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EURASIAN ARMENIA: 2015 BRINGS FORMAL MEMBERSHIP IN RUSSIAN-LED TRADE BLOC, MECHANISMS STILL VAGUE
ANALYSIS | 12.01.15 | 12:08
http://armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/59689/armenia_eurasian_economic_union_entrance_russia
By NAZIK ARMENAKYAN
ArmeniaNow
Despite the fact that from January 2, 2015 Armenia is formally
considered a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), no one
appears to know by what exact mechanisms this membership will be
implemented and how exactly the citizens of Armenia, its businesses,
importers and exporters will benefit.
Before January 12, in connection with the New Year and Christmas
holidays, customs services, banks and other institutions did not work
either in Armenia or Russia. However, experts say that even after
January 12 the situation at the borders will be "chaotic", because
customs programs have not been introduced and there are no agreements
with Georgia, through which the way from Armenia to Russia lies.
In the press there has been information about the likelihood of the
postponement of the enforcement of EEU customs rules for Armenia
in connection with the fact that a number of issues still remain
unsettled. Such a decision may become a major image loss for Russia,
which has actively insisted on Armenia's joining the trade bloc
despite objections from its other allies.
Apparently, however, such a decision will be made, and already now
everything is being done for Eurasian integration to be forgotten
as far as possible. For example, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan
in his New Year message to the people did not even mention the EEU,
although it seems that entrance into the trade bloc has been a key
political event in Armenia for the year.
Despite the fact that Armenia, like other countries, has completed
all the procedures up until the appointment of members to Eurasian
structure, the union itself is not taken seriously in Russia or
Kazakhstan and Belarus. Most Russian experts do not regard this
alliance as an opportunity for Russia's economic revival either.
Belarus and Kazakhstan have not joined in the Russian embargo against
countries that have imposed sanctions against Moscow. Moreover,
recently President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev during his
visit to Berlin discussed with German Chancellor Angela Merkel the
situation in Ukraine and bilateral relations, but not the relationship
between the EEU and the European Union. And this is despite the fact
that under the EEU Treaty relations with third countries should be
coordinated within the EEU.
No country or structure has yet acknowledged the existence of the EEU.
In particular, the fact that Georgia cannot allow the passage of
cargoes with Eurasian barcodes is connected with this. Official Tbilisi
says that it is ready for continued transit between Armenia and Russia,
but according to the old rules, rather than the Eurasian ones.
January 12 will become a kind of test for the EEU and Armenia's
foreign policy course. Armenia's authorities that have opted for
closer cooperation with Russia and the political forces supporting
them will have to admit that this path does not work and does not
lead to an increase in the welfare of the country's population.
If the finance authorities of Armenia prove unable to check the
Armenian dram rate, inflation will continue to affect the country's
economy and more foreign aid will be needed.
Russia is unlikely to be among the countries to offer this aid
to Armenia as it itself is reeling under economic sanctions and
its national currency is depreciating. On the other hand, Western
structures already saved Armenia from a financial collapse in December.
ANALYSIS | 12.01.15 | 12:08
http://armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/59689/armenia_eurasian_economic_union_entrance_russia
By NAZIK ARMENAKYAN
ArmeniaNow
Despite the fact that from January 2, 2015 Armenia is formally
considered a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), no one
appears to know by what exact mechanisms this membership will be
implemented and how exactly the citizens of Armenia, its businesses,
importers and exporters will benefit.
Before January 12, in connection with the New Year and Christmas
holidays, customs services, banks and other institutions did not work
either in Armenia or Russia. However, experts say that even after
January 12 the situation at the borders will be "chaotic", because
customs programs have not been introduced and there are no agreements
with Georgia, through which the way from Armenia to Russia lies.
In the press there has been information about the likelihood of the
postponement of the enforcement of EEU customs rules for Armenia
in connection with the fact that a number of issues still remain
unsettled. Such a decision may become a major image loss for Russia,
which has actively insisted on Armenia's joining the trade bloc
despite objections from its other allies.
Apparently, however, such a decision will be made, and already now
everything is being done for Eurasian integration to be forgotten
as far as possible. For example, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan
in his New Year message to the people did not even mention the EEU,
although it seems that entrance into the trade bloc has been a key
political event in Armenia for the year.
Despite the fact that Armenia, like other countries, has completed
all the procedures up until the appointment of members to Eurasian
structure, the union itself is not taken seriously in Russia or
Kazakhstan and Belarus. Most Russian experts do not regard this
alliance as an opportunity for Russia's economic revival either.
Belarus and Kazakhstan have not joined in the Russian embargo against
countries that have imposed sanctions against Moscow. Moreover,
recently President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev during his
visit to Berlin discussed with German Chancellor Angela Merkel the
situation in Ukraine and bilateral relations, but not the relationship
between the EEU and the European Union. And this is despite the fact
that under the EEU Treaty relations with third countries should be
coordinated within the EEU.
No country or structure has yet acknowledged the existence of the EEU.
In particular, the fact that Georgia cannot allow the passage of
cargoes with Eurasian barcodes is connected with this. Official Tbilisi
says that it is ready for continued transit between Armenia and Russia,
but according to the old rules, rather than the Eurasian ones.
January 12 will become a kind of test for the EEU and Armenia's
foreign policy course. Armenia's authorities that have opted for
closer cooperation with Russia and the political forces supporting
them will have to admit that this path does not work and does not
lead to an increase in the welfare of the country's population.
If the finance authorities of Armenia prove unable to check the
Armenian dram rate, inflation will continue to affect the country's
economy and more foreign aid will be needed.
Russia is unlikely to be among the countries to offer this aid
to Armenia as it itself is reeling under economic sanctions and
its national currency is depreciating. On the other hand, Western
structures already saved Armenia from a financial collapse in December.