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BAKU: Military And Peaceful Variations By The President Aliyev On Th

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  • BAKU: Military And Peaceful Variations By The President Aliyev On Th

    MILITARY AND PEACEFUL VARIATIONS BY THE PRESIDENT ALIYEV ON THE KARABAKH SETTLEMENT

    Turan Information Agency, Azerbaijan
    February 9, 2015 Monday

    Saturday, 7 February has become an extraordinary working weekend on the
    agenda of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. First the three co-chairs
    of the OSCE Minsk Group on the settlement of the Karabakh conflict,
    and then the OSCE leadership in the face of the OSCE Chairman Ivica
    Dacic and the OSCE Secretary General, Lamberto Zannier, made statements
    calling Azerbaijan and Armenia to abandon the escalation of violence.

    "We all agree that the military situation along the frontline and on
    the Armenian-Azerbaijani border is deteriorating, posing a threat to
    regional stability and endangers the lives of civilians. The Monitoring
    Report of the Personal Representative of the Chairman Andrei Kasprzyk
    for the first month of 2015 indicated 12 victims and 18 wounded. This
    is the highest confirmation of the death tolls since the 1994 on the
    ceasefire agreement. After 2014, when approximately 60 people died,
    we are concerned that the alarming trend of violence continues,
    " reads the joint statement.

    Just on the same day, sometime later, President of Azerbaijan Ilham
    Aliyev announced that the condition to promote the peace process is
    de-occupation of Azerbaijani territories captured by Armenia. Speaking
    on 7 February at the panel session "Besides Ukraine - unresolved
    conflicts in Europe" in the frames of the 51th Munich Security
    Conference Aliyev made it clear that the Armenian soldiers must leave
    Adam, Fizuli, and generally seven districts of Azerbaijan.

    However, the threat of the President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan against
    Azerbaijan last month leaves no illusions about some calmness on
    the line of contact. "Azerbaijan will pay dearly for the life of the
    Armenian soldiers who died as a result of sabotage, Sargsyan said at
    the board of the Ministry of Defense of Armenia on 26 January.

    Over the last statistical year, mentioned by the OSCE, a lot of
    mediation efforts have been made to bring peace to the parties at the
    level of the presidents of France, Russia, the US secretary of state,
    as well as calls for prudence EU, CoE, OSCE. The mediation of Russian
    President in August 2014 which usually calmed the presidents of the
    warring presidents, even for a small period of time, did not lead
    cause the cessation of military escalation.

    It is noteworthy that Aliyev, unlike to verbal statements about the
    first years of the use of force as a political tool to address the
    issue during the third term, is increasingly confirming his words by
    concrete military actions - from large-scale military exercises to
    individual local military skirmishes. These practical steps become
    consistent under the increasingly economic isolation of Armenia
    due to the deep economic crisis of suzerain in the face of Russia,
    Ukrainian crisis, the growing opposition between the West and Russia,
    and as a result, the isolation of the latter.

    However, it should be noted that all these foreign conflicts to the
    north of Azerbaijan, are temporary by nature, and cannot serve as a
    platform for long-term military pressure on Armenia. From Aliyev's
    speech in Munich it becomes clear that he understands it. His second
    promise: peace and cooperation in exchange for de-occupation becomes
    relevant under a long-term Armenian crisis, mitigation of which
    largely depends on constructive regional relations.

    Azerbaijan has also entered a period of prolonged economic downturn
    caused by the problems of institutional and unnecessarily protracted
    labor diversification. Yet, even reduced oil and gas revenues, allow
    holding the position, which may dictate the military and civilian
    variations of the Karabakh settlement.

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