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RUSSIA 'ARMING ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN' AS HOSTILITIES INCREASE
Newsweek Magazine
Feb 17 2015
By Felicity Capon 2/17/15 at 2:04 PM
Nagorno-Karabakh is the subject of a two-decade long conflict between
Azerbaijan and Armenia REUTERS/David Mdzinarishvili (ARMENIA)
A resurgence of fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijani troops over
the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh has led to analysts warning
of escalating hostilities and even an "accidental war" between the
two countries. They also indicated that Russia could use the conflict
as a way to consolidate power in the region.
Two Armenian and Azerbaijani soldiers and one Armenian civilian have
been killed this month alone, and it is thought that at least a dozen
have been killed in the conflict since the start of the new year.
Nagorno-Karabakh is a landlocked mountainous region, and is the
subject of a two-decade long conflict between Azerbaijan, in whose
territory the region lies, and its predominantly Armenian community.
Officially, active hostilities ended in 1994 when a ceasefire was
reached, but skirmishes along the border have been a common feature of
the conflict since then. However, experts are now warning that this
year's developments have been much worse than usual with increased
casualties, both civilian and military, sustained on both sides. Some
reports estimate ceasefire violations stand at around 5,000 for
January--the highest monthly figure since the truce.
Richard Giragosian, the director of the Regional Studies Center
(RSC), an independent thinktank in Armenia, told Newsweek that he is
"increasingly concerned of a war by accident, based on small skirmishes
spiralling out of control" and says that both sides could be "rushing
headlong into a dangerous situation." He argues that the number of
casualties is very unusual given the topography and the terrain,
with fighting usually confined to the summer. He also expects a much
bigger surge in fighting over the coming months.
Giragosian describes how opposing forces on the frontline have come
much closer to each other in terms of physical proximity than at any
time since the truce, and that the battle space has also expanded, with
Azerbaijan attacking Armenia proper, and not just the Nagorno-Karabakh
border.
Both sides have been much more willing to use arms in the last few
months, and as frustrations about the stalling peace process have
increased, an arms race has escalated, mainly instigated by Azerbaijan,
according to Giragosian. Armenia and Azerbaijan are among the 10
countries with the highest levels of militarisation in the world,
a 2014 study found.
Russia is the main supplier of arms to both sides and, with the ongoing
crisis between Russian-backed separatists and the Ukrainian military
as well as Russia's reportedly aggressive occupational policy against
Georgia, experts are concerned that Putin is considering a bolder
and much riskier move to consolidate power in the region.
Giragosian explains that "The one wildcard in this situation is
Russia. For Russia, the status quo is best: no peace, no war. But
Putin may be tempted by a risky move to provoke fighting to deploy
peacekeepers in order to ensure leverage. Events in Ukraine prove
that Moscow lacks a rational actor."
At the same time, rumours have been circulating in the Azerbaijani
press that the U.S. is funding the Nagorno-Karabakh regime, fuelled
by a powerful Armenian-American lobby. Newsweek cannot substantiate
these claims but Giragosian says that American funding was provided
in the past and has been suspended for the past two fiscal years
because of an inability to oversee the expenditure.
John Macleod, of the London-based Institute for War and Peace
Reporting, says: "Things are particularly bad and there have been
more incidents at the moment. There is always the danger that one
country will overstep the mark and it will spread like wildfire and
there will be war before you know it."
"We don't exactly know what Russia's interests or the implications of
its involvement are. But the Russians are an increasingly pro active
regional player and harbour territorial interests for sure." Macleod
believes it is "feasible" that Russia would send "peacekeeping" troops
to the region under the pretence of bolstering its sphere of influence.
Civilians are also increasingly getting caught up in the violence,
with the Armenian press reporting several casualties, including the
case of a young man who last year wandered into Azerbaijani territory
before reportedly committing suicide in Azerbaijani custody. Last
November, Azerbaijan shot down an attack Armenian helicopter as it
flew along the ceasefire line, killing three Armenians on board.
