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Optimistic scenarios can hardly be expected - economists
12:11 * 11.01.15
The Russian ruble showed depreciation early in January 2015 as
compared with late December 2014, with simultaneous appreciation of
the USD against the Armenian dram.
In an interview with Tert.am, economist Zoya Tadevosyan spoke of
possible developments in Armenia's financial market, especially after
commercial banks resume their work. According to her, a number of
economists forecast "hard times" after the New Year. Economist Artak
Manukyan forecast further AMD depreciation amid economic problems in
Russia and Armenia's uncompetitive economy and consistently decreasing
money transfers in the first three months of the year.
"What can make the Armenian dram appreciate if we have no economy as
such? Nothing can help the Armenian dram stabilize. Our country has no
resources for that so further depreciation should be expected.
Creating real economy is a major preventive measure. The situation
will change after economy starts manufacturing products and exporting.
Exported products enable foreign exchange to enter the country.
Otherwise, the process cannot be prevented," Ms Tadevosyan said.
The Central Bank of Armenia cannot do anything by means of regular
interventions.
"They pegged the exchange the previous months by spending huge
resources. But the Central Bank has no resources now."
With respect to Armenia's economic dependence on Russia, Ms Tadevosyan said.
"This is a grave problem, and we have repeatedly stated that the
current economic policy will deprive Armenia of all the levers. And we
have reached this point."
Economist Artak Manukyan forecasts social problems in the first three
months of 2015.
"In January we are going to have a higher price rise because the
prices for most products that rose due to the AMD depreciation last
December did not go down later. We can say that the unfavorable
factors related to the Eurasian Economic Community are more than
positive ones," he said.
"I do not think we are going to witness a situation similar to that
last month. But there are no optimistic scenarios, especially with oil
prices going down to the historically lowest level. In this respect,
the Russian ruble has stabilized. If we analyze the situation we can
see further AMD depreciation, and I do not see any grounds for an
opposite process."
http://www.tert.am/en/news/2015/01/11/tadevosyan-manukyan/1554513
12:11 * 11.01.15
The Russian ruble showed depreciation early in January 2015 as
compared with late December 2014, with simultaneous appreciation of
the USD against the Armenian dram.
In an interview with Tert.am, economist Zoya Tadevosyan spoke of
possible developments in Armenia's financial market, especially after
commercial banks resume their work. According to her, a number of
economists forecast "hard times" after the New Year. Economist Artak
Manukyan forecast further AMD depreciation amid economic problems in
Russia and Armenia's uncompetitive economy and consistently decreasing
money transfers in the first three months of the year.
"What can make the Armenian dram appreciate if we have no economy as
such? Nothing can help the Armenian dram stabilize. Our country has no
resources for that so further depreciation should be expected.
Creating real economy is a major preventive measure. The situation
will change after economy starts manufacturing products and exporting.
Exported products enable foreign exchange to enter the country.
Otherwise, the process cannot be prevented," Ms Tadevosyan said.
The Central Bank of Armenia cannot do anything by means of regular
interventions.
"They pegged the exchange the previous months by spending huge
resources. But the Central Bank has no resources now."
With respect to Armenia's economic dependence on Russia, Ms Tadevosyan said.
"This is a grave problem, and we have repeatedly stated that the
current economic policy will deprive Armenia of all the levers. And we
have reached this point."
Economist Artak Manukyan forecasts social problems in the first three
months of 2015.
"In January we are going to have a higher price rise because the
prices for most products that rose due to the AMD depreciation last
December did not go down later. We can say that the unfavorable
factors related to the Eurasian Economic Community are more than
positive ones," he said.
"I do not think we are going to witness a situation similar to that
last month. But there are no optimistic scenarios, especially with oil
prices going down to the historically lowest level. In this respect,
the Russian ruble has stabilized. If we analyze the situation we can
see further AMD depreciation, and I do not see any grounds for an
opposite process."
http://www.tert.am/en/news/2015/01/11/tadevosyan-manukyan/1554513