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Ukraine Developments Have Shifted International Attention From South

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  • Ukraine Developments Have Shifted International Attention From South

    UKRAINE DEVELOPMENTS HAVE SHIFTED INTERNATIONAL ATTENTION FROM SOUTH CAUCASUS - ARMENIAN ANALYST

    15:31 * 09.02.15
    http://www.tert.am/en/news/2015/02/09/hrant-meliq-shahnazaryan/1584285

    Regrettably, the Ukraine developments have shifted international
    attention from the South Caucasus and the regional conflicts, as well
    as reduced pressure on the sides, political scientist Hrant Melik
    Shahnazaryan told Tert.am.

    "It is because of the Ukraine developments that one of the factors
    of ensuring peace in our region, namely, international pressure,
    is not actually in effect now. The Russia-West confrontation lets
    Aliyev feel free," he said.

    International news agencies report that Azerbaijan plans to reduce
    construction this year, which may be the result of the decline in
    the world oil prices, along with fewer real estate businesses in
    Azerbaijan.

    In an earlier interview with Tert.am, political analyst Aghasi
    Yenokyan said hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan are likely
    to resume this year. According to him, evidence thereof is that
    "British Petroleum is now extracting as much oil as possible in
    Azerbaijan within the shortest period possible."

    Asked whether those energy and oil projects are treated as key factors
    in terms of preventing a war in the region, Melik-Shahnazaryan said
    he is more inclined to consider it a restraining tool.

    "There are more fundamental factors which guarantee the current level
    of peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. So I don't think it is quite
    right to link the war renewal with difficulties on the oil [market],"
    he answered.

    Commenting on the economic problems in Azerbaijan, the analyst said
    he sees that despite its efforts to claim that they are diversifying
    the economy, that country is now largely dependent on oil and its
    international prices.

    "That series includes all that has taken place: opposition arrests,
    persecution etc. And also, the 'external threat' factor which they
    are trying to use against the people. I mean the possible war with
    Armenia and Artsakh," he noted

    Meantime Melik Shahnazaryan ruled out the possibility of Azerbaijan's
    pro-activeness in launching a war, noting that the country bewares
    very much of its unpredictable consequences.

    At the international Security Conference in Munich last week,
    Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev expressed his concerns over the
    increasing border clashes along the Armenian Azerbaijani border.

    Commenting on the his as well as the Minsk Group's recent statement
    calling for abstinence from violence, the expert said he sees that
    the international mediators' position hints signs of calmness in
    the region.

    "To the best of my understanding, the idea in the international
    community's perception is that the situation has more or less
    calmed down over the past fortnight. So they believe it has become
    controllable to an extent," he said, pointing out to the international
    mediators' efforts towards returning to balanced methods of conflict
    settlement.




    From: A. Papazian
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