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MOSCOW SET TO DESTROY THREE VALUES OF ARMENIA
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - 12 January 2015, 15:02
NATO's regional policy is being drafted actively and becoming one of
the issues of the alliance. Enlargement of NATO's mission is, in fact,
such a regional policy.
It is not a surprise that some experts note that "NATO's regional
policy" is not a correct definition. In fact, this wording cannot
be found in any NATO document. Nevertheless, the foreign policy of
the leading countries of the West primarily involves their policy in
different regions, i.e. outside the borders of NATO and the EU.
Now the more obvious problem of the region is NATO mission in
Afghanistan, and Central Asia will become a key region of activity
of NATO force in regard to the final decision on Afghanistan. The
prospects of the South Caucasus could be estimated in regard to the
goals and objectives of the alliance.
The leading countries of the United States and Europe are trying to
cut military costs and their military presence in different regions,
the United States is trying to shed responsibility for security in
some regions. The United States has given up on strengthening its
presence in the Black Sea, which was reflected in the attention of
the United States and NATO to the South Caucasus.
It is possible that the Russian press is highly sensitive to the
development of relations of NATO and the EU with Armenia, and
in reality Russia cannot help worrying about this. However, more
pragmatic Russian politicians think that there is no serious concern
unless Armenia seeks for membership to NATO and the EU.
One could understand Armenia's wish to receive security assistance
from NATO and economic assistance from the EU but it is too early to
evaluate this policy because the results will become known later. It
is important to understand not only the goals and interests of Armenia
but also the goals and interests of the Western community relating
to Armenia.
The West understands that Armenia is the partner and ally of Russia's,
plays an important role in the security and protection of the South
Caucasus. The geopolitical situation depends a lot on the stance of
Armenia, and not only in the South Caucasus.
Armenia is interested in economic and political cooperation with Russia
and other CSTO partners. Hardly anyone in Moscow doubts that Armenia
would like to maintain the conditions of relations with Russia and
the West.
Prior to the September 3 disaster Moscow's more pragmatic personalities
are seeing the problem in the following way: "It is possible that
Armenia is convinced that it can continue to conduct that policy
but is it possible provided that Armenia practically fulfilled the
requirement of the European Union on solely the Western vector of
development of relations and refused to enter the Eurasian Union. Now,
despite development of relations with NATO, the only factor of security
of Armenia in real condition remains military cooperation with Russia
and CSTO. It is possible to admit the importance of NATO's role and
stance but the alliance has not developed approaches and actions for
the guarantees of Armenia's security."
In fact, this is true but at the same time it is necessary to take into
account that up to the early 2000s the United States and its partners
in NATO continued to bid on Turkey and its companion Azerbaijan,
trying to remove Azerbaijan from Turkey but did not succeed. This
circumstance has increased the dependence of Armenia on Russia, which
led to the country's vassalization with the help of the political
elite which is devoid of intellect and civil responsibility.
Armenia is facing the issue of promoting its interests in NATO and the
European Union because Armenia's neighbors are conducting an active
policy with the West and supporting it with economic opportunities.
The Western elites are interested in the development of relations with
Azerbaijan and Turkey which have significant economic opportunities
and put forth new initiatives.
At the same time, Turkey and Azerbaijan periodically put forth demands
which are not acceptable for the Western states. Therefore, it is
possible that Armenia is seen as an important element of maintaining
balance, at least in the South Caucasus. However, it would have been
more logical for Armenia to act as a factor of balance of forces
through close cooperation with Russia.
The membership of Armenia to the Eurasian Union was a gift for Turkey
and Azerbaijan, and they now can achieve full neutralization of the
Armenian issue through weak Russia which needs the Turkish-Azerbaijani
support.
Moscow knew well that the interest of NATO and the European Union
in Armenia was mostly determined by close military and political
relations with Russia. However, autonomous decisions by Armenia and
other CSTO members would have been more acceptable to the West.
NATO is trying to see CSTO in such a format when the members of the
organization are more autonomous. Russia cannot consider such a stance
as friendly.
Currently, after the developments of Ukraine, no country of the West
wants to deal with CSTO and wishes this military and political bloc
would not exist at all. CSTO cannot remain in its former situation,
and the West has found out that this organization is incapable,
it is a decorative union which will collapse upon the first serious
conflict. By the way, the Russians fear pushing CSTO into any conflict
because it will reveal deep controversies and absence of unity.
