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Al Jazeera, Qatar
Jan 31 2015
Armenia-Turkey: War of words
As Armenian genocide centenary approaches, there are testy exchanges
between Ankara and Yerevan.
31 Jan 2015 06:40 GMT
Richard Giragosian,founding director of the Regional Studies Centre,
an independent think tank in Yerevan, Armenia.
Looking ahead, it is clear that this year promises to be a pivotal
year for Turkey. Regarding the Armenian issue, Turkey will face an
unprecedented challenge as the 100th anniversary of the Armenian
genocide will be marked by a symbolically significant series of
commemorations throughout the world. Given the emotional power of the
centenary, only amplified by commemorative events in both Armenia and
Turkey, the Turkish government will be hard pressed to maintain its
official policy regarding the Armenian genocide.
Given that backdrop, it seems clear that the Turkish government will
seek to "weather the storm" of 2015, and only after the commemoration
passes, consider returning to the process of diplomatic engagement
with Armenia.
Nevertheless, there are some smaller steps that each side can take to
ensure that the broader political environment is conducive to a return
to the "normalisation process". Perhaps in light of this realisation,
in recent weeks, there has been a sudden and dramatic exchange of
diplomatic messages between Ankara and Yerevan.
Broader political environment
First, in a message from the Turkish government, the Armenian
president was extended a rare invitation from his Turkish counterpart,
to attend a special ceremony marking the 100th anniversary of World
War I's Gallipoli campaign. Although the invitation was one of more
than 100 such invitations to world leaders, some have welcomed the
move as a new diplomatic opening for the stalled process of
"normalisation" between Turkey and Armenia.
And in a general sense, the invitation could have been a fresh
opportunity for diplomatic engagement, all the more welcome given the
absence of official diplomatic relations between the two countries.
But the timing of the Gallipoli invitation could not have been worse.
Armenians mark anniversary of mass killings
The bad timing stems from the Turkish decision to hold its own
Gallipoli commemoration on the same day as Armenians around the world
mark the anniversary of the start of the Armenian genocide in 1915.
And with Ankara's invitations to over 110 world leaders, it seems
poised for a duel with Yerevan, which is gathering its own roster of
international guests to come to Armenia on the same day for its
genocide remembrance ceremony.
For his part, the Armenian president had little choice but to reject
the invitation, and reminded his Turkish counterparts of his own
standing, but unanswered invitation to visit Armenia for the same
time, which he had extended much earlier.
It was against this background of dueling ceremonies that Armenia's
president issued an immediate rebuttal to his invitation from his
Turkish counterpart. A second, apparently follow-up message was then
delivered by Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, calling on "all
Armenians, and invite all those who believe in Turkish-Armenian
friendship to contribute to a new beginning".
The offer, coinciding with the eighth anniversary of the tragic murder
of respected journalist Hrant Dink, embraced a spirit of commemoration
and tragedy that was "guided by the seeds of friendship he sowed, we
wish to open new paths into hearts and minds".
Inhumane consequences
Many have rejected Davutoglu's approach of focusing on the "events of
1915" and "the inhumane consequences of the relocation policies
essentially enforced under wartime circumstances", and dismissed his
concept of "shared pain" as an unacceptable and dangerous equivalence
between the victims and the perpetrators of the genocide.
Yet both the April 2014 statement by then-Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan and this recent statement by Davutoglu, deserve a response.
First, the Erdogan statement on the Armenian genocide surprised many.
Although the statement clearly did not go far enough, it was both
unexpected and unprecedented. That statement not only offered a "safer
space" within which to discuss the genocide issue, it also broadened
the constituency for dialogue by sending a message not only to
Armenians but also to Erdogan's own base of supporters.
Each declaration not only offers and expands the space for dialogue
and engagement, but also helps to at least 'sustain the momentum' and
to foster a new environment more conductive for both sides to
re-engage.
It also established an important new precedent, whereby every Turkish
prime minister will be expected to make a similar statement timed with
each April 24 commemoration of the Armenian genocide.
Each declaration not only offers and expands the space for dialogue
and engagement, but also helps to at least "sustain the momentum" and
to foster a new environment more conductive for both sides to
re-engage.
Nevertheless, looking back, diplomatic engagement has been meagre and
marginal, with no follow-up and little follow-up to the December 2013
visit by then-Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in what was the first
high-level visit from Turkey to Armenia in five years.
And in a move by the Armenian side, the decision by Armenian Foreign
Minister Eduard Nalbandian to attend Erdogan's August 2014
inauguration ceremony was important. The presence of the Armenian
foreign minister was significant, despite the fact that Turkey has yet
to establish diplomatic relations or open the closed border with
Armenia.
There are still signs of hope, but only once the centenary of the
Armenian genocide passes. Equally significant will be Turkey's coming
June elections, which may offer a fresh opening for a more
self-confident Turkey to re-engage with Armenia.
At the same time, the future of both Turkey's broader regional policy
and its more specific policy towards Armenian-Turkish normalisation
are ever more hostage to the outcome of domestic Turkish politics.
Richard Giragosian is the founding director of the Regional Studies
Center, an independent think-tank in Yerevan, Armenia.
The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not
necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial policy.
