of the European
    Parliament resolution. During the debate before the resolution was
    adopted, a Portuguese Christian Democrat, Paulo Rangel, criticized
    Erdogan and said, "You cannot address ... Pope Francis as if you are
    addressing ... a Mafia godfather."

    The Economist thinks the language adopted by the Turkish leaders and
    above all by Erdogan is counterproductive for Turkey's relations with
    the West:

    "Mr. Erdogan has taken on an angrier, more nationalistic, Islamist and
    autocratic tone. This is making it harder for him not just to get on
    with his neighbors but also to preserve Turkey's pro-Western
    credentials as a bulwark of NATO and prospective member of the EU.
    That is why Turkish twitchiness over what happened in 1915 is so
    counterproductive.

    "By treating the dispute as a matter of vital national interest, the
    Turkish government is falling into a nationalistic trap. Instead it
    should admit past sins. Like other European powers, including Britain,
    Germany and Russia, it has plenty to acknowledge. Turkey has in the
    past mistreated, deported or killed not only Armenians but also
    Assyrians, Greeks and Kurds. But it also has reasons for pride, for
    the Ottoman Empire was, for example, often more tolerant of its ethnic
    minorities, including Jews, than the rest of Europe was."

    Taking into consideration the importance of Turkey's ties with the EU,
    particularly dealing with economy, it may seem hard to assess the
    vitriolic polemics directed at the EU institutions by the current
    Turkish leadership.

    According to a recent survey, it is Europe that offers salvation for
    the worsening economic malaise that Turkey is experiencing. Given that
    exports to Middle Eastern, Russian and Ukrainian markets are declining
    because of security reasons, the European market is of utmost
    importance for Turkey.

    Turks are not very anxious about whether or not the row over the
    Armenian genocide issue will jeopardize the prospects of Turkey's
    relations with the EU because they believe it is already far down on
    the list and the Europeans do not wish to further damage relations
    with Turkey.

    With such a realpolitik projection, Turkey's main emphasis by its
    venomous rhetoric against the EU is to deter the United States.

    Turks feel they can afford to escalate the polemics with the EU, which
    may prove temporary. But losing the United States over the "G-word"
    could create irreversible damage.

    Turkey's leaders do not care much whether the facts support Francis or
    what the European Parliament or the EU resolves to do.

    For Turks, Obama refraining from the use of the "G-word" is more vital
    than ever.


    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/04/turkey-armenia-fighting-the-eu-order-deter-obama.html

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