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The Problem of Controllable Fragmentation of Russia and Turkey
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - 07 January 2015, 00:48
NATO is facing complicated issues, and it is not clear yet how they
are going to be resolved. Controversies inside NATO persist.
Afghanistan has shattered the political will of the member states of
the alliance, NATO has not carried out a single military action since
Afghanistan. There are actions by separate states, and most members of
the alliance do not support them. It turns out that a group of NATO
member states or the alliance is capable of military actions with
limited scope.
The developments of Libya demonstrated that the European states are
not capable of actions of significant scope without the U.S.
assistance.
NATO is not ready and is not prone to military intervention in likely
developments in the South Caucasus. Russia continues to play a
deciding role in the security system of the South Caucasus, and the
behavior of other countries, including the states of the region and
major states, depends on it.
France is rather pessimistic about NATO expansion towards Eastern
Europe and is hardly interested in boosting NATO responsibility in the
South Caucasus and other regions. France sees Russia as a key economic
and political partner and does not want to irritate Russia.
France is ready to help Armenia with cooperation with NATO, including
supply of weapons, though upon certain conditions and is reluctant to
cause escalation in the region. Germany has a similar stance.
Russia will use a tactics in respect of NATO-Armenia and EU-Armenia
cooperation that will differ from that of Georgia. Aside from the
states of the West Russia also learned lessons on the processes and
situation in Georgia.
Russia will try to enhance its control over Armenia, first of all
through military presence, and Armenia will be definitely interested
in this. Besides defense, Russia will make efforts to increase its
influence in the spheres of economy and culture. For example, Russia
is jealous about Russia's positions in the post-Soviet states.
Now it is fully understood that Russia sees Armenia as small change in
its games with Turkey and Azerbaijan. Moscow does not see Armenia as a
sovereign state which conducts its own foreign policy, and Russia
considers the foreign minister as its agent. Karabakh does not exist
in Russia's plans as a permanent subject. It is seen as something
interim which has run out of its role and time.
The present and future elites of Armenia are not capable of
understanding this and are marionettes in the hands of Russians.
It is necessary to discuss soberly whether Armenia has a resource
outside government which will allow it being a mini-actor in the
international setting. There is such resource otherwise a lot of other
states would not exist.
NATO is going through a long stage of reforms and understanding of its
own role and mission. NATO is facing the issue of creating new
geopolitics because the former schemes are not working. The Black Sea
and the South Caucasus which are presently seen as defense factors of
geopolitics will soon be seen as hotbeds, or rather an arena for
military and political presence of NATO.
Plans in Eastern Europe, Central Asia and partly in the Near East
become meaningless without the factor of the Black Sea and the South
Caucasus. Soon the North Caucasus will get out of Russia's control.
Therefore, Russia must be replaced by other forces in that region.
Similar processes are underway in Turkey which will be further
fragmented. At present the issue of isolation of Turkey and Russia is
replaced by the issue of controllable fragmentation of these
countries.
Russia is deeply interested in such a phenomenon as the Islamic State
of Iraq and Levant which is often called the Caliphate. It interests
Russia for two reasons: as a likely enemy in the southern direction
and as a means of scaring the countries of the South.
No doubt Russia does not spare effort to figure out the current
situation. The Russian intelligence is playing its game, finding out
what can scare the political government of the country. The Caliphate
could be a key instrument for Russia for large-scale blackmail in the
Caucasus and Central Asia.
Supplying weapons to Syria, Russia has appeared in a dual situation
because the initial concept that Caliphate is the scenario and project
of the United States has failed and is rather ambiguous. Now the U.S.
interests have become consumers of Russian weapon which is used
against the Caliphate, about which some Armenian experts are speaking
so meaninglessly.
The problem is that the Caliphate will soon be destroyed just like the
U.S. former and present partners which, being in the role of designers
and stakeholders, have realized that the project will sooner or later
start working against them, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. This knot will
soon be destroyed or rather undone, and people will return to their
former places.
The Russians are trying to demonstrate to Armenia that new threat has
occurred, namely the Caliphate, but Armenia has responded and sent a
small contingent to Lebanon. One should not forget that unlike Armenia
Caliphate has become a state though it is just a movement, even though
it is transnational. Meanwhile, Armenians are scaring each other.
The key threat is not the Caliphate but the Russian military base in
Gyumri, and this is not something unlikely.
During many years NATO has avoided military actions in the Near East,
which has become a tradition in the alliance. Now NATO is fully
participating in the process against the Caliphate which emerged
against the Shia communities of the east coast of the Mediterranean
Sea, Iran and Iraq, not the Western community.
This is a new world, and it is being implemented without Russia, and
nobody is interested in any form of participation of Russia which is
given an opportunity to provide intelligence data, in other words,
Russia's only resource in the existing situation.
Caliphate is a fully comprehensible threat for the region, and NATO is
the only force which can have key importance in destroying this
phenomenon in the Near East.