The timing of the conflict is also key as this year marks the 100th
anniversary of the genocide of Armenians in Turkey, which could
aggravate the already tense situation.
http://www.newsweek.com/russia-arming-armenia-and-azerbaijan-hostilities-increase-307443
Newsweek Magazine
Feb 17 2015
By Felicity Capon 2/17/15 at 2:04 PM
Nagorno-Karabakh is the subject of a two-decade long conflict between
Azerbaijan and Armenia REUTERS/David Mdzinarishvili (ARMENIA)
A resurgence of fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijani troops over
the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh has led to analysts warning
of escalating hostilities and even an "accidental war" between the
two countries. They also indicated that Russia could use the conflict
as a way to consolidate power in the region.
Two Armenian and Azerbaijani soldiers and one Armenian civilian have
been killed this month alone, and it is thought that at least a dozen
have been killed in the conflict since the start of the new year.
Nagorno-Karabakh is a landlocked mountainous region, and is the
subject of a two-decade long conflict between Azerbaijan, in whose
territory the region lies, and its predominantly Armenian community.
Officially, active hostilities ended in 1994 when a ceasefire was
reached, but skirmishes along the border have been a common feature of
the conflict since then. However, experts are now warning that this
year's developments have been much worse than usual with increased
casualties, both civilian and military, sustained on both sides. Some
reports estimate ceasefire violations stand at around 5,000 for
January--the highest monthly figure since the truce.
Richard Giragosian, the director of the Regional Studies Center
(RSC), an independent thinktank in Armenia, told Newsweek that he is
"increasingly concerned of a war by accident, based on small skirmishes
spiralling out of control" and says that both sides could be "rushing
headlong into a dangerous situation." He argues that the number of
casualties is very unusual given the topography and the terrain,
with fighting usually confined to the summer. He also expects a much
bigger surge in fighting over the coming months.
Giragosian describes how opposing forces on the frontline have come
much closer to each other in terms of physical proximity than at any
time since the truce, and that the battle space has also expanded, with
Azerbaijan attacking Armenia proper, and not just the Nagorno-Karabakh
border.
Both sides have been much more willing to use arms in the last few
months, and as frustrations about the stalling peace process have
increased, an arms race has escalated, mainly instigated by Azerbaijan,
according to Giragosian. Armenia and Azerbaijan are among the 10
countries with the highest levels of militarisation in the world,
a 2014 study found.
Russia is the main supplier of arms to both sides and, with the ongoing
crisis between Russian-backed separatists and the Ukrainian military
as well as Russia's reportedly aggressive occupational policy against
Georgia, experts are concerned that Putin is considering a bolder
and much riskier move to consolidate power in the region.
Giragosian explains that "The one wildcard in this situation is
Russia. For Russia, the status quo is best: no peace, no war. But
Putin may be tempted by a risky move to provoke fighting to deploy
peacekeepers in order to ensure leverage. Events in Ukraine prove
that Moscow lacks a rational actor."
At the same time, rumours have been circulating in the Azerbaijani
press that the U.S. is funding the Nagorno-Karabakh regime, fuelled
by a powerful Armenian-American lobby. Newsweek cannot substantiate
these claims but Giragosian says that American funding was provided
in the past and has been suspended for the past two fiscal years
because of an inability to oversee the expenditure.
John Macleod, of the London-based Institute for War and Peace
Reporting, says: "Things are particularly bad and there have been
more incidents at the moment. There is always the danger that one
country will overstep the mark and it will spread like wildfire and
there will be war before you know it."
"We don't exactly know what Russia's interests or the implications of
its involvement are. But the Russians are an increasingly pro active
regional player and harbour territorial interests for sure." Macleod
believes it is "feasible" that Russia would send "peacekeeping" troops
to the region under the pretence of bolstering its sphere of influence.
Civilians are also increasingly getting caught up in the violence,
with the Armenian press reporting several casualties, including the
case of a young man who last year wandered into Azerbaijani territory
before reportedly committing suicide in Azerbaijani custody. Last
November, Azerbaijan shot down an attack Armenian helicopter as it
flew along the ceasefire line, killing three Armenians on board.
The timing of the conflict is also key as this year marks the 100th
anniversary of the genocide of Armenians in Turkey, which could
aggravate the already tense situation.
http://www.newsweek.com/russia-arming-armenia-and-azerbaijan-hostilities-increase-307443