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ALIYEV'S DICTATORSHIP IS THREAT TO REGIONAL AND GLOBAL STABILITY
The Hill, DC
Jan 13 2015
By Vilen Khlgatyan and Armen Sahakyan
After inheriting the half-a-century-old reins of power in 2003 from
his deceased father, Heydar Aliyev, Azerbaijani dictator Ilham Aliyev
has tried to position his country as a reliable producer of energy
and counter-terrorism partner for the West. At the same time he has
pursued rapid militarization, anti-Armenianism, and the consolidation
of a strongman regime.
The United States government annually waives Section 907 of the
Freedom Support Act which would deny direct aid to the Azerbaijani
government. But the West in general has overlooked the anti-democratic
and jingoist nature of Azerbaijan in the post 9-11 world for two
reasons - geography and energy. Located in the Caucasus region,
Azerbaijan borders both Russia and Iran - two countries with which the
West, particularly the United States, has traditionally had tense and
even hostile relations. For years rumors have swirled that Azerbaijan
made its territory available to the U.S. Intelligence Community so
that it could launch some of its operations against Iran and Russia
from there. Moreover, Azerbaijan provided an alternate transit route
to ship supplies to the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF)
in Afghanistan through the Northern Distribution Network (NDN). Such
rumors are not necessarily baseless given Azerbaijan's earlier history
of hosting Al Qaeda training camps within its territory before 9-11
and the use of Afghan and Chechen Mujahedeen against the Republic
of Artsakh during the Karabakh War. The very same terrorists that
the Aliyev senior regime helped to train were among the radicals the
U.S.-led coalition has been fighting against since 2001.
Sitting on a modest supply of natural gas and oil, Azerbaijan played
up the 1990s-era hype surrounding the purported massive amounts of
hydrocarbons in the Caspian Sea basin - an exaggerated quantity later
undermined by subsequent exploration tests. With Western backing, the
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline was built by a BP-led consortium
and put into operation in 2006. In 2010-11 Azerbaijan hit peak oil
and since then has pumped out decreasing volumes of oil, a fact that
has publicly frustrated Aliyev junior.
The American-led shale revolution has not helped Baku's predicament.
Coupled with declining oil production, 2014 saw the end of the ISAF's
mission in Afghanistan and a mild rapprochement with Iran - all of
which further depreciated the geopolitical value of Azerbaijan. 2014
also saw the worst crackdown on democracy, civil society, and human
rights activists since Aliyev came to power. The clampdown culminated
with the raid and closure of the American-financed Radio Free
Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) offices in Baku and the arrest of the
most prominent Azerbaijani investigative reporter, Khadija Ismayilova.
Today, there are close to 100 political prisoners in Azerbaijan and
thousands more fear a similar fate for expressing their oppositionist
views. Ethnic indigenous minorities, such as Lezgin, Avar, and Talysh
people are also repressed. The Republic of Artsakh helps broadcast
a cultural and linguistic Talysh radio channel from Shushi and is a
role model for minority rights to self-determination.
No one should be surprised by these developments. Since 2011, the
regime has feared being toppled by an Arab Spring-style movement.
Western calls for more transparency and rule of law in Azerbaijan have
only added to the paranoia of the regime elite who subscribe to the
myth that the CIA masterminded the Arab Spring protests. In order to
distract ordinary Azerbaijanis from government misrule and rally them
around the flag of fabricated nationalism, Azerbaijan has decided to
raise tensions along the heavily militarized border with the Artsakh
Republic (Nagorno Karabakh Republic). Although representatives of
Azerbaijan, Artsakh and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement in 1994,
civilians and soldiers have continued to die in clashes over the years.
Most recently on November 12th Azerbaijani armed forces shot down
an Artsakh air force helicopter during a flight exercise - the most
aggressive act since the ceasefire that resulted in 3 Armenian deaths.
More deaths have been reported on both sides since the beginning of
this year. A border skirmish that may lead to a full-scale war is a
losing proposition for all sides and stakeholders, including the West.
Artsakh and Armenia have hinted that the BTC pipeline, which lies
just 9 miles from Artsakh's borders at its closest point, is a target.
Azerbaijani officials have signaled that Armenia's Metsamor Nuclear
Power Plant is a military target. There exists the distinct possibility
of nuclear fallout engulfing the Caucasus, Middle East, Central Asia,
and Eastern Europe.
It is in the interests of the West to use their influence and leverage
with the Aliyev regime to make peace, free all political prisoners,
and hold free and fair elections. Failure to comply ought to result
in sanctions such as asset freezes, travel bans, and the suspension
of Western-financed projects in Azerbaijan. Just as RFE/RL served as
a beacon of hope and as a remedy against atomization for millions of
Soviet and Eastern Bloc citizens during the Cold War, it also provided
an alternative for everyday Azerbaijanis from regime propaganda.
Baku's closure of the RFE/RL must not go unanswered. A two-bit
dictatorship cannot overcome Western resolve, just as surely as the
Soviet Union could not and did not.