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33382#sthash.4lnFtdMM.dpuf
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - 07 January 2015, 00:48
NATO is facing complicated issues, and it is not clear yet how they
are going to be resolved. Controversies inside NATO persist.
Afghanistan has shattered the political will of the member states of
the alliance, NATO has not carried out a single military action since
Afghanistan. There are actions by separate states, and most members of
the alliance do not support them. It turns out that a group of NATO
member states or the alliance is capable of military actions with
limited scope.
The developments of Libya demonstrated that the European states are
not capable of actions of significant scope without the U.S.
assistance.
NATO is not ready and is not prone to military intervention in likely
developments in the South Caucasus. Russia continues to play a
deciding role in the security system of the South Caucasus, and the
behavior of other countries, including the states of the region and
major states, depends on it.
France is rather pessimistic about NATO expansion towards Eastern
Europe and is hardly interested in boosting NATO responsibility in the
South Caucasus and other regions. France sees Russia as a key economic
and political partner and does not want to irritate Russia.
France is ready to help Armenia with cooperation with NATO, including
supply of weapons, though upon certain conditions and is reluctant to
cause escalation in the region. Germany has a similar stance.
Russia will use a tactics in respect of NATO-Armenia and EU-Armenia
cooperation that will differ from that of Georgia. Aside from the
states of the West Russia also learned lessons on the processes and
situation in Georgia.
Russia will try to enhance its control over Armenia, first of all
through military presence, and Armenia will be definitely interested
in this. Besides defense, Russia will make efforts to increase its
influence in the spheres of economy and culture. For example, Russia
is jealous about Russia's positions in the post-Soviet states.
Now it is fully understood that Russia sees Armenia as small change in
its games with Turkey and Azerbaijan. Moscow does not see Armenia as a
sovereign state which conducts its own foreign policy, and Russia
considers the foreign minister as its agent. Karabakh does not exist
in Russia's plans as a permanent subject. It is seen as something
interim which has run out of its role and time.
The present and future elites of Armenia are not capable of
understanding this and are marionettes in the hands of Russians.
It is necessary to discuss soberly whether Armenia has a resource
outside government which will allow it being a mini-actor in the
international setting. There is such resource otherwise a lot of other
states would not exist.
NATO is going through a long stage of reforms and understanding of its
own role and mission. NATO is facing the issue of creating new
geopolitics because the former schemes are not working. The Black Sea
and the South Caucasus which are presently seen as defense factors of
geopolitics will soon be seen as hotbeds, or rather an arena for
military and political presence of NATO.
Plans in Eastern Europe, Central Asia and partly in the Near East
become meaningless without the factor of the Black Sea and the South
Caucasus. Soon the North Caucasus will get out of Russia's control.
Therefore, Russia must be replaced by other forces in that region.
Similar processes are underway in Turkey which will be further
fragmented. At present the issue of isolation of Turkey and Russia is
replaced by the issue of controllable fragmentation of these
countries.
Russia is deeply interested in such a phenomenon as the Islamic State
of Iraq and Levant which is often called the Caliphate. It interests
Russia for two reasons: as a likely enemy in the southern direction
and as a means of scaring the countries of the South.
No doubt Russia does not spare effort to figure out the current
situation. The Russian intelligence is playing its game, finding out
what can scare the political government of the country. The Caliphate
could be a key instrument for Russia for large-scale blackmail in the
Caucasus and Central Asia.
Supplying weapons to Syria, Russia has appeared in a dual situation
because the initial concept that Caliphate is the scenario and project
of the United States has failed and is rather ambiguous. Now the U.S.
interests have become consumers of Russian weapon which is used
against the Caliphate, about which some Armenian experts are speaking
so meaninglessly.
The problem is that the Caliphate will soon be destroyed just like the
U.S. former and present partners which, being in the role of designers
and stakeholders, have realized that the project will sooner or later
start working against them, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. This knot will
soon be destroyed or rather undone, and people will return to their
former places.
The Russians are trying to demonstrate to Armenia that new threat has
occurred, namely the Caliphate, but Armenia has responded and sent a
small contingent to Lebanon. One should not forget that unlike Armenia
Caliphate has become a state though it is just a movement, even though
it is transnational. Meanwhile, Armenians are scaring each other.
The key threat is not the Caliphate but the Russian military base in
Gyumri, and this is not something unlikely.
During many years NATO has avoided military actions in the Near East,
which has become a tradition in the alliance. Now NATO is fully
participating in the process against the Caliphate which emerged
against the Shia communities of the east coast of the Mediterranean
Sea, Iran and Iraq, not the Western community.
This is a new world, and it is being implemented without Russia, and
nobody is interested in any form of participation of Russia which is
given an opportunity to provide intelligence data, in other words,
Russia's only resource in the existing situation.
Caliphate is a fully comprehensible threat for the region, and NATO is
the only force which can have key importance in destroying this
phenomenon in the Near East.
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33382#sthash.4lnFtdMM.dpuf