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ORCHESTRATED?: OUTSIDE INFLUENCE SEEN IN ARMENIAN POLITICS AMID RPA-PAP STANDOFF
ANALYSIS | 16.02.15 | 10:37
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
Armenia's opposition trio is going to hold an "urgent all-national
rally" on February 20 to discuss further steps of its struggle with the
people. The need for such steps emerged after President Serzh Sargsyan
called Gagik Tsarukyan, the leader of the Prosperous Armenia Party,
a key member of the trio, a 'pseudo-political phenomenon".
Before that Tsarukyan practically put forward an ultimatum to
the authorities. And then to the statement of Sargsyan, Tsarukyan
responded with a call for a "nationwide mobilization" to oust the
current administration.
In connection with this situation there are assumptions being made
in Armenia that the current political crisis and the possible shocks
may be 'inspired' from outside. In particular, some think that the
current leadership of Armenia has decided to return to more active
relations with the West "to the detriment" of its relations with
Russia. And Moscow has opted for a change of government.
As an argument to substantiate this version some cite the fact
that President Sargsyan made a loud statement on the day the new US
ambassador Richard Mills arrived in Armenia. During their meeting
Sargsyan reportedly discussed the preparation of a framework trade and
investment agreement between the United States and Armenia. Armenia
cannot conclude such an agreement without the consent of the members
of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union. At the same time, in the
economic situation like today's only such an agreement can become a
salvation for Armenia.
Interestingly, commenting on the political situation and the tough
speech by Sargsyan Ambassador Mills noted that he himself was from
the state of Louisiana, where it is normal for politicians to use such
language. He also said that if President Sargsyan ordered a probe into
allegations of Tsarukyan's tax evasion and possible involvement in
other crimes, then this probe must be conducted strictly in accordance
with the law.
As for 'Moscow's hand', analyst Modest Kolerov, the chief editor of
the Regnum news agency who stands close to the Kremlin, answering
the question of the 168 Zham newspaper on whether Tsarukyan can get
support of the Kremlin, said: "No, he cannot. If the matter concerns
a respected politician, philanthropist, businessman, there can be no
problems. But if a person is forming an opposition, he must clearly
and specifically say what alternative he offers with his personality.
We do not have a clear answer to this question."
A few days before Sargsyan's speech a PAP delegation headed by
Tsarukyan was in Moscow. During the meeting with the leadership
of the State Duma committee for the Eurasian Union Tsarukyan said
that by joining the Russian-led trade bloc Armenia has made its
"civilizational choice", and that he personally is for the development
and strengthening of relations with Russia.
If Sargsyan is really going to ask the West for help, then the
pro-Russian orientation of Tsarukyan could become an "alternative" for
Russia. And then Moscow will have some reasons to back the PAP leader.
However, media and social networks are also considering another
version of intensification of opposition groups in early 2015.
On April 24, Armenia is going to mark the 100th anniversary of the
Armenian Genocide, which promises to be an important geopolitical
event. Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has openly declared
that his country is doing everything to 'neutralize' the impact
of events in Yerevan. And some in Armenia and Karabakh considering
what is happening in Armenia in the context of the Turkish plans. In
particular, it concerns the activation of a hardline opposition group
known as Founding Parliament, which has announced protests and, in
fact, the beginning of a revolution on April 24. It is difficult to
say whether Founding Parliament is connected with the Tsarukyan party.
http://armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/60634/armenia_opposition_trio_outside_forces
ANALYSIS | 16.02.15 | 10:37
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
Armenia's opposition trio is going to hold an "urgent all-national
rally" on February 20 to discuss further steps of its struggle with the
people. The need for such steps emerged after President Serzh Sargsyan
called Gagik Tsarukyan, the leader of the Prosperous Armenia Party,
a key member of the trio, a 'pseudo-political phenomenon".
Before that Tsarukyan practically put forward an ultimatum to
the authorities. And then to the statement of Sargsyan, Tsarukyan
responded with a call for a "nationwide mobilization" to oust the
current administration.
In connection with this situation there are assumptions being made
in Armenia that the current political crisis and the possible shocks
may be 'inspired' from outside. In particular, some think that the
current leadership of Armenia has decided to return to more active
relations with the West "to the detriment" of its relations with
Russia. And Moscow has opted for a change of government.
As an argument to substantiate this version some cite the fact
that President Sargsyan made a loud statement on the day the new US
ambassador Richard Mills arrived in Armenia. During their meeting
Sargsyan reportedly discussed the preparation of a framework trade and
investment agreement between the United States and Armenia. Armenia
cannot conclude such an agreement without the consent of the members
of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union. At the same time, in the
economic situation like today's only such an agreement can become a
salvation for Armenia.
Interestingly, commenting on the political situation and the tough
speech by Sargsyan Ambassador Mills noted that he himself was from
the state of Louisiana, where it is normal for politicians to use such
language. He also said that if President Sargsyan ordered a probe into
allegations of Tsarukyan's tax evasion and possible involvement in
other crimes, then this probe must be conducted strictly in accordance
with the law.
As for 'Moscow's hand', analyst Modest Kolerov, the chief editor of
the Regnum news agency who stands close to the Kremlin, answering
the question of the 168 Zham newspaper on whether Tsarukyan can get
support of the Kremlin, said: "No, he cannot. If the matter concerns
a respected politician, philanthropist, businessman, there can be no
problems. But if a person is forming an opposition, he must clearly
and specifically say what alternative he offers with his personality.
We do not have a clear answer to this question."
A few days before Sargsyan's speech a PAP delegation headed by
Tsarukyan was in Moscow. During the meeting with the leadership
of the State Duma committee for the Eurasian Union Tsarukyan said
that by joining the Russian-led trade bloc Armenia has made its
"civilizational choice", and that he personally is for the development
and strengthening of relations with Russia.
If Sargsyan is really going to ask the West for help, then the
pro-Russian orientation of Tsarukyan could become an "alternative" for
Russia. And then Moscow will have some reasons to back the PAP leader.
However, media and social networks are also considering another
version of intensification of opposition groups in early 2015.
On April 24, Armenia is going to mark the 100th anniversary of the
Armenian Genocide, which promises to be an important geopolitical
event. Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has openly declared
that his country is doing everything to 'neutralize' the impact
of events in Yerevan. And some in Armenia and Karabakh considering
what is happening in Armenia in the context of the Turkish plans. In
particular, it concerns the activation of a hardline opposition group
known as Founding Parliament, which has announced protests and, in
fact, the beginning of a revolution on April 24. It is difficult to
say whether Founding Parliament is connected with the Tsarukyan party.
http://armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/60634/armenia_opposition_trio_outside_forces