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Eurasian Union not to mean much in resolving issues as Karabakh - analyst
Tue 06 January 2015 14:23 GMT | 14:23 Local Time
News.Az interviews Dr. Hans Gutbrod, Caucasus Analyst, previously with
Caucasus Research Resource Centers.
There are some signs from Georgian and Russian sides to normalize
bilateral relations. But Russians says that they are not going to
discuss Georgia's territorial integrity problem. How are the prospects
of rapprochement process in this regard?
Russia's main leverage in the South Caucasus, next to energy supplies,
are questions of territorial integrity. It is unlikely that Russia
will move much, not least since it can offer a number of other
benefits in terms of trade, energy prices, and the status of migrant
workers. For now, Georgia is unlikely to make much progress on its
territorial integrity.
Do you believe that Russia will succeed to open railway with Georgia
via Abkhazia? Georgia is against this project, as it seems at the
moment.
Opening the railway between Georgia and Abkhazia would be great from
the point of view of infrastructure and transport connections. It
could also offer cheaper and reliable export routes for products from
Georgia, to the extent that Russia does not ban them. However, opening
that railway implies some sort of recognition of Abkhazia, for example
in dealing with customs. For this to become a realistic prospect,
Russia and Abkhazia would need to go a long way towards meeting
Georgian concerns. There are few signs of that the moment.
How can you explain the last activeness in Russia-Azerbaijan relations?
Russia has not been easy to read in the last year. Ukraine dominated
much of Russia's external relationships, sometimes leading to
contradictory signs and reactions. The impression is that the Russian
elite itself has not quite made up its mind, whether to go for all-out
confrontation with Europe and the West, or whether to pursue more
limited aims. This has an impact on the South Caucasus, too. Russia is
engaging more, but also giving very mixed signals.
How can Armenia's membership in Eurasian Union influence the Karabakh
settlement? And, by the way, do you believe that Azerbaijan may join
this organization?
The Eurasian Union is new and untested. Arguably, it is the union of
governments that have reasons to be afraid of their own people. Their
authoritarian leanings make them both strong - no checks and balances
- and vulnerable, as a political defeat almost always means exile or
jail, or even death. I do not think we can expect much
programmatically from the Eurasian Union, in setting policies that
matter to people. Nor will it mean very much in actually resolving
concrete issues such as Karabakh. The Eurasian Union is reactive,
there is little of a positive forward vision there, as of now.
http://news.az/articles/interviews/94766
Tue 06 January 2015 14:23 GMT | 14:23 Local Time
News.Az interviews Dr. Hans Gutbrod, Caucasus Analyst, previously with
Caucasus Research Resource Centers.
There are some signs from Georgian and Russian sides to normalize
bilateral relations. But Russians says that they are not going to
discuss Georgia's territorial integrity problem. How are the prospects
of rapprochement process in this regard?
Russia's main leverage in the South Caucasus, next to energy supplies,
are questions of territorial integrity. It is unlikely that Russia
will move much, not least since it can offer a number of other
benefits in terms of trade, energy prices, and the status of migrant
workers. For now, Georgia is unlikely to make much progress on its
territorial integrity.
Do you believe that Russia will succeed to open railway with Georgia
via Abkhazia? Georgia is against this project, as it seems at the
moment.
Opening the railway between Georgia and Abkhazia would be great from
the point of view of infrastructure and transport connections. It
could also offer cheaper and reliable export routes for products from
Georgia, to the extent that Russia does not ban them. However, opening
that railway implies some sort of recognition of Abkhazia, for example
in dealing with customs. For this to become a realistic prospect,
Russia and Abkhazia would need to go a long way towards meeting
Georgian concerns. There are few signs of that the moment.
How can you explain the last activeness in Russia-Azerbaijan relations?
Russia has not been easy to read in the last year. Ukraine dominated
much of Russia's external relationships, sometimes leading to
contradictory signs and reactions. The impression is that the Russian
elite itself has not quite made up its mind, whether to go for all-out
confrontation with Europe and the West, or whether to pursue more
limited aims. This has an impact on the South Caucasus, too. Russia is
engaging more, but also giving very mixed signals.
How can Armenia's membership in Eurasian Union influence the Karabakh
settlement? And, by the way, do you believe that Azerbaijan may join
this organization?
The Eurasian Union is new and untested. Arguably, it is the union of
governments that have reasons to be afraid of their own people. Their
authoritarian leanings make them both strong - no checks and balances
- and vulnerable, as a political defeat almost always means exile or
jail, or even death. I do not think we can expect much
programmatically from the Eurasian Union, in setting policies that
matter to people. Nor will it mean very much in actually resolving
concrete issues such as Karabakh. The Eurasian Union is reactive,
there is little of a positive forward vision there, as of now.
http://news.az/articles/interviews/94766