For NATO-Turkey controversies Russians think there is no doubt that
the U.S.-Turkish relations will not return to the past times, and
this does impact NATO-Turkish relations. Turkey is putting forth new
requirements, trying to benefit from the support of the United States
and NATO.
Turks are blaming Russia for not "responding" to some proposals on
coming to terms. However, Turkey has not proposed anything and spoke
about intentions only, and Russia has realized that Turks intend to
demonstrate alternative to the West. Russia waited and did right,
Iran also did so because there were doubts about the "U-turn" in the
Turkish policy from the very beginning.
The United States and Turkey observe some long-term obligations but
this does not rule out emergence of controversies. The impression is
that the patience of the United States and European States is wearing
thin for Turkey's demands. Any regional crisis leads to new Turkish
demands which are not acceptable for the United States, NATO and the
European Union.
Having found itself in a complicated political and economic situation,
Russia hopes to develop relations with Turkey and understands that
Turkey itself has appeared in such a situation, Russia and Turkey are
ready to agree on many issues, and this determines Russia's wish not
to allow the recognition of independence of Nagorno-Karabakh, return
control over NKR to Azerbaijan and deprive Armenia of sovereignty.
In other words, Russia's behavior cannot be described as that of
a partner, it seems like betrayal. Now already nobody will ask the
opinion of the Armenian society on this. The Armenian society has
distinguished itself as a degenerative society, which is due to the
priorities of the Armenian elite.
In other words, Armenia has been taken under care, and there are
three values that Armenia still possesses: sovereignty, Armenian army,
Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. There are some other values, for example,
the network of the Diaspora in the form of the Armenian Church but
this has a secondary role. The Armenian society has reduced its state
to decline and degeneration.
The aligned actions of the West and Russia relating to threats which
occur in the Greater Near East and other regions, especially Turkey,
seem quite exotic and subtle. Nevertheless, Armenia must calculate
its actions in foreign policy more accurately.
However, Russia was reluctant to cooperate with the West over
restraining Turkish expansion. On the contrary, it considers Turkey
as a partner against the intentions of the West. Now Russia and Turkey
have gained a similar status on the international arena. Russians have
realized this very well but this does not mean that the relations of
Russia and Turkey have become partnership to the extent that Russia
would wish.
NATO and the United States are not interested in the participation of
Russia in actions in Central Asia and the Near East. Russia has moved
on to the next stage of isolation. If we leave aside all the possible
statements and arguments, Russia is rather concerned about Armenia's
intentions and the following simple questions interest it considerably.
1. What is Armenia expecting from development of relations with NATO
and the European Union? Are these expectations related to economic
issues more than defense and security issues?
2. What is the arrangement of political and public forces in Armenia
regarding rapprochement with NATO and the EU? What is the attitude
of the political class and society to the idea of the Eurasian Union?
3. Is the new stage of Armenia-Turkey normalization expected, what
new proposals and approaches can there be?
4. How will Iran react to NATO-Armenia rapprochement?
5. Is Armenia confident that it will succeed maintaining close
relations with Russia along development of relations with NATO and
the EU? How can the stance of Armenia on the Eurasian Union change?
6. How does the actual political leadership of Armenia see its
participation in CSTO and the Eurasian Union?
7. How ready is Armenia to sacrifice its own ambitions, as well as
Karabakh, for the sake of maintaining its relations with Russia?
Hence, equal distance of Armenia from Russia and the West is
unacceptable for Russia, the wording "neutral situation of Armenia"
means closer relations between Armenia and the West and cannot favor
Russia. Russia is concerned about Armenia's foreign policy, and Moscow
cannot understand the motives of such behavior.
Russia intends to deprive Armenia of sovereignty and return Karabakh
to the status that existed in the Soviet Union.
Currently NATO is not going to make a lot of efforts to gain new
positions in Eurasia and prefers entering this super region from the
periphery, following the growing problems of Russia and managing the
developments. At the same time, NATO's activity in the South Caucasus
will grow, and there are specific decisions on this.
The South Caucasus has gained new geostrategic and geopolitical
functions when risks and threats are higher, and Russia prefers
expansion in tougher forms.
The South Caucasus may become an arena of a clash between NATO and
Russia, and apparently this is going to happen. The question is how.
Armenia had a chance to avoid appearing in the area of high tension
but made the strategic mistake of September 3, which will be felt in
the destiny of the country.
