Tweet
Open Democracy
Feb 15 2015
Karabakh truce shaken by gunshots and tough talk
Armen Karapetyan 15 February 2015
OSCE mediators urge an end to attacks after a month in which the
20-year-old ceasefire was broken in thousands of incidents.
IWPR: As an upsurge in fighting between Azerbaijani and Armenian
troops is accompanied by increasingly tough rhetoric, the ceasefire
that has held for two decades is under more strain than ever. The
competing accounts of what is going on along the border and the `line
of contact' around Nagorno-Karabakh are hard to reconcile, but adding
up all the reports of ceasefire violations gives around 5,000 for
January'the biggest monthly figure since active hostilities ended in a
truce in 1994.
`From a military perspective, this escalation per se is not new,' said
Richard Giragosian, director of the Regional Studies Centre in the
Armenian capital, Yerevan. `What is new, however, is an expanded
battle space'the geography of attacks is much broader and includes
parts of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border'and an expansion in intensity
of the attacks.'
Giragosian was speaking at a discussion meeting held by the Institute
for War and Peace Reporting and the Media Centre in Yerevan late last
month to examine the implications of the upsurge in fighting over the
former predominantly-Armenian enclave of Azerbaijan. Worryingly,
officials on both sides are using the word `war' to describe what is
happening. In remarks quoted by the Armenian service of RFE/RL on 6
February, an Armenian Defence Ministry representative referred to `a
slow war on the border', while his Azerbaijani equivalent responded by
saying that `in actual fact, the war has not halted in the last 20
years'. War would end when Armenian forces withdrew from Azerbaijani
territory, he said.
Expressions of concern
The Minsk Group'the mediating body of the Organisation for Security
and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) on the Karabakh conflict, chaired by
the United States, Russia and France'has issued several expressions of
concern. In a statement on 7 February, the group's co-chairs and the
current OSCE chair, Ivica DaÄ?iÄ?, said: `We all agree that the military
situation along the line of contact and Armenia-Azerbaijan border is
deteriorating, posing a threat to regional stability and endangering
the lives of civilians ... After 2014, in which approximately 60
people lost their lives, we are alarmed that this disturbing violent
trend has continued.' The statement called on all sides to `end
incursions, cease targeting villages and civilians, stop the threat of
reprisals and the use of asymmetric force, and take additional steps
to reduce tensions and strengthen the ceasefire'.
Defence officials in Yerevan and the Karabkh capital, Stepanakert,
recorded ten deaths of Armenian military personnel in January.
Azerbaijan said it had lost four men, although the number is likely to
be higher. Again, these fatalities are out of the ordinary'in recent
times comparable only with a burst of violence in July and August last
year, when more than 20 Azerbaijani and Armenian soldiers were killed.
Worryingly, officials on both sides are using the word `war' to
describe what is happening.
The summer skirmishing receded when the presidents of Armenia and
Azerbaijan were brought together by the Russian leader, Vladimir
Putin, in August. Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev met again in
September and October, in what seemed to be first steps towards
resuming the long-dormant peace process. One confidence-building
measure they undertook was to withdraw heavy weapons from the front
lines. But that optimism faded, with the downing of an Armenian
helicopter in November and January's death toll.
At the start of the month, Armenia's Defence Ministry issued new
orders to officers along the frontier, authorising them to use their
own initiative in retaliating against attacks and to take pre-emptive
action when they saw fit. Sargsyan confirmed this apparent switch in
tactics when he addressed ministry staff on 26 January, telling them
that `if there are more substantial build-ups along our borders and on
the front line [the Karabakh line of contact], we reserve the right to
deliver pre-emptive strikes'.
Azerbaijan's Defence Ministry came out with its own statement on 12
January, insisting it would exercise its right to fly manned and
unmanned aircraft over the line of contact, and to deploy `all
available military equipment' without reference to the other side. On
29 January, it announced that its forces had shot down an Armenian
drone plane near Karabakh. Armenian officials said this was `absurd'
and suggested instead that the Azerbaijanis might have downed one of
their own aircraft.
Arms race
Speaking a day after Sargsyan's announcement, Aliyev dismissed Armenia
as a mere `colony' which `cannot exist as an independent state'. He
was referring to the large economic imbalance between his oil-rich
state and Armenia, which affects the arms race between them.
The Global Militarisation Index 2014, produced by the Bonn
International Centre for Conversion, ranks Armenia and Azerbaijan
among the world's ten most heavily militarised states, measured by
defence spending against gross domestic product and the number of
armed-forces personnel per capita. The Stockholm International Peace
Research Institute reports that defence spending has risen
exponentially in both countries.
Between 1995 and 2013, Armenia's annual expenditure rose from $52m to
$427m. But that pales in comparison with Azerbaijan, which spent $3.4
billion in 2013, as against just $66m back in 1995. Much to Armenia's
annoyance, its security and economic ally Russia has been happy to
take Azerbaijan's cash for high-tech weapons, including modern tanks
and missiles.
These figures do not include defence expenditure in Nagorno-Karabakh,
governed by a separate Armenian administration since the war stopped
in 1994, although no one has recognised its claim to independence from
Azerbaijan.
Giragosian sees this disparity in spending power as a risk factor,
since it could result in `a shift in the balance of military power in
Azerbaijan's favour over the longer term'. Right now though, he said,
it was not enough to change a situation where `Armenia's defensive
position is still stronger than Azerbaijan's potential offensive
capacity'.
In the shorter term, Girogasian said, the real risk was that war could
break out `by accident, based on miscalculation'.
