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Likelihood of Resumption of War in South Caucasus
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - 07 February 2015, 23:42
Although Armenia is obviously becoming Russia's vassal, the United
States and Europe are wondering how Armenia-Russia relations will
develop, how Armenia will maintain relations with Russia and the
Western community simultaneously, whether there are different opinions
in Moscow on relations with Armenia.
They also wonder for what reason Armenia would like to have sources of
supply of weapons in the West, what kinds of weapons it is interested
in, how confident the Armenian political leadership is on its policy
on the West, whether the military command supports this policy.
Besides these circumstances the assessment of risks and threats of war
in the South Caucasus is interesting. As far as NATO experts know,
headquarters of NATO member states, as well as NATO did not organize
role plays, the available analyses are not deep enough, the
information received from embassies of NATO member states in the South
Caucasus is often controversial, sometimes lack of knowledge of the
subject is in place.
On the whole, it is believed that over the past years the situation in
the area of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has shifted from stable
tense to high risk. A lot of weapons are bought, militaristic
propaganda is intensifying, constant aggressive statements are made.
At present, there is no hope for significant progress of the talks.
Major states, including Turkey, Russia and Iran, are not interested in
the resumption of war. NATO and the European Union also consider the
military actions unacceptable.
The United States, Russia and France agree their actions relating to
Nagorno-Karabakh. As the possible initiator of military actions,
Azerbaijan is not ready to implement them. The one who will start the
war and the countries which will support it will appear in
international isolation, primarily by NATO, the European Union and the
United States.
Turkey postures as if for constraint of Azerbaijan, and it is
reiterated in its consultations with its partners in NATO. Turkey is
not interested in a war that would lead to a disaster. In this regard,
conclusions are made that the likelihood and risks of resumption of
war are not high, as some experts and observers may claim.
Is it possible to explain the silent observation of the weapons race
in the South Caucasus by the Western community by the interest of the
West as a factor of pressure on Armenia that leads to its
rapprochement with NATO and the European Union?
The rapprochement of Armenia with NATO and the European Union does not
stem from competition with Azerbaijan in the sphere of defense.
Breaking of the balance of forces in the South Caucasus may lead to
attempts to resolve problems through use of force, which is a threat
to the Western policy in the region.
The purpose of the Western community is not maintenance of the balance
of forces in the region. The purpose is regulation of problems but the
balance of forces is a premise for stability and security. Therefore,
it is time to discuss the possibility for cooperation with Armenia
over supply of weapons.
It is understood that the process of vassalization of Armenia was
enabled and determined by massive supply of modern weapons to
Azerbaijan by Russia.
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33601#sthash.GUHeYTHJ.dpuf
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - 07 February 2015, 23:42
Although Armenia is obviously becoming Russia's vassal, the United
States and Europe are wondering how Armenia-Russia relations will
develop, how Armenia will maintain relations with Russia and the
Western community simultaneously, whether there are different opinions
in Moscow on relations with Armenia.
They also wonder for what reason Armenia would like to have sources of
supply of weapons in the West, what kinds of weapons it is interested
in, how confident the Armenian political leadership is on its policy
on the West, whether the military command supports this policy.
Besides these circumstances the assessment of risks and threats of war
in the South Caucasus is interesting. As far as NATO experts know,
headquarters of NATO member states, as well as NATO did not organize
role plays, the available analyses are not deep enough, the
information received from embassies of NATO member states in the South
Caucasus is often controversial, sometimes lack of knowledge of the
subject is in place.
On the whole, it is believed that over the past years the situation in
the area of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has shifted from stable
tense to high risk. A lot of weapons are bought, militaristic
propaganda is intensifying, constant aggressive statements are made.
At present, there is no hope for significant progress of the talks.
Major states, including Turkey, Russia and Iran, are not interested in
the resumption of war. NATO and the European Union also consider the
military actions unacceptable.
The United States, Russia and France agree their actions relating to
Nagorno-Karabakh. As the possible initiator of military actions,
Azerbaijan is not ready to implement them. The one who will start the
war and the countries which will support it will appear in
international isolation, primarily by NATO, the European Union and the
United States.
Turkey postures as if for constraint of Azerbaijan, and it is
reiterated in its consultations with its partners in NATO. Turkey is
not interested in a war that would lead to a disaster. In this regard,
conclusions are made that the likelihood and risks of resumption of
war are not high, as some experts and observers may claim.
Is it possible to explain the silent observation of the weapons race
in the South Caucasus by the Western community by the interest of the
West as a factor of pressure on Armenia that leads to its
rapprochement with NATO and the European Union?
The rapprochement of Armenia with NATO and the European Union does not
stem from competition with Azerbaijan in the sphere of defense.
Breaking of the balance of forces in the South Caucasus may lead to
attempts to resolve problems through use of force, which is a threat
to the Western policy in the region.
The purpose of the Western community is not maintenance of the balance
of forces in the region. The purpose is regulation of problems but the
balance of forces is a premise for stability and security. Therefore,
it is time to discuss the possibility for cooperation with Armenia
over supply of weapons.
It is understood that the process of vassalization of Armenia was
enabled and determined by massive supply of modern weapons to
Azerbaijan by Russia.
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33601#sthash.GUHeYTHJ.dpuf