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RUSSIA IS IMPLEMENTING FIRST STAGE OF DESTRUCTION OF ARMENIA
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - 18 February 2015, 13:28
At different stages the Russian policy on the Karabakh issue has
been rather adaptive in style and content. For a long time Russia
preferred the status quo though it took the initiative from time to
time to balance the efforts of the United States to play a crucial
role in the decision making process.
Over many years, especially in 1995-2003 Russia needed the Karabakh
issue for pressure and influence on Azerbaijan, as well as on Armenia.
Russia often hinted to Azerbaijan that its position might change
unless Azerbaijan revises its.
These attempts have not resulted in essential changes in the
Russian-Armenian relations but it has caused lack of confidence in
the Russian policy among the Armenian public. Supply of weapons to
Azerbaijan and ignoring defense needs of Armenia are concerned.
Along with the development of the Russian-Armenian relations the
situation has changed, Armenia receives part of its required armament
from Russia. Russia has made considerable investments in Armenia,
primarily in the spheres of energy, transport and banking sector.
At the same time, in 2008 and in 2009 Russia's attempts to
strengthen its foothold through activation of normalization of the
Armenian-Turkish and Armenian-Azerbaijani relations caused lack of
confidence in the policy and intentions of Russia in Armenia.
Russia has practically thwarted the plans of construction of the
Iran-Armenia interregional gas pipeline, Iran-Armenia railway, a new
NPP, isolating Armenia and blocking the Iran-Europe strategy. Hence,
it became clear that Russia has adopted an overtly hostile policy
against Armenia.
However, Russia has started feeling inconvenient with the Karabakh
topic because it has stopped being an instrument of regional policy
and is increasingly becoming an instrument for the American policy.
Now Russia is faced with building "new", reliable relations with
Azerbaijan, which would allow implementing the settlement of the
Karabakh issue outside the main process of settlement, i.e. the Minsk
Group process.
In autumn 2008 when the initiative of signing the treaties of Meindorf
was put forth, the United States made it clear that it will not accept
some "alternative" solutions for the Karabakh settlement which will not
be legitimate. It played a role in thwarting the Meindorf initiative
but Russia decided to return to this format in the early 2010.
Moscow understands very well that the process of settlement which is
based on the Principles of Madrid accepted by all the stakeholders
has failed. Therefore, the world centers of power will sooner or
later propose new format and new principles of settlement of the
Karabakh issue.
Russia does not intend to wait for new initiatives and is trying to
promote its own proposals, calculating that its relations with Armenia
and Azerbaijan are more important and meaningful than the relations
of these states with the United States and the Western community.
No doubt the Karabakh issue will generate more complications in the
Russian-Armenian relations if Russia proposes acceptable territorial
concessions. For the time being, building "new relations" with
Azerbaijan is concerned which are far from a clear understanding of
the prospect.
In 2010 Azerbaijan faced significant problems in its relations with
the United States and the EU, as well as Turkey, and Baku realized
that in 2008-2009 they missed the opportunity to gain advantage in
the process of the Karabakh settlement. Therefore, Baku will be more
attentive to Russia's proposals which may become alternative options
of settlement of this problem.
There years ago Putin's Alexander Dugin told me with unhidden
reluctance in the presence of an Armenian official that the Armenians
should not try to achieve the recognition of NKR by the United States.
He openly threatened Armenia with a disaster. In addition, it was
conveyed that Russia will never recognize NKR.
It should be noted that the current status of Karabakh fully fits
the interests of Russia.
Hence, Russia the ally is against the independence of NKR. The
existing lack of autonomy of NKR is part of Russia's plans. Karabakh
does not have a political leadership, only some administration which
is devoid of any political rights. Of course, no state will recognize
the independence of a non-sovereign province.
The NKR administration understands its own situation very well and
leads a miserable existence, announcing that the purpose of NKR is
to achieve international recognition. It is not clear why this is
being done, and if anything is done at all to achieve recognition
of independence.
The statements that NKR must be a party in the talks are a showcase,
profanation. In reality, it has nothing to do with autonomy. It is
not even understood who is capable of negotiating on behalf of NKR.
If someone claims the right to negotiate on behalf of NKR, the purpose
will be ensuring the legitimacy of handing Karabakh to Azerbaijan.
Besides, it should be noted that neither Abkhazia, nor South Ossetia
had so many Russian agents. Who will recognize the independence of
such a province?
It is possible that the integration of Armenia with NATO would
lead to the "recognition of the rights of Karabakh", afterwards the
recognition of its independence as a region which has a tendency for
independence. However, September 3 laid a gravestone on Karabakh,
and there is no doubt that this topic was absent in all the possible
discussions.