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33395#sthash.KufpGy6M.dpuf
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - 12 January 2015, 15:02
NATO's regional policy is being drafted actively and becoming one of
the issues of the alliance. Enlargement of NATO's mission is, in fact,
such a regional policy.
It is not a surprise that some experts note that "NATO's regional
policy" is not a correct definition. In fact, this wording cannot
be found in any NATO document. Nevertheless, the foreign policy of
the leading countries of the West primarily involves their policy in
different regions, i.e. outside the borders of NATO and the EU.
Now the more obvious problem of the region is NATO mission in
Afghanistan, and Central Asia will become a key region of activity
of NATO force in regard to the final decision on Afghanistan. The
prospects of the South Caucasus could be estimated in regard to the
goals and objectives of the alliance.
The leading countries of the United States and Europe are trying to
cut military costs and their military presence in different regions,
the United States is trying to shed responsibility for security in
some regions. The United States has given up on strengthening its
presence in the Black Sea, which was reflected in the attention of
the United States and NATO to the South Caucasus.
It is possible that the Russian press is highly sensitive to the
development of relations of NATO and the EU with Armenia, and
in reality Russia cannot help worrying about this. However, more
pragmatic Russian politicians think that there is no serious concern
unless Armenia seeks for membership to NATO and the EU.
One could understand Armenia's wish to receive security assistance
from NATO and economic assistance from the EU but it is too early to
evaluate this policy because the results will become known later. It
is important to understand not only the goals and interests of Armenia
but also the goals and interests of the Western community relating
to Armenia.
The West understands that Armenia is the partner and ally of Russia's,
plays an important role in the security and protection of the South
Caucasus. The geopolitical situation depends a lot on the stance of
Armenia, and not only in the South Caucasus.
Armenia is interested in economic and political cooperation with Russia
and other CSTO partners. Hardly anyone in Moscow doubts that Armenia
would like to maintain the conditions of relations with Russia and
the West.
Prior to the September 3 disaster Moscow's more pragmatic personalities
are seeing the problem in the following way: "It is possible that
Armenia is convinced that it can continue to conduct that policy
but is it possible provided that Armenia practically fulfilled the
requirement of the European Union on solely the Western vector of
development of relations and refused to enter the Eurasian Union. Now,
despite development of relations with NATO, the only factor of security
of Armenia in real condition remains military cooperation with Russia
and CSTO. It is possible to admit the importance of NATO's role and
stance but the alliance has not developed approaches and actions for
the guarantees of Armenia's security."
In fact, this is true but at the same time it is necessary to take into
account that up to the early 2000s the United States and its partners
in NATO continued to bid on Turkey and its companion Azerbaijan,
trying to remove Azerbaijan from Turkey but did not succeed. This
circumstance has increased the dependence of Armenia on Russia, which
led to the country's vassalization with the help of the political
elite which is devoid of intellect and civil responsibility.
Armenia is facing the issue of promoting its interests in NATO and the
European Union because Armenia's neighbors are conducting an active
policy with the West and supporting it with economic opportunities.
The Western elites are interested in the development of relations with
Azerbaijan and Turkey which have significant economic opportunities
and put forth new initiatives.
At the same time, Turkey and Azerbaijan periodically put forth demands
which are not acceptable for the Western states. Therefore, it is
possible that Armenia is seen as an important element of maintaining
balance, at least in the South Caucasus. However, it would have been
more logical for Armenia to act as a factor of balance of forces
through close cooperation with Russia.
The membership of Armenia to the Eurasian Union was a gift for Turkey
and Azerbaijan, and they now can achieve full neutralization of the
Armenian issue through weak Russia which needs the Turkish-Azerbaijani
support.
Moscow knew well that the interest of NATO and the European Union
in Armenia was mostly determined by close military and political
relations with Russia. However, autonomous decisions by Armenia and
other CSTO members would have been more acceptable to the West.
NATO is trying to see CSTO in such a format when the members of the
organization are more autonomous. Russia cannot consider such a stance
as friendly.
Currently, after the developments of Ukraine, no country of the West
wants to deal with CSTO and wishes this military and political bloc
would not exist at all. CSTO cannot remain in its former situation,
and the West has found out that this organization is incapable,
it is a decorative union which will collapse upon the first serious
conflict. By the way, the Russians fear pushing CSTO into any conflict
because it will reveal deep controversies and absence of unity.
