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Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
Jan 6 2015
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: seven days a week
6 January 2015 - 3:37pm
Andrei Petrov exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
On January 3rd near-border and front-line Azerbaijani villages were
shelled by large-caliber weapons and mortar-guns. After that, cases of
breaking the ceasefire regime on the frontline between the Armenian
and Azerbaijani armies became frequent. Last night the villages of
Gyzylgadjily and Kemerli in the Gazakh Region were shelled. The region
is situated on the border with Georgia, i.e. far away from the zone of
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
The breaking of the ceasefire regime is a normal practice these days,
but previously the Armenian armed forces which occupy Nagorno-Karabakh
and neighboring territories fired from automatic guns only. There was
no mass shelling of non-military facilities from anti-armor
mortar-guns since the active military operation in Karabakh.
It means the opponents of a peaceful settlement of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict intend to provoke the Armed Forces of
Azerbaijan for similar or counter-measures and activities on the state
Armenian-Azerbaijani border. That's why the Gazakh Region in the
northwest of the country was chosen, as it has never seen military
activities for Karabakh. Any Azerbaijani bullet which gets on the
territory of Armenia, rather than the occupied territories of
Azerbaijan, will be used by the Armenian party of war, i.e. the ruling
party, for preventing negotiations and preserving the status quo.
Moreover, as Armenia is a member of the CSTO, a successful provocation
on the state border would create an opportunity for formal involvement
of CSTO forces to protect Armenian territories.
At the same time, Yerevan would probably make only political
statements on the issue, as it is not beneficial for it to have
international witnesses of the developments on the border with
Azerbaijan. Russian troops protect Armenia's borders with Turkey and
Iran, but not with Azerbaijan. The Armenian party of war improves its
arsenal of provocations, makes them more direct and crude in their
form. It means that in the very near future we should expect a more
serious breaking of the ceasefire regime, i.e. almost a rejection by
Armenia of the Bishkek Protocol.
Meanwhile, the international community didn't react to the escalation
of violence in the conflict zone. The world didn't notice the
explosion of bombs and threats to ordinary people's lives on the
frontline between the Azerbaijani and Armenian armies in the context
of the New Year holidays. The American co-chairman of the OSCE Minsk
Group, James Warlick, "worked" for the whole key mediating
organization in the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement and made a short
informal post on his Twitter page. At the moment, there is no official
statement on the issue from the OSCE Minsk Group. Yesterday the U.S.
Department of State expressed concerns about firing in the conflict
zone, urging the sides to return to peaceful negotiations under the
Minsk Group, which didn't react to the firing at all.
That was the only reaction of the international community. It seems,
despite the August escalation in the conflict zone, which led to a
record-breaking number of deaths during the whole ceasefire regime,
and the November helicopter attack on Azerbaijani positions,
international players still believe that the intensified
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict remains "frozen." However, the prospects of
further provocations and even restoration of military activities in
Karabakh demand the cancellation of "legal vacations" and focusing on
the developments happening over Karabakh by the international
community, first of all the Minsk Group.
This is not impossible. Modern history has examples of intensive
mediation by international players in international and internal
conflicts, which were expressed in effective diplomatic work,
political and economic pressure on aggressors. The absence of a
consolidated international reaction to the events over Karabakh not
only delays a resolution of the conflict, but also encourages the
aggressive and provocative policy of the occupants, i.e. the hot phase
of the unfinished war, even though, according to statements of the
international community, it doesn't want a restoration of war.
From: Baghdasarian
Jan 6 2015
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: seven days a week
6 January 2015 - 3:37pm
Andrei Petrov exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
On January 3rd near-border and front-line Azerbaijani villages were
shelled by large-caliber weapons and mortar-guns. After that, cases of
breaking the ceasefire regime on the frontline between the Armenian
and Azerbaijani armies became frequent. Last night the villages of
Gyzylgadjily and Kemerli in the Gazakh Region were shelled. The region
is situated on the border with Georgia, i.e. far away from the zone of
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
The breaking of the ceasefire regime is a normal practice these days,
but previously the Armenian armed forces which occupy Nagorno-Karabakh
and neighboring territories fired from automatic guns only. There was
no mass shelling of non-military facilities from anti-armor
mortar-guns since the active military operation in Karabakh.
It means the opponents of a peaceful settlement of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict intend to provoke the Armed Forces of
Azerbaijan for similar or counter-measures and activities on the state
Armenian-Azerbaijani border. That's why the Gazakh Region in the
northwest of the country was chosen, as it has never seen military
activities for Karabakh. Any Azerbaijani bullet which gets on the
territory of Armenia, rather than the occupied territories of
Azerbaijan, will be used by the Armenian party of war, i.e. the ruling
party, for preventing negotiations and preserving the status quo.
Moreover, as Armenia is a member of the CSTO, a successful provocation
on the state border would create an opportunity for formal involvement
of CSTO forces to protect Armenian territories.
At the same time, Yerevan would probably make only political
statements on the issue, as it is not beneficial for it to have
international witnesses of the developments on the border with
Azerbaijan. Russian troops protect Armenia's borders with Turkey and
Iran, but not with Azerbaijan. The Armenian party of war improves its
arsenal of provocations, makes them more direct and crude in their
form. It means that in the very near future we should expect a more
serious breaking of the ceasefire regime, i.e. almost a rejection by
Armenia of the Bishkek Protocol.
Meanwhile, the international community didn't react to the escalation
of violence in the conflict zone. The world didn't notice the
explosion of bombs and threats to ordinary people's lives on the
frontline between the Azerbaijani and Armenian armies in the context
of the New Year holidays. The American co-chairman of the OSCE Minsk
Group, James Warlick, "worked" for the whole key mediating
organization in the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement and made a short
informal post on his Twitter page. At the moment, there is no official
statement on the issue from the OSCE Minsk Group. Yesterday the U.S.
Department of State expressed concerns about firing in the conflict
zone, urging the sides to return to peaceful negotiations under the
Minsk Group, which didn't react to the firing at all.
That was the only reaction of the international community. It seems,
despite the August escalation in the conflict zone, which led to a
record-breaking number of deaths during the whole ceasefire regime,
and the November helicopter attack on Azerbaijani positions,
international players still believe that the intensified
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict remains "frozen." However, the prospects of
further provocations and even restoration of military activities in
Karabakh demand the cancellation of "legal vacations" and focusing on
the developments happening over Karabakh by the international
community, first of all the Minsk Group.
This is not impossible. Modern history has examples of intensive
mediation by international players in international and internal
conflicts, which were expressed in effective diplomatic work,
political and economic pressure on aggressors. The absence of a
consolidated international reaction to the events over Karabakh not
only delays a resolution of the conflict, but also encourages the
aggressive and provocative policy of the occupants, i.e. the hot phase
of the unfinished war, even though, according to statements of the
international community, it doesn't want a restoration of war.
From: Baghdasarian