Armenia and Karabakh are mostly worried about proposals involving
peacekeepers in the conflict area. In addition, there is no doubt
that the peacekeepers will eventually play according to the rules of
the game that favors Azerbaijan, and it is impossible to overcome it
through any treaty.
Stationing Russian peacekeepers is but return of Karabakh under
Azerbaijan's control which has become not only Russia's real ally but
part of the "Russian world". There is already such sad experience and
the Armenian leadership and public are pretending to have forgotten
the developments of the early 1990s.
The Russian troops have left a sad memory in Nagorno-Karabakh because
they were after infringement on the will and rights of the Armenian
population. The Russian troops clamped down on the Armenians twice,
in 1991 and 1992, organizing two punitive campaigns killing over 1000
Armenians, destroying over 40 Armenian settlements. They participated
in genocidal actions against the Armenians and displacing Armenians
from several regions of Karabakh.
No matter how the political and other conditions of the region change,
these developments cannot be ignored during the discussion of Russian
and other peacekeepers.
Supply of Russian weapons to Azerbaijan has made the latter think
that it has won the arms race and revenge is possible. This year was
a period of major military sabotages to which Russia did not react,
perceiving it as a condition of maintaining tension.
Putin has tried to appear as the one who curbs Azerbaijan's aggression,
which ended up in escalation. If Russia wished, the border incidents
would stop over a night. Meanwhile, Russia needs escalation to have
an argument for stationing "peacekeepers", i.e. occupation.
However, the Karabakh issue is the only temporary condition for Russia
to control the region. Russia is not interested in including Armenia
in the Eurasian project. All Russia is interested in is its isolation
which it has achieved.
Now Russia has appeared in international isolation and blockade,
which is a disaster for Armenia. Russia is getting close to Turkey and
Azerbaijan, and the loss of sovereignty and statehood of Armenia is
a premise. The Armenian society could not and did not want to react
to this, accepting capitulation. If the Western community failed
to withdraw Armenia from its state of vassal, the first stage of
destruction of the country will be ceding Karabakh to Azerbaijan.
This is the product of the Russian policy, which has become enemy
N 1 of the Armenian people. The people of Nagorno-Karabakh may feel
the end and repel this Russian policy.
The old legend of Karabakh is over, they have not invented the new
one. Who is the author of the new legend of Karabakh?
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33647#sthash.2nG13zCe.dpuf
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - 18 February 2015, 13:28
At different stages the Russian policy on the Karabakh issue has
been rather adaptive in style and content. For a long time Russia
preferred the status quo though it took the initiative from time to
time to balance the efforts of the United States to play a crucial
role in the decision making process.
Over many years, especially in 1995-2003 Russia needed the Karabakh
issue for pressure and influence on Azerbaijan, as well as on Armenia.
Russia often hinted to Azerbaijan that its position might change
unless Azerbaijan revises its.
These attempts have not resulted in essential changes in the
Russian-Armenian relations but it has caused lack of confidence in
the Russian policy among the Armenian public. Supply of weapons to
Azerbaijan and ignoring defense needs of Armenia are concerned.
Along with the development of the Russian-Armenian relations the
situation has changed, Armenia receives part of its required armament
from Russia. Russia has made considerable investments in Armenia,
primarily in the spheres of energy, transport and banking sector.
At the same time, in 2008 and in 2009 Russia's attempts to
strengthen its foothold through activation of normalization of the
Armenian-Turkish and Armenian-Azerbaijani relations caused lack of
confidence in the policy and intentions of Russia in Armenia.
Russia has practically thwarted the plans of construction of the
Iran-Armenia interregional gas pipeline, Iran-Armenia railway, a new
NPP, isolating Armenia and blocking the Iran-Europe strategy. Hence,
it became clear that Russia has adopted an overtly hostile policy
against Armenia.
However, Russia has started feeling inconvenient with the Karabakh
topic because it has stopped being an instrument of regional policy
and is increasingly becoming an instrument for the American policy.
Now Russia is faced with building "new", reliable relations with
Azerbaijan, which would allow implementing the settlement of the
Karabakh issue outside the main process of settlement, i.e. the Minsk
Group process.
In autumn 2008 when the initiative of signing the treaties of Meindorf
was put forth, the United States made it clear that it will not accept
some "alternative" solutions for the Karabakh settlement which will not
be legitimate. It played a role in thwarting the Meindorf initiative
but Russia decided to return to this format in the early 2010.
Moscow understands very well that the process of settlement which is
based on the Principles of Madrid accepted by all the stakeholders
has failed. Therefore, the world centers of power will sooner or
later propose new format and new principles of settlement of the
Karabakh issue.
