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UKRAINE DEVELOPMENTS HAVE SHIFTED INTERNATIONAL ATTENTION FROM SOUTH CAUCASUS - ARMENIAN ANALYST
15:31 * 09.02.15
http://www.tert.am/en/news/2015/02/09/hrant-meliq-shahnazaryan/1584285
Regrettably, the Ukraine developments have shifted international
attention from the South Caucasus and the regional conflicts, as well
as reduced pressure on the sides, political scientist Hrant Melik
Shahnazaryan told Tert.am.
"It is because of the Ukraine developments that one of the factors
of ensuring peace in our region, namely, international pressure,
is not actually in effect now. The Russia-West confrontation lets
Aliyev feel free," he said.
International news agencies report that Azerbaijan plans to reduce
construction this year, which may be the result of the decline in
the world oil prices, along with fewer real estate businesses in
Azerbaijan.
In an earlier interview with Tert.am, political analyst Aghasi
Yenokyan said hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan are likely
to resume this year. According to him, evidence thereof is that
"British Petroleum is now extracting as much oil as possible in
Azerbaijan within the shortest period possible."
Asked whether those energy and oil projects are treated as key factors
in terms of preventing a war in the region, Melik-Shahnazaryan said
he is more inclined to consider it a restraining tool.
"There are more fundamental factors which guarantee the current level
of peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. So I don't think it is quite
right to link the war renewal with difficulties on the oil [market],"
he answered.
Commenting on the economic problems in Azerbaijan, the analyst said
he sees that despite its efforts to claim that they are diversifying
the economy, that country is now largely dependent on oil and its
international prices.
"That series includes all that has taken place: opposition arrests,
persecution etc. And also, the 'external threat' factor which they
are trying to use against the people. I mean the possible war with
Armenia and Artsakh," he noted
Meantime Melik Shahnazaryan ruled out the possibility of Azerbaijan's
pro-activeness in launching a war, noting that the country bewares
very much of its unpredictable consequences.
At the international Security Conference in Munich last week,
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev expressed his concerns over the
increasing border clashes along the Armenian Azerbaijani border.
Commenting on the his as well as the Minsk Group's recent statement
calling for abstinence from violence, the expert said he sees that
the international mediators' position hints signs of calmness in
the region.
"To the best of my understanding, the idea in the international
community's perception is that the situation has more or less
calmed down over the past fortnight. So they believe it has become
controllable to an extent," he said, pointing out to the international
mediators' efforts towards returning to balanced methods of conflict
settlement.
From: A. Papazian
15:31 * 09.02.15
http://www.tert.am/en/news/2015/02/09/hrant-meliq-shahnazaryan/1584285
Regrettably, the Ukraine developments have shifted international
attention from the South Caucasus and the regional conflicts, as well
as reduced pressure on the sides, political scientist Hrant Melik
Shahnazaryan told Tert.am.
"It is because of the Ukraine developments that one of the factors
of ensuring peace in our region, namely, international pressure,
is not actually in effect now. The Russia-West confrontation lets
Aliyev feel free," he said.
International news agencies report that Azerbaijan plans to reduce
construction this year, which may be the result of the decline in
the world oil prices, along with fewer real estate businesses in
Azerbaijan.
In an earlier interview with Tert.am, political analyst Aghasi
Yenokyan said hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan are likely
to resume this year. According to him, evidence thereof is that
"British Petroleum is now extracting as much oil as possible in
Azerbaijan within the shortest period possible."
Asked whether those energy and oil projects are treated as key factors
in terms of preventing a war in the region, Melik-Shahnazaryan said
he is more inclined to consider it a restraining tool.
"There are more fundamental factors which guarantee the current level
of peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. So I don't think it is quite
right to link the war renewal with difficulties on the oil [market],"
he answered.
Commenting on the economic problems in Azerbaijan, the analyst said
he sees that despite its efforts to claim that they are diversifying
the economy, that country is now largely dependent on oil and its
international prices.
"That series includes all that has taken place: opposition arrests,
persecution etc. And also, the 'external threat' factor which they
are trying to use against the people. I mean the possible war with
Armenia and Artsakh," he noted
Meantime Melik Shahnazaryan ruled out the possibility of Azerbaijan's
pro-activeness in launching a war, noting that the country bewares
very much of its unpredictable consequences.
At the international Security Conference in Munich last week,
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev expressed his concerns over the
increasing border clashes along the Armenian Azerbaijani border.
Commenting on the his as well as the Minsk Group's recent statement
calling for abstinence from violence, the expert said he sees that
the international mediators' position hints signs of calmness in
the region.
"To the best of my understanding, the idea in the international
community's perception is that the situation has more or less
calmed down over the past fortnight. So they believe it has become
controllable to an extent," he said, pointing out to the international
mediators' efforts towards returning to balanced methods of conflict
settlement.
From: A. Papazian