This article was originally published by the Institute for War and
Peace Reporting. It is reproduced with appreciation.
https://www.opendemocracy.net/opensecurity/armen-karapetyan/karabakh-truce-shaken-by-gunshots-and-tough-talk
Feb 15 2015
Karabakh truce shaken by gunshots and tough talk
Armen Karapetyan 15 February 2015
OSCE mediators urge an end to attacks after a month in which the
20-year-old ceasefire was broken in thousands of incidents.
IWPR: As an upsurge in fighting between Azerbaijani and Armenian
troops is accompanied by increasingly tough rhetoric, the ceasefire
that has held for two decades is under more strain than ever. The
competing accounts of what is going on along the border and the `line
of contact' around Nagorno-Karabakh are hard to reconcile, but adding
up all the reports of ceasefire violations gives around 5,000 for
January'the biggest monthly figure since active hostilities ended in a
truce in 1994.
`From a military perspective, this escalation per se is not new,' said
Richard Giragosian, director of the Regional Studies Centre in the
Armenian capital, Yerevan. `What is new, however, is an expanded
battle space'the geography of attacks is much broader and includes
parts of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border'and an expansion in intensity
of the attacks.'
Giragosian was speaking at a discussion meeting held by the Institute
for War and Peace Reporting and the Media Centre in Yerevan late last
month to examine the implications of the upsurge in fighting over the
former predominantly-Armenian enclave of Azerbaijan. Worryingly,
officials on both sides are using the word `war' to describe what is
happening. In remarks quoted by the Armenian service of RFE/RL on 6
February, an Armenian Defence Ministry representative referred to `a
slow war on the border', while his Azerbaijani equivalent responded by
saying that `in actual fact, the war has not halted in the last 20
years'. War would end when Armenian forces withdrew from Azerbaijani
territory, he said.
Expressions of concern
The Minsk Group'the mediating body of the Organisation for Security
and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) on the Karabakh conflict, chaired by
the United States, Russia and France'has issued several expressions of
concern. In a statement on 7 February, the group's co-chairs and the
current OSCE chair, Ivica DaÄ?iÄ?, said: `We all agree that the military
situation along the line of contact and Armenia-Azerbaijan border is
deteriorating, posing a threat to regional stability and endangering
the lives of civilians ... After 2014, in which approximately 60
people lost their lives, we are alarmed that this disturbing violent
trend has continued.' The statement called on all sides to `end
incursions, cease targeting villages and civilians, stop the threat of
reprisals and the use of asymmetric force, and take additional steps
to reduce tensions and strengthen the ceasefire'.
Defence officials in Yerevan and the Karabkh capital, Stepanakert,
recorded ten deaths of Armenian military personnel in January.
Azerbaijan said it had lost four men, although the number is likely to
be higher. Again, these fatalities are out of the ordinary'in recent
times comparable only with a burst of violence in July and August last
year, when more than 20 Azerbaijani and Armenian soldiers were killed.
Worryingly, officials on both sides are using the word `war' to
describe what is happening.
The summer skirmishing receded when the presidents of Armenia and
Azerbaijan were brought together by the Russian leader, Vladimir
Putin, in August. Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev met again in
September and October, in what seemed to be first steps towards
resuming the long-dormant peace process. One confidence-building
measure they undertook was to withdraw heavy weapons from the front
lines. But that optimism faded, with the downing of an Armenian
helicopter in November and January's death toll.
At the start of the month, Armenia's Defence Ministry issued new
orders to officers along the frontier, authorising them to use their
own initiative in retaliating against attacks and to take pre-emptive
action when they saw fit. Sargsyan confirmed this apparent switch in
tactics when he addressed ministry staff on 26 January, telling them
that `if there are more substantial build-ups along our borders and on
the front line [the Karabakh line of contact], we reserve the right to
deliver pre-emptive strikes'.
Azerbaijan's Defence Ministry came out with its own statement on 12
January, insisting it would exercise its right to fly manned and
unmanned aircraft over the line of contact, and to deploy `all
available military equipment' without reference to the other side. On
29 January, it announced that its forces had shot down an Armenian
drone plane near Karabakh. Armenian officials said this was `absurd'
and suggested instead that the Azerbaijanis might have downed one of
their own aircraft.
Arms race
Speaking a day after Sargsyan's announcement, Aliyev dismissed Armenia
as a mere `colony' which `cannot exist as an independent state'. He
was referring to the large economic imbalance between his oil-rich
state and Armenia, which affects the arms race between them.
The Global Militarisation Index 2014, produced by the Bonn
International Centre for Conversion, ranks Armenia and Azerbaijan
among the world's ten most heavily militarised states, measured by
defence spending against gross domestic product and the number of
armed-forces personnel per capita. The Stockholm International Peace
Research Institute reports that defence spending has risen
exponentially in both countries.
Between 1995 and 2013, Armenia's annual expenditure rose from $52m to
$427m. But that pales in comparison with Azerbaijan, which spent $3.4
billion in 2013, as against just $66m back in 1995. Much to Armenia's
annoyance, its security and economic ally Russia has been happy to
take Azerbaijan's cash for high-tech weapons, including modern tanks
and missiles.
These figures do not include defence expenditure in Nagorno-Karabakh,
governed by a separate Armenian administration since the war stopped
in 1994, although no one has recognised its claim to independence from
Azerbaijan.
Giragosian sees this disparity in spending power as a risk factor,
since it could result in `a shift in the balance of military power in
Azerbaijan's favour over the longer term'. Right now though, he said,
it was not enough to change a situation where `Armenia's defensive
position is still stronger than Azerbaijan's potential offensive
capacity'.
In the shorter term, Girogasian said, the real risk was that war could
break out `by accident, based on miscalculation'.
This article was originally published by the Institute for War and
Peace Reporting. It is reproduced with appreciation.
https://www.opendemocracy.net/opensecurity/armen-karapetyan/karabakh-truce-shaken-by-gunshots-and-tough-talk