Russia does not intend to wait for new initiatives and is trying to
promote its own proposals, calculating that its relations with Armenia
and Azerbaijan are more important and meaningful than the relations
of these states with the United States and the Western community.
No doubt the Karabakh issue will generate more complications in the
Russian-Armenian relations if Russia proposes acceptable territorial
concessions. For the time being, building "new relations" with
Azerbaijan is concerned which are far from a clear understanding of
the prospect.
In 2010 Azerbaijan faced significant problems in its relations with
the United States and the EU, as well as Turkey, and Baku realized
that in 2008-2009 they missed the opportunity to gain advantage in
the process of the Karabakh settlement. Therefore, Baku will be more
attentive to Russia's proposals which may become alternative options
of settlement of this problem.
There years ago Putin's Alexander Dugin told me with unhidden
reluctance in the presence of an Armenian official that the Armenians
should not try to achieve the recognition of NKR by the United States.
He openly threatened Armenia with a disaster. In addition, it was
conveyed that Russia will never recognize NKR.
It should be noted that the current status of Karabakh fully fits
the interests of Russia.
Hence, Russia the ally is against the independence of NKR. The
existing lack of autonomy of NKR is part of Russia's plans. Karabakh
does not have a political leadership, only some administration which
is devoid of any political rights. Of course, no state will recognize
the independence of a non-sovereign province.
The NKR administration understands its own situation very well and
leads a miserable existence, announcing that the purpose of NKR is
to achieve international recognition. It is not clear why this is
being done, and if anything is done at all to achieve recognition
of independence.
The statements that NKR must be a party in the talks are a showcase,
profanation. In reality, it has nothing to do with autonomy. It is
not even understood who is capable of negotiating on behalf of NKR.
If someone claims the right to negotiate on behalf of NKR, the purpose
will be ensuring the legitimacy of handing Karabakh to Azerbaijan.
Besides, it should be noted that neither Abkhazia, nor South Ossetia
had so many Russian agents. Who will recognize the independence of
such a province?
It is possible that the integration of Armenia with NATO would
lead to the "recognition of the rights of Karabakh", afterwards the
recognition of its independence as a region which has a tendency for
independence. However, September 3 laid a gravestone on Karabakh,
and there is no doubt that this topic was absent in all the possible
discussions.
Armenia and Karabakh are mostly worried about proposals involving
peacekeepers in the conflict area. In addition, there is no doubt
that the peacekeepers will eventually play according to the rules of
the game that favors Azerbaijan, and it is impossible to overcome it
through any treaty.
Stationing Russian peacekeepers is but return of Karabakh under
Azerbaijan's control which has become not only Russia's real ally but
part of the "Russian world". There is already such sad experience and
the Armenian leadership and public are pretending to have forgotten
the developments of the early 1990s.
The Russian troops have left a sad memory in Nagorno-Karabakh because
they were after infringement on the will and rights of the Armenian
population. The Russian troops clamped down on the Armenians twice,
in 1991 and 1992, organizing two punitive campaigns killing over 1000
Armenians, destroying over 40 Armenian settlements. They participated
in genocidal actions against the Armenians and displacing Armenians
from several regions of Karabakh.
No matter how the political and other conditions of the region change,
these developments cannot be ignored during the discussion of Russian
and other peacekeepers.
Supply of Russian weapons to Azerbaijan has made the latter think
that it has won the arms race and revenge is possible. This year was
a period of major military sabotages to which Russia did not react,
perceiving it as a condition of maintaining tension.
Putin has tried to appear as the one who curbs Azerbaijan's aggression,
which ended up in escalation. If Russia wished, the border incidents
would stop over a night. Meanwhile, Russia needs escalation to have
an argument for stationing "peacekeepers", i.e. occupation.
However, the Karabakh issue is the only temporary condition for Russia
to control the region. Russia is not interested in including Armenia
in the Eurasian project. All Russia is interested in is its isolation
which it has achieved.
Now Russia has appeared in international isolation and blockade,
which is a disaster for Armenia. Russia is getting close to Turkey and
Azerbaijan, and the loss of sovereignty and statehood of Armenia is
a premise. The Armenian society could not and did not want to react
to this, accepting capitulation. If the Western community failed
to withdraw Armenia from its state of vassal, the first stage of
destruction of the country will be ceding Karabakh to Azerbaijan.
This is the product of the Russian policy, which has become enemy
N 1 of the Armenian people. The people of Nagorno-Karabakh may feel
the end and repel this Russian policy.
The old legend of Karabakh is over, they have not invented the new
one. Who is the author of the new legend of Karabakh?
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33647#sthash.2nG13zCe.dpuf