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ISSUE OF RUSSIAN MILITARY BASE MAY GIVE US A SURPRISE
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - 06 February 2015, 14:00
The existing relations between Russia and Armenia are formally
strategic to the extent it is possible between a small country located
in an unstable region and a huge nuclear country with incomprehensible
internal and external priorities, with a comprador and oligarchic
bourgeoisie.
Unfortunately, Armenia with its political class has not run out of
idealistic outlook on Russia. It is worthwhile to bring the example of
the U.S.-Israel relations when Israel is constantly fighting against
its strategic partner.
The notion of strategic partnership does not fit the rules of distinct
circles and rules, and in specific cases these relations have a
different content. Now a number of problems have not been overcome
and they have marred the Armenian-Russian relations and have grown
into anti-Russian moods.
Aside from a lot of positive circumstances the issue of coordination of
political consultations and decisions on foreign policy and security
remains up in the air. Is it possible to resolve such a problem
between countries in different weight groups? For the time being,
there are more arguments that this problem will not be resolved soon.
If the procedure of mutual consultations between Armenia and Russia
is applied, Russia will face complications in its relations with the
South Caucasus and the Western community. Russia could not afford to
adopt the concept of "prioritization", giving up on the concept of
"parity". In other words, Russia is not in the habit of selective
attitude to the countries of the region. The Russian elite and policy
makers were not ready for such policy when Russia would bid on one
state of the region and have to force its partnership on another
state of the region.
However, the policy of "parity" requires a lot of political resources
and only a stronger state can benefit from them. Moscow could not
implement the principle of "parity" even when the Soviet Union
existed. However, a quite unique consulting has formed in Moscow
which would not apprehend the idea of "priority" in foreign policy,
in the result of its own and group interests.
It is possible that Moscow is having problems with making foreign
political decisions.
However, the key factor that limits the practice of political
consultancies is Russia's aspiration to close cooperation with Turkey
and exchange Armenian national interests with agreements with Turkey.
In this way Russia tries to involve Azerbaijan in its area of influence
and supplies modern weapons, which questions the security of Armenia
and partnership with Russia.
As a result, Russia views Turkey and Azerbaijan as its partners,
and Armenia as a vassal. Russia has forced Armenia to give up on a
sovereign foreign policy and subsequently its statehood, integration
with the European Union, the leading structure of the West, involving
it in the marginal Eurasian Union, thereby dooming it to international
isolation and blockade.
Now Armenia is in a systemic financial and economic crisis which
is not possible to avoid if one walks with Russia. The country has
appeared in decline and incompetent economic situation.
The United States and its partners do not just conduct a policy of
"parity" in the South Caucasus, as well as in Eastern Europe and
Eurasia, but a rather balanced policy of universalism when an identical
homogeneous but not a one-dimensional "field" is formed which involves
this super region in new relations with new priorities and purposes.
This huge political and geo-economic expansion does not leave freedom
to Russia to build relations with its partners which would take into
account their needs in economy and security.
A fight for influence is underway between the Atlantic and Eurasian
blocs which have controversial tendencies of development, and
discussing the relations of Armenia and Russia outside this context
will be misleading. However, the Eurasian bloc has already collapsed,
and the Atlantic one continues, despite existing phenomena typical
of crisis.
At the same time, this geopolitical arrangement does not reduce the
importance of secondary and tertiary factors in the Armenian-Russian
relations.
There are ubiquitous assessments in Moscow which question these
relations and forecast the integration and membership of Armenia to
NATO. In fact, this is a specific question and Russia cannot pretend
that there is no such a problem.
However, the strange thing is that the political leadership of Armenia
announces regularly that membership to NATO is not on the agenda,
there are no political forces that would lobby and promote the idea,
there is no discussion on this topic but in Moscow such assessments
are intensifying.
The political forces are busy with situational matters and have no
idea about relations with NATO. In the absence of a left political
sector, nevertheless, leftist moods are ubiquitous in Armenia, which
does not intensify the public aspiration to membership to NATO.
The military circles may have interest in NATO but it turned out that
this interest is expressed in arms and army building. Apparently,
Armenian servicemen have concerns about isolation because NATO plans
include enlargement of the alliance. At the same time, most servicemen
consider CSTO as a real alternative to the maintenance of country's
security.
In March 2006 a brainstorming with 12 leading British military and
political experts took place in London on integration of Armenia to
NATO. Experts came to the following conclusion: not the technology
of membership of Armenia to NATO but leaving CSTO and revoking the
agreement with Russia is important.
The European Union did not offer even the minimum conditions of
security to Armenia and thereby doomed it to the September 3 decision.
Relations with the European Union have been frozen, and it will not
be possible to revive them in the nearest future.
Now the objective is obvious: the Armenian-Russian relations must be
limited, and the Russian military base must be withdrawn from Armenia.