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2015/01/armenia-turkey-war-genocide-centenary-150131061335250.html
Jan 31 2015
Armenia-Turkey: War of words
As Armenian genocide centenary approaches, there are testy exchanges
between Ankara and Yerevan.
31 Jan 2015 06:40 GMT
Richard Giragosian,founding director of the Regional Studies Centre,
an independent think tank in Yerevan, Armenia.
Looking ahead, it is clear that this year promises to be a pivotal
year for Turkey. Regarding the Armenian issue, Turkey will face an
unprecedented challenge as the 100th anniversary of the Armenian
genocide will be marked by a symbolically significant series of
commemorations throughout the world. Given the emotional power of the
centenary, only amplified by commemorative events in both Armenia and
Turkey, the Turkish government will be hard pressed to maintain its
official policy regarding the Armenian genocide.
Given that backdrop, it seems clear that the Turkish government will
seek to "weather the storm" of 2015, and only after the commemoration
passes, consider returning to the process of diplomatic engagement
with Armenia.
Nevertheless, there are some smaller steps that each side can take to
ensure that the broader political environment is conducive to a return
to the "normalisation process". Perhaps in light of this realisation,
in recent weeks, there has been a sudden and dramatic exchange of
diplomatic messages between Ankara and Yerevan.
Broader political environment
First, in a message from the Turkish government, the Armenian
president was extended a rare invitation from his Turkish counterpart,
to attend a special ceremony marking the 100th anniversary of World
War I's Gallipoli campaign. Although the invitation was one of more
than 100 such invitations to world leaders, some have welcomed the
move as a new diplomatic opening for the stalled process of
"normalisation" between Turkey and Armenia.
And in a general sense, the invitation could have been a fresh
opportunity for diplomatic engagement, all the more welcome given the
absence of official diplomatic relations between the two countries.
But the timing of the Gallipoli invitation could not have been worse.
Armenians mark anniversary of mass killings
The bad timing stems from the Turkish decision to hold its own
Gallipoli commemoration on the same day as Armenians around the world
mark the anniversary of the start of the Armenian genocide in 1915.
And with Ankara's invitations to over 110 world leaders, it seems
poised for a duel with Yerevan, which is gathering its own roster of
international guests to come to Armenia on the same day for its
genocide remembrance ceremony.
For his part, the Armenian president had little choice but to reject
the invitation, and reminded his Turkish counterparts of his own
standing, but unanswered invitation to visit Armenia for the same
time, which he had extended much earlier.
It was against this background of dueling ceremonies that Armenia's
president issued an immediate rebuttal to his invitation from his
Turkish counterpart. A second, apparently follow-up message was then
delivered by Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, calling on "all
Armenians, and invite all those who believe in Turkish-Armenian
friendship to contribute to a new beginning".
The offer, coinciding with the eighth anniversary of the tragic murder
of respected journalist Hrant Dink, embraced a spirit of commemoration
and tragedy that was "guided by the seeds of friendship he sowed, we
wish to open new paths into hearts and minds".
Inhumane consequences
Many have rejected Davutoglu's approach of focusing on the "events of
1915" and "the inhumane consequences of the relocation policies
essentially enforced under wartime circumstances", and dismissed his
concept of "shared pain" as an unacceptable and dangerous equivalence
between the victims and the perpetrators of the genocide.
Yet both the April 2014 statement by then-Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan and this recent statement by Davutoglu, deserve a response.
First, the Erdogan statement on the Armenian genocide surprised many.
Although the statement clearly did not go far enough, it was both
unexpected and unprecedented. That statement not only offered a "safer
space" within which to discuss the genocide issue, it also broadened
the constituency for dialogue by sending a message not only to
Armenians but also to Erdogan's own base of supporters.
Each declaration not only offers and expands the space for dialogue
and engagement, but also helps to at least 'sustain the momentum' and
to foster a new environment more conductive for both sides to
re-engage.
It also established an important new precedent, whereby every Turkish
prime minister will be expected to make a similar statement timed with
each April 24 commemoration of the Armenian genocide.
Each declaration not only offers and expands the space for dialogue
and engagement, but also helps to at least "sustain the momentum" and
to foster a new environment more conductive for both sides to
re-engage.
Nevertheless, looking back, diplomatic engagement has been meagre and
marginal, with no follow-up and little follow-up to the December 2013
visit by then-Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in what was the first
high-level visit from Turkey to Armenia in five years.
And in a move by the Armenian side, the decision by Armenian Foreign
Minister Eduard Nalbandian to attend Erdogan's August 2014
inauguration ceremony was important. The presence of the Armenian
foreign minister was significant, despite the fact that Turkey has yet
to establish diplomatic relations or open the closed border with
Armenia.
There are still signs of hope, but only once the centenary of the
Armenian genocide passes. Equally significant will be Turkey's coming
June elections, which may offer a fresh opening for a more
self-confident Turkey to re-engage with Armenia.
At the same time, the future of both Turkey's broader regional policy
and its more specific policy towards Armenian-Turkish normalisation
are ever more hostage to the outcome of domestic Turkish politics.
Richard Giragosian is the founding director of the Regional Studies
Center, an independent think-tank in Yerevan, Armenia.
The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not
necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial policy.
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2015/01/armenia-turkey-war-genocide-centenary-150131061335250.html