For NATO-Turkey controversies Russians think there is no doubt that
the U.S.-Turkish relations will not return to the past times, and
this does impact NATO-Turkish relations. Turkey is putting forth new
requirements, trying to benefit from the support of the United States
and NATO.
Turks are blaming Russia for not "responding" to some proposals on
coming to terms. However, Turkey has not proposed anything and spoke
about intentions only, and Russia has realized that Turks intend to
demonstrate alternative to the West. Russia waited and did right,
Iran also did so because there were doubts about the "U-turn" in the
Turkish policy from the very beginning.
The United States and Turkey observe some long-term obligations but
this does not rule out emergence of controversies. The impression is
that the patience of the United States and European States is wearing
thin for Turkey's demands. Any regional crisis leads to new Turkish
demands which are not acceptable for the United States, NATO and the
European Union.
Having found itself in a complicated political and economic situation,
Russia hopes to develop relations with Turkey and understands that
Turkey itself has appeared in such a situation, Russia and Turkey are
ready to agree on many issues, and this determines Russia's wish not
to allow the recognition of independence of Nagorno-Karabakh, return
control over NKR to Azerbaijan and deprive Armenia of sovereignty.
In other words, Russia's behavior cannot be described as that of
a partner, it seems like betrayal. Now already nobody will ask the
opinion of the Armenian society on this. The Armenian society has
distinguished itself as a degenerative society, which is due to the
priorities of the Armenian elite.
In other words, Armenia has been taken under care, and there are
three values that Armenia still possesses: sovereignty, Armenian army,
Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. There are some other values, for example,
the network of the Diaspora in the form of the Armenian Church but
this has a secondary role. The Armenian society has reduced its state
to decline and degeneration.
The aligned actions of the West and Russia relating to threats which
occur in the Greater Near East and other regions, especially Turkey,
seem quite exotic and subtle. Nevertheless, Armenia must calculate
its actions in foreign policy more accurately.
However, Russia was reluctant to cooperate with the West over
restraining Turkish expansion. On the contrary, it considers Turkey
as a partner against the intentions of the West. Now Russia and Turkey
have gained a similar status on the international arena. Russians have
realized this very well but this does not mean that the relations of
Russia and Turkey have become partnership to the extent that Russia
would wish.
NATO and the United States are not interested in the participation of
Russia in actions in Central Asia and the Near East. Russia has moved
on to the next stage of isolation. If we leave aside all the possible
statements and arguments, Russia is rather concerned about Armenia's
intentions and the following simple questions interest it considerably.
1. What is Armenia expecting from development of relations with NATO
and the European Union? Are these expectations related to economic
issues more than defense and security issues?
2. What is the arrangement of political and public forces in Armenia
regarding rapprochement with NATO and the EU? What is the attitude
of the political class and society to the idea of the Eurasian Union?
3. Is the new stage of Armenia-Turkey normalization expected, what
new proposals and approaches can there be?
4. How will Iran react to NATO-Armenia rapprochement?
5. Is Armenia confident that it will succeed maintaining close
relations with Russia along development of relations with NATO and
the EU? How can the stance of Armenia on the Eurasian Union change?
6. How does the actual political leadership of Armenia see its
participation in CSTO and the Eurasian Union?
7. How ready is Armenia to sacrifice its own ambitions, as well as
Karabakh, for the sake of maintaining its relations with Russia?
Hence, equal distance of Armenia from Russia and the West is
unacceptable for Russia, the wording "neutral situation of Armenia"
means closer relations between Armenia and the West and cannot favor
Russia. Russia is concerned about Armenia's foreign policy, and Moscow
cannot understand the motives of such behavior.
Russia intends to deprive Armenia of sovereignty and return Karabakh
to the status that existed in the Soviet Union.
Currently NATO is not going to make a lot of efforts to gain new
positions in Eurasia and prefers entering this super region from the
periphery, following the growing problems of Russia and managing the
developments. At the same time, NATO's activity in the South Caucasus
will grow, and there are specific decisions on this.
The South Caucasus has gained new geostrategic and geopolitical
functions when risks and threats are higher, and Russia prefers
expansion in tougher forms.
The South Caucasus may become an arena of a clash between NATO and
Russia, and apparently this is going to happen. The question is how.
Armenia had a chance to avoid appearing in the area of high tension
but made the strategic mistake of September 3, which will be felt in
the destiny of the country.
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33395#sthash.KufpGy6M.dpuf