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33592#sthash.LCSEAOTI.dpuf
From: Baghdasarian
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - 06 February 2015, 14:00
The existing relations between Russia and Armenia are formally
strategic to the extent it is possible between a small country located
in an unstable region and a huge nuclear country with incomprehensible
internal and external priorities, with a comprador and oligarchic
bourgeoisie.
Unfortunately, Armenia with its political class has not run out of
idealistic outlook on Russia. It is worthwhile to bring the example of
the U.S.-Israel relations when Israel is constantly fighting against
its strategic partner.
The notion of strategic partnership does not fit the rules of distinct
circles and rules, and in specific cases these relations have a
different content. Now a number of problems have not been overcome
and they have marred the Armenian-Russian relations and have grown
into anti-Russian moods.
Aside from a lot of positive circumstances the issue of coordination of
political consultations and decisions on foreign policy and security
remains up in the air. Is it possible to resolve such a problem
between countries in different weight groups? For the time being,
there are more arguments that this problem will not be resolved soon.
If the procedure of mutual consultations between Armenia and Russia
is applied, Russia will face complications in its relations with the
South Caucasus and the Western community. Russia could not afford to
adopt the concept of "prioritization", giving up on the concept of
"parity". In other words, Russia is not in the habit of selective
attitude to the countries of the region. The Russian elite and policy
makers were not ready for such policy when Russia would bid on one
state of the region and have to force its partnership on another
state of the region.
However, the policy of "parity" requires a lot of political resources
and only a stronger state can benefit from them. Moscow could not
implement the principle of "parity" even when the Soviet Union
existed. However, a quite unique consulting has formed in Moscow
which would not apprehend the idea of "priority" in foreign policy,
in the result of its own and group interests.
It is possible that Moscow is having problems with making foreign
political decisions.
However, the key factor that limits the practice of political
consultancies is Russia's aspiration to close cooperation with Turkey
and exchange Armenian national interests with agreements with Turkey.
In this way Russia tries to involve Azerbaijan in its area of influence
and supplies modern weapons, which questions the security of Armenia
and partnership with Russia.
As a result, Russia views Turkey and Azerbaijan as its partners,
and Armenia as a vassal. Russia has forced Armenia to give up on a
sovereign foreign policy and subsequently its statehood, integration
with the European Union, the leading structure of the West, involving
it in the marginal Eurasian Union, thereby dooming it to international
isolation and blockade.
Now Armenia is in a systemic financial and economic crisis which
is not possible to avoid if one walks with Russia. The country has
appeared in decline and incompetent economic situation.
The United States and its partners do not just conduct a policy of
"parity" in the South Caucasus, as well as in Eastern Europe and
Eurasia, but a rather balanced policy of universalism when an identical
homogeneous but not a one-dimensional "field" is formed which involves
this super region in new relations with new priorities and purposes.
This huge political and geo-economic expansion does not leave freedom
to Russia to build relations with its partners which would take into
account their needs in economy and security.
A fight for influence is underway between the Atlantic and Eurasian
blocs which have controversial tendencies of development, and
discussing the relations of Armenia and Russia outside this context
will be misleading. However, the Eurasian bloc has already collapsed,
and the Atlantic one continues, despite existing phenomena typical
of crisis.
At the same time, this geopolitical arrangement does not reduce the
importance of secondary and tertiary factors in the Armenian-Russian
relations.
There are ubiquitous assessments in Moscow which question these
relations and forecast the integration and membership of Armenia to
NATO. In fact, this is a specific question and Russia cannot pretend
that there is no such a problem.
However, the strange thing is that the political leadership of Armenia
announces regularly that membership to NATO is not on the agenda,
there are no political forces that would lobby and promote the idea,
there is no discussion on this topic but in Moscow such assessments
are intensifying.
The political forces are busy with situational matters and have no
idea about relations with NATO. In the absence of a left political
sector, nevertheless, leftist moods are ubiquitous in Armenia, which
does not intensify the public aspiration to membership to NATO.
The military circles may have interest in NATO but it turned out that
this interest is expressed in arms and army building. Apparently,
Armenian servicemen have concerns about isolation because NATO plans
include enlargement of the alliance. At the same time, most servicemen
consider CSTO as a real alternative to the maintenance of country's
security.
In March 2006 a brainstorming with 12 leading British military and
political experts took place in London on integration of Armenia to
NATO. Experts came to the following conclusion: not the technology
of membership of Armenia to NATO but leaving CSTO and revoking the
agreement with Russia is important.
The European Union did not offer even the minimum conditions of
security to Armenia and thereby doomed it to the September 3 decision.
Relations with the European Union have been frozen, and it will not
be possible to revive them in the nearest future.
Now the objective is obvious: the Armenian-Russian relations must be
limited, and the Russian military base must be withdrawn from Armenia.
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33592#sthash.LCSEAOTI.dpuf
From: Baghdasarian