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Big Military Conflict: What Is Awaiting Armenia in 2015
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - 04 January 2015, 01:08
First and foremost, it should be noted that the past two years were so
important and deciding that the next year's developments go without
saying.
In Eastern Europe the European Union will carry on the policy defined
by the U.S. policy and interest. The Western community is likely to
stop the policy of waiting as it has become more dangerous than it
used to be and it must ensure limitations for Russia's expansion.
Moscow has realized this and is discussing who the next leader of
Russia will be, what policy he must carry out if it is taken into
account that Putin has always been seen as an experimental and interim
actor.
The states of Eastern Europe will have a lot of opportunities to
integrate with not only the European Union but also NATO as new
partners. In addition, resolutions on domestic issues will be rejected
because there are no signs of "color revolutions". It would have been
useless because all the necessary priorities have been picked up, and
the main figures have been "arranged" on the map.
Some of these figures in Eastern Europe have received the status of
actors, others were deprived of this status, and their countries have
already been involved in comprehensible and expected projects.
This time nobody will save Russia because nobody needs Russia. It will
be limited to a new zone of external security.
A new game will take place in the Black Sea-Caucasian region: though
with some difficulty but Russia will be gradually ousted from there.
The West will help rapprochement between Turkey and Russia, defining
their status: Russia will be a regional and closed country and Turkey
will be an adversary or even enemy of the Western society. Two
countries become objects of the policy of dual containment.
Russia will beware involvement in conflicts but it will not succeed
fully. In the Near East they will do everything without Russia,
preferring its involvement in Central Asia's affairs, keeping in mind
Afghanistan. In addition, CSTO will most probably start to collapse
because Russia intended to politicize this bloc excessively. The
countries of Central Asia will realize that Russia is not capable of
guaranteeing their security.
Apparently, there will be a big military conflict between Armenia and
Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan's armed forces will be defeated. Russia will
try to use this to boost its role in the South Caucasus but it will
have to admit losing its influence on Armenia.
The West will launch more activities in the South Caucasus and NATO's
military presence in the region will increase.
Apparently, there will be a political assassination in Armenia. The
moods of some political circles which are rather radical will be thus
expressed.
The year will be marked by revelation of what political organizations
are linked to transnational organized crime, primarily in Eastern
Europe which will try to use the services of these criminal
organizations for political purposes. Someone will be too interested
in working out such scenarios and may achieve success in propaganda
and revelations.
The close link between criminal centers and political centers of
Eastern Europe will become known. Such a prospect is awaiting Armenia
though they will try to do it within the framework of a "quiet
intrigue" after Armenia's model. Everything will be clarified
otherwise after Georgia's and Ukraine's model.
Russia bewares losing control over Armenia aside from Georgia.
Moscow's politicians will listen to better informed and knowledgeable
organizations and will be ready to act in that direction. In 2015 the
criminal world will become Moscow's "last refuge".
Consistent elimination of Russian military and economic presence is
awaiting Armenia, and conditions will be put forth to functionaries,
the country, not politicians, who understand very well that there is
no alternative to integration with the European Union and NATO. The
Eurasian project will be ridiculed then and eventually collapse.
The West will retain a lot of conditions of functioning of Armenia's
financial system but unlike Belarus Armenia will be practically taken
under care because creating a new economy is impossible without
changing former functionaries. More exactly, they will be carrying out
the objectives that will be set by international financial
organizations.
On the whole, the year is going to be favorable and fruitful, the
prices of food will not be high.
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33374#sthash.7MjhA1nU.dpuf
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - 04 January 2015, 01:08
First and foremost, it should be noted that the past two years were so
important and deciding that the next year's developments go without
saying.
In Eastern Europe the European Union will carry on the policy defined
by the U.S. policy and interest. The Western community is likely to
stop the policy of waiting as it has become more dangerous than it
used to be and it must ensure limitations for Russia's expansion.
Moscow has realized this and is discussing who the next leader of
Russia will be, what policy he must carry out if it is taken into
account that Putin has always been seen as an experimental and interim
actor.
The states of Eastern Europe will have a lot of opportunities to
integrate with not only the European Union but also NATO as new
partners. In addition, resolutions on domestic issues will be rejected
because there are no signs of "color revolutions". It would have been
useless because all the necessary priorities have been picked up, and
the main figures have been "arranged" on the map.
Some of these figures in Eastern Europe have received the status of
actors, others were deprived of this status, and their countries have
already been involved in comprehensible and expected projects.
This time nobody will save Russia because nobody needs Russia. It will
be limited to a new zone of external security.
A new game will take place in the Black Sea-Caucasian region: though
with some difficulty but Russia will be gradually ousted from there.
The West will help rapprochement between Turkey and Russia, defining
their status: Russia will be a regional and closed country and Turkey
will be an adversary or even enemy of the Western society. Two
countries become objects of the policy of dual containment.
Russia will beware involvement in conflicts but it will not succeed
fully. In the Near East they will do everything without Russia,
preferring its involvement in Central Asia's affairs, keeping in mind
Afghanistan. In addition, CSTO will most probably start to collapse
because Russia intended to politicize this bloc excessively. The
countries of Central Asia will realize that Russia is not capable of
guaranteeing their security.
Apparently, there will be a big military conflict between Armenia and
Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan's armed forces will be defeated. Russia will
try to use this to boost its role in the South Caucasus but it will
have to admit losing its influence on Armenia.
The West will launch more activities in the South Caucasus and NATO's
military presence in the region will increase.
Apparently, there will be a political assassination in Armenia. The
moods of some political circles which are rather radical will be thus
expressed.
The year will be marked by revelation of what political organizations
are linked to transnational organized crime, primarily in Eastern
Europe which will try to use the services of these criminal
organizations for political purposes. Someone will be too interested
in working out such scenarios and may achieve success in propaganda
and revelations.
The close link between criminal centers and political centers of
Eastern Europe will become known. Such a prospect is awaiting Armenia
though they will try to do it within the framework of a "quiet
intrigue" after Armenia's model. Everything will be clarified
otherwise after Georgia's and Ukraine's model.
Russia bewares losing control over Armenia aside from Georgia.
Moscow's politicians will listen to better informed and knowledgeable
organizations and will be ready to act in that direction. In 2015 the
criminal world will become Moscow's "last refuge".
Consistent elimination of Russian military and economic presence is
awaiting Armenia, and conditions will be put forth to functionaries,
the country, not politicians, who understand very well that there is
no alternative to integration with the European Union and NATO. The
Eurasian project will be ridiculed then and eventually collapse.
The West will retain a lot of conditions of functioning of Armenia's
financial system but unlike Belarus Armenia will be practically taken
under care because creating a new economy is impossible without
changing former functionaries. More exactly, they will be carrying out
the objectives that will be set by international financial
organizations.
On the whole, the year is going to be favorable and fruitful, the
prices of food will not be high.
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33374#sthash.7MjhA1nU.dpuf