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THOMAS DE WAAL: IF A CONFLICT DOES EVER BREAK OUT AGAIN, IT WILL BE A FULL-SCALE WAR BETWEEN THE STATES OF ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN
by Nana Martirosyan
Friday, February 13, 15:10
If a conflict does ever break out again, it will be a full-scale
war between the states of Armenia and Azerbaijan, an analyst of the
Carnegie Fund, Thomas de Waal, says in an article.
He also added that Armenians and Azerbaijanis have exchanged fire
across the so-called Line of Contact and made threatening noises. But
neither side has shown any willingness to push things back over
the brink.
"The basic arguments for avoiding war remain the same. It would do
catastrophic damage to everyone. The Armenian side got most of what
it wanted in 1994. Azerbaijan, the defeated side in the war of the
1990s, has a greater incentive to back to war to try to re-conquer
lands that constitute almost 14 per cent of its de jure territory,
but it would be a very risky enterprise. Given the mountainous
terrain and the Armenian defenses, an operation could easily fail,
costing potentially not just the lives of thousands of young men in
the minefields around Karabakh, but the survival of the ruling elite
itself. Far safer for Baku to rattle sabers than to fire real guns.
The Azerbaijani side is militarily far stronger than it was 10 years
ago and the ceasefire line is almost the only place where it has
leverage over the Armenians. Over the years, Azerbaijani officials
have rejected proposals to strengthen the ceasefire by, for example,
withdrawing snipers from the front line or instituting an incident
investigation mechanism--saying that would normalize the status quo
that is unacceptable.
For their part, the Armenians periodically like to demonstrate to
Baku, the world and their own public that they still have a powerful
military and can mount operations of their own.
This year, the signals are much more worrying. At the Munich Security
Conference, the OSCE issued its third alarmed statement in two weeks.
January is usually a quiet month on the ceasefire line but this time
12 dead and 18 wounded were recorded", - Thomas de Waal concluded.
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=521FFBC0-B379-11E4-93990EB7C0D21663
by Nana Martirosyan
Friday, February 13, 15:10
If a conflict does ever break out again, it will be a full-scale
war between the states of Armenia and Azerbaijan, an analyst of the
Carnegie Fund, Thomas de Waal, says in an article.
He also added that Armenians and Azerbaijanis have exchanged fire
across the so-called Line of Contact and made threatening noises. But
neither side has shown any willingness to push things back over
the brink.
"The basic arguments for avoiding war remain the same. It would do
catastrophic damage to everyone. The Armenian side got most of what
it wanted in 1994. Azerbaijan, the defeated side in the war of the
1990s, has a greater incentive to back to war to try to re-conquer
lands that constitute almost 14 per cent of its de jure territory,
but it would be a very risky enterprise. Given the mountainous
terrain and the Armenian defenses, an operation could easily fail,
costing potentially not just the lives of thousands of young men in
the minefields around Karabakh, but the survival of the ruling elite
itself. Far safer for Baku to rattle sabers than to fire real guns.
The Azerbaijani side is militarily far stronger than it was 10 years
ago and the ceasefire line is almost the only place where it has
leverage over the Armenians. Over the years, Azerbaijani officials
have rejected proposals to strengthen the ceasefire by, for example,
withdrawing snipers from the front line or instituting an incident
investigation mechanism--saying that would normalize the status quo
that is unacceptable.
For their part, the Armenians periodically like to demonstrate to
Baku, the world and their own public that they still have a powerful
military and can mount operations of their own.
This year, the signals are much more worrying. At the Munich Security
Conference, the OSCE issued its third alarmed statement in two weeks.
January is usually a quiet month on the ceasefire line but this time
12 dead and 18 wounded were recorded", - Thomas de Waal concluded.
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=521FFBC0-B379-11E4-93990EB7C0D21663