Khlgatyan is the vice chairman of the Political Developments Research
Center (PDRC). He specializes in the geopolitics of energy and
non-kinetic warfare with an emphasis on the Caucasus. Sahakyan is
the executive director of the Eurasian Research and Analysis (ERA)
Institute (Washington, D.C. branch) and is an analyst of Eurasian
Affairs at PDRC.
http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/229256-aliyevs-dictatorship-is-threat-to-regional-and-global
From: Baghdasarian
The Hill, DC
Jan 13 2015
By Vilen Khlgatyan and Armen Sahakyan
After inheriting the half-a-century-old reins of power in 2003 from
his deceased father, Heydar Aliyev, Azerbaijani dictator Ilham Aliyev
has tried to position his country as a reliable producer of energy
and counter-terrorism partner for the West. At the same time he has
pursued rapid militarization, anti-Armenianism, and the consolidation
of a strongman regime.
The United States government annually waives Section 907 of the
Freedom Support Act which would deny direct aid to the Azerbaijani
government. But the West in general has overlooked the anti-democratic
and jingoist nature of Azerbaijan in the post 9-11 world for two
reasons - geography and energy. Located in the Caucasus region,
Azerbaijan borders both Russia and Iran - two countries with which the
West, particularly the United States, has traditionally had tense and
even hostile relations. For years rumors have swirled that Azerbaijan
made its territory available to the U.S. Intelligence Community so
that it could launch some of its operations against Iran and Russia
from there. Moreover, Azerbaijan provided an alternate transit route
to ship supplies to the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF)
in Afghanistan through the Northern Distribution Network (NDN). Such
rumors are not necessarily baseless given Azerbaijan's earlier history
of hosting Al Qaeda training camps within its territory before 9-11
and the use of Afghan and Chechen Mujahedeen against the Republic
of Artsakh during the Karabakh War. The very same terrorists that
the Aliyev senior regime helped to train were among the radicals the
U.S.-led coalition has been fighting against since 2001.
Sitting on a modest supply of natural gas and oil, Azerbaijan played
up the 1990s-era hype surrounding the purported massive amounts of
hydrocarbons in the Caspian Sea basin - an exaggerated quantity later
undermined by subsequent exploration tests. With Western backing, the
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline was built by a BP-led consortium
and put into operation in 2006. In 2010-11 Azerbaijan hit peak oil
and since then has pumped out decreasing volumes of oil, a fact that
has publicly frustrated Aliyev junior.
The American-led shale revolution has not helped Baku's predicament.
Coupled with declining oil production, 2014 saw the end of the ISAF's
mission in Afghanistan and a mild rapprochement with Iran - all of
which further depreciated the geopolitical value of Azerbaijan. 2014
also saw the worst crackdown on democracy, civil society, and human
rights activists since Aliyev came to power. The clampdown culminated
with the raid and closure of the American-financed Radio Free
Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) offices in Baku and the arrest of the
most prominent Azerbaijani investigative reporter, Khadija Ismayilova.
Today, there are close to 100 political prisoners in Azerbaijan and
thousands more fear a similar fate for expressing their oppositionist
views. Ethnic indigenous minorities, such as Lezgin, Avar, and Talysh
people are also repressed. The Republic of Artsakh helps broadcast
a cultural and linguistic Talysh radio channel from Shushi and is a
role model for minority rights to self-determination.
No one should be surprised by these developments. Since 2011, the
regime has feared being toppled by an Arab Spring-style movement.
Western calls for more transparency and rule of law in Azerbaijan have
only added to the paranoia of the regime elite who subscribe to the
myth that the CIA masterminded the Arab Spring protests. In order to
distract ordinary Azerbaijanis from government misrule and rally them
around the flag of fabricated nationalism, Azerbaijan has decided to
raise tensions along the heavily militarized border with the Artsakh
Republic (Nagorno Karabakh Republic). Although representatives of
Azerbaijan, Artsakh and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement in 1994,
civilians and soldiers have continued to die in clashes over the years.
Most recently on November 12th Azerbaijani armed forces shot down
an Artsakh air force helicopter during a flight exercise - the most
aggressive act since the ceasefire that resulted in 3 Armenian deaths.
More deaths have been reported on both sides since the beginning of
this year. A border skirmish that may lead to a full-scale war is a
losing proposition for all sides and stakeholders, including the West.
Artsakh and Armenia have hinted that the BTC pipeline, which lies
just 9 miles from Artsakh's borders at its closest point, is a target.
Azerbaijani officials have signaled that Armenia's Metsamor Nuclear
Power Plant is a military target. There exists the distinct possibility
of nuclear fallout engulfing the Caucasus, Middle East, Central Asia,
and Eastern Europe.
It is in the interests of the West to use their influence and leverage
with the Aliyev regime to make peace, free all political prisoners,
and hold free and fair elections. Failure to comply ought to result
in sanctions such as asset freezes, travel bans, and the suspension
of Western-financed projects in Azerbaijan. Just as RFE/RL served as
a beacon of hope and as a remedy against atomization for millions of
Soviet and Eastern Bloc citizens during the Cold War, it also provided
an alternative for everyday Azerbaijanis from regime propaganda.
Baku's closure of the RFE/RL must not go unanswered. A two-bit
dictatorship cannot overcome Western resolve, just as surely as the
Soviet Union could not and did not.
Khlgatyan is the vice chairman of the Political Developments Research
Center (PDRC). He specializes in the geopolitics of energy and
non-kinetic warfare with an emphasis on the Caucasus. Sahakyan is
the executive director of the Eurasian Research and Analysis (ERA)
Institute (Washington, D.C. branch) and is an analyst of Eurasian
Affairs at PDRC.
http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/229256-aliyevs-dictatorship-is-threat-to-regional-and-global
From: Baghdasarian