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Armenia must break off negotiations, demand OSCE Minsk Group exert
influence on Azerbaijan - expert
14:42 * 08.01.15
In an interview with Tert.am, political scientist Hrant
Melik-Shahnazaryan cited a number of reasons for latest tensions on
the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, including the centennial of the
Armenian Genocide and the aim to neutralize the new situation
following Armenia's accession to the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).
Mr Melik-Shahnazaryan believes that the Armenian side must break off
the negotiations because the minimum security requirements are not
satisfied.
The Azerbaijani side has committed hundreds of ceasefire violations
since January 1, 2015. The Armenian side has suffered losses - four
Armenian servicemen have been killed.
"I am sure that Azerbaijan is seeking to resolve the numerous problems
by means of one provocation. First, such activity at the end of the
year is a message that Armenia's accession to the EEU does not imply
any changes in the political situation in Armenian-Azerbaijani
relations. And official Baku is trying to make provocations a
day-to-day phenomenon now that Armenia is an EEU member.
"We should not forget that much had been talked about the new security
instruments Armenia would acquire by joining this international
structure, and official Baku is trying to neutralize at least the
perception of the instruments to be able to continue its policy to
sell peace, to show the international community that Azerbaijan
remains an important factor. Further developments in the South
Caucasus depend on that. The second problem they are seeking to
resolve is the centennial of the Armenian Genocide, and Azerbaijan and
Turkey are implementing a joint policy. That is, the Azerbaijan-Turkey
alliance is shaping a different political priority in the South
Caucasus rather than the centennial of the Armenian Genocide, to
neutralize a negative impact of the events on Turkey."
The expert said he agrees to the Armenian authorities' official
position that the country's membership in the EEU guarantees a higher
level of security in light of the Azerbaijani threats.
"The renewal of a large-scale war is clearly a serious threat to the
economy of not only Armenia but also the EEU member states. So in case
of treating it as a threat, the EEU member states should be interested
in the non-renewal of war. I am confident that in case of a higher
degree of threat, they will seek to influence Azerbaijan, trying all
their best to prevent such hazards to the EEU, at least on the
economic level. And I am sure there is no threat of a large-scale war
at the current stage, though the EEU attention is not drawn to the
Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict as of now. I am sure Azerbaijan sees the
possible aftermath, so there is a boundary it cannot cross. What
Azerbaijan is trying to do now is to resolve a minimal problem," he
noted.
As for Russia's commitments as a security guarantor, the analyst said
he finds that they have more to do with the country's membership in
the Collective Security Treaty Organization. He called for demanding
stronger efforts by allies towards minimizing Azerbaijani tensions
against Armenia through political pressures. "Armenia must make calls
for continuing the talks, and they have to first of address the
maintenance of the minimal security level: snipers' withdrawal from
the border zone and the creation of monitoring groups investigating
border incidents. Before these conditions are fulfilled, Armenia must
stop the negotiation process, and urge the international community,
especially the [OSCE] Minsk Group, to use their entire influence to
hold Azerbaijan back from its aggressive policies," he added.
http://www.tert.am/en/news/2015/01/08/meliq-shahnazarian/1553736
influence on Azerbaijan - expert
14:42 * 08.01.15
In an interview with Tert.am, political scientist Hrant
Melik-Shahnazaryan cited a number of reasons for latest tensions on
the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, including the centennial of the
Armenian Genocide and the aim to neutralize the new situation
following Armenia's accession to the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).
Mr Melik-Shahnazaryan believes that the Armenian side must break off
the negotiations because the minimum security requirements are not
satisfied.
The Azerbaijani side has committed hundreds of ceasefire violations
since January 1, 2015. The Armenian side has suffered losses - four
Armenian servicemen have been killed.
"I am sure that Azerbaijan is seeking to resolve the numerous problems
by means of one provocation. First, such activity at the end of the
year is a message that Armenia's accession to the EEU does not imply
any changes in the political situation in Armenian-Azerbaijani
relations. And official Baku is trying to make provocations a
day-to-day phenomenon now that Armenia is an EEU member.
"We should not forget that much had been talked about the new security
instruments Armenia would acquire by joining this international
structure, and official Baku is trying to neutralize at least the
perception of the instruments to be able to continue its policy to
sell peace, to show the international community that Azerbaijan
remains an important factor. Further developments in the South
Caucasus depend on that. The second problem they are seeking to
resolve is the centennial of the Armenian Genocide, and Azerbaijan and
Turkey are implementing a joint policy. That is, the Azerbaijan-Turkey
alliance is shaping a different political priority in the South
Caucasus rather than the centennial of the Armenian Genocide, to
neutralize a negative impact of the events on Turkey."
The expert said he agrees to the Armenian authorities' official
position that the country's membership in the EEU guarantees a higher
level of security in light of the Azerbaijani threats.
"The renewal of a large-scale war is clearly a serious threat to the
economy of not only Armenia but also the EEU member states. So in case
of treating it as a threat, the EEU member states should be interested
in the non-renewal of war. I am confident that in case of a higher
degree of threat, they will seek to influence Azerbaijan, trying all
their best to prevent such hazards to the EEU, at least on the
economic level. And I am sure there is no threat of a large-scale war
at the current stage, though the EEU attention is not drawn to the
Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict as of now. I am sure Azerbaijan sees the
possible aftermath, so there is a boundary it cannot cross. What
Azerbaijan is trying to do now is to resolve a minimal problem," he
noted.
As for Russia's commitments as a security guarantor, the analyst said
he finds that they have more to do with the country's membership in
the Collective Security Treaty Organization. He called for demanding
stronger efforts by allies towards minimizing Azerbaijani tensions
against Armenia through political pressures. "Armenia must make calls
for continuing the talks, and they have to first of address the
maintenance of the minimal security level: snipers' withdrawal from
the border zone and the creation of monitoring groups investigating
border incidents. Before these conditions are fulfilled, Armenia must
stop the negotiation process, and urge the international community,
especially the [OSCE] Minsk Group, to use their entire influence to
hold Azerbaijan back from its aggressive policies," he added.
http://www.tert.am/en/news/2015/01/08/meliq-shahnazarian/1553736