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Ottawa Citizen, Canada
Jan 11 2015
What's next for Canada's military
Chris Kilford
Published on: January 11, 2015Last Updated: January 11, 2015 7:00 AM EST
When the current mission in Iraq eventually ends it likely won't be
our last in the region.
Then again, making predictions can be a risky business as I found out
in 2006 as the acting director of a new future security analysis team
in National Defence Headquarters. There were about 10 of us in all -
civilian and military, with various backgrounds and academic
qualifications. Our main focus was to figure out where, when and why
the Canadian military might deploy internationally during the next 20
years. By analyzing various possibilities, the idea was to then
recommend what new equipment, people skills, doctrine, etc. the
military would need to meet the challenges envisaged.
As George Savile, Marquess of Halifax once said, "the best
qualification of a prophet is to have a good memory." To this end, the
team pored back over previous military deployments and the causes
leading to them. We also analyzed more contemporary issues ranging
from climate change to demographic trends and along the way discovered
that those in the forecasting industry often got it wrong.
For example, few had imagined the total collapse of the Soviet Union
or that supporting the Afghan mujahideen would have such far-reaching
consequences later on. On the other hand, once up and running, it was
the Middle East and the fringes of the former Soviet Union that
attracted our greatest interest. In the post-1945 period, for example,
Canadian troops had repeatedly deployed to the Middle East for
peacekeeping and combat.
Indeed, when I arrived in Turkey as Canada's defence attaché in the
summer of 2011, our military was busily involved helping rid Libya of
Muammar Gaddafi. Just after I left Ankara in July 2014, others were on
their way to Kuwait or heading to Lithuania for a Baltic air policing
mission. In between, the navy busily patrolled the region on
anti-piracy/anti-terrorism missions and in support of NATO operations
in the Mediterranean and Black Sea. Last month, Canada took command of
Combined Task Force 150, a naval counter-terrorism task force located
in Bahrain.
In the region where I worked there were plenty of other potential
flash-points as well. Turkey was occupying a large portion of Cyprus
after some 40 years. Ethnic Armenian separatists backed by Yerevan had
seized control of the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region in Azerbaijan
in the early 1990s. Today, along the Armenian and Azerbaijani border,
the two sides are dug-in much like it was in Europe during the First
World War. In 2008, Georgia and Russia went to war and in 2014, Russia
annexed Crimea. Furthermore, and much to the annoyance of Georgia,
their breakaway provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia are recognized
as independent countries by a small handful of states but in
particular, Russia. Meanwhile, the spillover from the civil war in
Syria has led to refugee, economic and political challenges for Iraq,
Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey.
As for the rest of the world, there will always be missions that
seemingly come out of the blue from natural disasters to more menacing
affairs.
Given the vagaries of Middle Eastern politics, however, I would
venture that our men and women in uniform will be serving in and
around the region well into the future.
Tensions with Russia will also persist, meaning that NATO will call on
our assistance more and more.
The good news, if there is any, is that Ottawa established a military
operational support hub with a range of support services in Germany in
2009. Moreover, and in what turned out to be a very timely decision,
Canada signed a new memorandum of understanding with Kuwait in May
2014 for a second hub. Both hubs, I suspect, will be far busier than
their proponents ever imagined.
Dr. Chris Kilford (then Colonel Kilford) served as Canada's Defence
Attaché to Turkey from 2011-2014. He recently became a fellow with the
Queen's Centre for International and Defence Policy.
http://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/chris-kilford-whats-next-for-canadas-military
From: A. Papazian
Jan 11 2015
What's next for Canada's military
Chris Kilford
Published on: January 11, 2015Last Updated: January 11, 2015 7:00 AM EST
When the current mission in Iraq eventually ends it likely won't be
our last in the region.
Then again, making predictions can be a risky business as I found out
in 2006 as the acting director of a new future security analysis team
in National Defence Headquarters. There were about 10 of us in all -
civilian and military, with various backgrounds and academic
qualifications. Our main focus was to figure out where, when and why
the Canadian military might deploy internationally during the next 20
years. By analyzing various possibilities, the idea was to then
recommend what new equipment, people skills, doctrine, etc. the
military would need to meet the challenges envisaged.
As George Savile, Marquess of Halifax once said, "the best
qualification of a prophet is to have a good memory." To this end, the
team pored back over previous military deployments and the causes
leading to them. We also analyzed more contemporary issues ranging
from climate change to demographic trends and along the way discovered
that those in the forecasting industry often got it wrong.
For example, few had imagined the total collapse of the Soviet Union
or that supporting the Afghan mujahideen would have such far-reaching
consequences later on. On the other hand, once up and running, it was
the Middle East and the fringes of the former Soviet Union that
attracted our greatest interest. In the post-1945 period, for example,
Canadian troops had repeatedly deployed to the Middle East for
peacekeeping and combat.
Indeed, when I arrived in Turkey as Canada's defence attaché in the
summer of 2011, our military was busily involved helping rid Libya of
Muammar Gaddafi. Just after I left Ankara in July 2014, others were on
their way to Kuwait or heading to Lithuania for a Baltic air policing
mission. In between, the navy busily patrolled the region on
anti-piracy/anti-terrorism missions and in support of NATO operations
in the Mediterranean and Black Sea. Last month, Canada took command of
Combined Task Force 150, a naval counter-terrorism task force located
in Bahrain.
In the region where I worked there were plenty of other potential
flash-points as well. Turkey was occupying a large portion of Cyprus
after some 40 years. Ethnic Armenian separatists backed by Yerevan had
seized control of the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region in Azerbaijan
in the early 1990s. Today, along the Armenian and Azerbaijani border,
the two sides are dug-in much like it was in Europe during the First
World War. In 2008, Georgia and Russia went to war and in 2014, Russia
annexed Crimea. Furthermore, and much to the annoyance of Georgia,
their breakaway provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia are recognized
as independent countries by a small handful of states but in
particular, Russia. Meanwhile, the spillover from the civil war in
Syria has led to refugee, economic and political challenges for Iraq,
Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey.
As for the rest of the world, there will always be missions that
seemingly come out of the blue from natural disasters to more menacing
affairs.
Given the vagaries of Middle Eastern politics, however, I would
venture that our men and women in uniform will be serving in and
around the region well into the future.
Tensions with Russia will also persist, meaning that NATO will call on
our assistance more and more.
The good news, if there is any, is that Ottawa established a military
operational support hub with a range of support services in Germany in
2009. Moreover, and in what turned out to be a very timely decision,
Canada signed a new memorandum of understanding with Kuwait in May
2014 for a second hub. Both hubs, I suspect, will be far busier than
their proponents ever imagined.
Dr. Chris Kilford (then Colonel Kilford) served as Canada's Defence
Attaché to Turkey from 2011-2014. He recently became a fellow with the
Queen's Centre for International and Defence Policy.
http://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/chris-kilford-whats-next-for-canadas-military
From: A. Papazian