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WILL SERBIA BE ABLE TO SOBER AZERBAIJAN?
Monday, 19 January 2015 17:19
The calendar year of 2015 has come into force, like the
political year. What will it bring to the process of the
Azerbaijani-Karabakh conflict settlement, can we hope for some
progress in the issue's solution, and are there the necessary
prerequisites for this? To answer these questions, we should cast a
retrospective glance at the past year.
It should be recognized that the negotiation process,
which hadn't either been extremely dynamic previously and had been in
a state of chronic slippage, experienced an obvious regression in
2014. We believe that Switzerland, which chaired the OSCE last year,
is less likely to be blamed for the failure of the settlement process.
In early 2014, OSCE Chairman-in-Office, Minister of Foreign Affairs of
Switzerland Didier Burkhalter stated that the Karabakh conflict would
be among the most important priorities of the OSCE. "We are well aware
that progress cannot occur instantly and that no settlement can be
achieved until the parties to the conflict wish it themselves", said
the former head of the OSCE. And we cannot but agree with him. He, as
the OSCE Chairman-in-Office, can be just chided for his complacent
attitude to the authorities of Azerbaijan, which is precisely the
party, which does not seek the settlement.
The situation in the settlement process was really quite
shaky and blurry last year, however, the gross violations of the
ceasefire by Azerbaijan, its repeated acts of sabotage on the border
with Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, which led to human losses,
escalated extremely the situation. These actions, actually, reflect
the policy of the ruling regime in Azerbaijan, which, regardless ofthe
appeals by the co-chair states of the OSCE Minsk Group for a peaceful
resolution of the conflict, continues its militaristic policy that
threatens the whole region. Realizing the extreme danger of the
consequences of such a policy of official Baku, Russia, the USA and
France, as co-chair states of the OSCE Minsk Group, initiated last
year meetings between the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan for
preventing dangerous developments and a new round of hostilities.
To be fair, it should be noted that the efforts of the
mediators allowed, to a certain extent, to defuse the situation, but
just two weeks after the last meeting of Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham Alev
in Paris, the Azerbaijani party downed a helicopter of the NKR Defense
Army, which was carrying out a training flight. The incident with the
helicopter became the culmination of the provocative and hostile
actions of Azerbaijan and, one might say, nullified the situation in
the conflict settlement process. The question whether the negotiation
process can be revived is very difficult, especially given the armed
provocations and sabotages by the Azerbaijani party, which have
recently intensified and even acquired a permanent character. This
question is to be answered by Serbia, which took over from Switzerland
in 2015 and headed the OSCE.
Before taking the position of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office,
Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic stated, "The Nagorno Karabakh
issue will be a priority for the Serbian chairmanship at the OSCE.
Surely, it is yet early to talk about a new format, but we will work
objectively with all parties. I ... will make every effort to reach
the conflict settlement". Attention is drawn to certain restraint by
Dacic, who did not assume any overrated commitments, and his words can
be considered as a "protocol of intents". But, it is also worth
considering his idea of willingness to work with all parties. As we
know, the previous Chairmen-in-Office of the OSCE, in favor of
official Baku, didn't want to change the current deformed format of
negotiations, which lacks the major party - the Nagorno Karabakh
Republic, which distorts the real configuration of the conflict.
In any case, the achievement of the conflict settlement,
noted by the Serbian Minister of Foreign Affairs, will largely depend
on whether the international community and, in particular, the
co-chairing states of the OSCE Minsk Group, will manage to sober the
Azerbaijani authorities and to encourage them to engage in a
constructive dialogue based on objective perception of the post-Soviet
realities. The question is equally topical and difficult, as official
Baku does not display even the slightest desire to move away from its
unrealistic position. According to the recent statements by President
Aliyev, the actions of official Baku convincingly prove Azerbaijan's
refusal to settle the conflict on the principles proposed by the OSCE
Minsk Group Co-Chairmen. Moreover, at the January 10 meeting of the
Government, Aliyev criticized the Minsk Group, accusing it of failure,
without wishing to notice that this failure is a consequence of his
tough and dangerous policy relying on a military force. After all, in
spite of the mediators' proposals, Baku offers to determine the status
of Nagorno Karabakh exclusively within the territorial integrity of
Azerbaijan, which contradicts the concept of settlement and is fraught
with a new war.
To be objective, it should be noted that an important
factor, impacting the Karabakh settlement process, is also the
political situation in the region and in the world. It is obvious that
against the background of the events related to the dangerous
processes in the Middle East, in particular, to the activities of
theIslamic State terrorist organization, as well as to the Ukrainian
crisis and thedeterioration of relations between the West and Russia,
the Karabakh conflict isfalling by the wayside. Despite the complexity
of the geopolitical situation, theNKR, nevertheless, should strengthen
its sovereign statehood and seek theinternational recognition of its
independence in 2015.
Leonid MARTIROSSIAN
Editor-in-Chief of Azat Artsakh newspaper
http://artsakhtert.com/eng/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1673:-will-serbia-be-able-to-sober-azerbaijan&catid=3:all&Itemid=4
Monday, 19 January 2015 17:19
The calendar year of 2015 has come into force, like the
political year. What will it bring to the process of the
Azerbaijani-Karabakh conflict settlement, can we hope for some
progress in the issue's solution, and are there the necessary
prerequisites for this? To answer these questions, we should cast a
retrospective glance at the past year.
It should be recognized that the negotiation process,
which hadn't either been extremely dynamic previously and had been in
a state of chronic slippage, experienced an obvious regression in
2014. We believe that Switzerland, which chaired the OSCE last year,
is less likely to be blamed for the failure of the settlement process.
In early 2014, OSCE Chairman-in-Office, Minister of Foreign Affairs of
Switzerland Didier Burkhalter stated that the Karabakh conflict would
be among the most important priorities of the OSCE. "We are well aware
that progress cannot occur instantly and that no settlement can be
achieved until the parties to the conflict wish it themselves", said
the former head of the OSCE. And we cannot but agree with him. He, as
the OSCE Chairman-in-Office, can be just chided for his complacent
attitude to the authorities of Azerbaijan, which is precisely the
party, which does not seek the settlement.
The situation in the settlement process was really quite
shaky and blurry last year, however, the gross violations of the
ceasefire by Azerbaijan, its repeated acts of sabotage on the border
with Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, which led to human losses,
escalated extremely the situation. These actions, actually, reflect
the policy of the ruling regime in Azerbaijan, which, regardless ofthe
appeals by the co-chair states of the OSCE Minsk Group for a peaceful
resolution of the conflict, continues its militaristic policy that
threatens the whole region. Realizing the extreme danger of the
consequences of such a policy of official Baku, Russia, the USA and
France, as co-chair states of the OSCE Minsk Group, initiated last
year meetings between the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan for
preventing dangerous developments and a new round of hostilities.
To be fair, it should be noted that the efforts of the
mediators allowed, to a certain extent, to defuse the situation, but
just two weeks after the last meeting of Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham Alev
in Paris, the Azerbaijani party downed a helicopter of the NKR Defense
Army, which was carrying out a training flight. The incident with the
helicopter became the culmination of the provocative and hostile
actions of Azerbaijan and, one might say, nullified the situation in
the conflict settlement process. The question whether the negotiation
process can be revived is very difficult, especially given the armed
provocations and sabotages by the Azerbaijani party, which have
recently intensified and even acquired a permanent character. This
question is to be answered by Serbia, which took over from Switzerland
in 2015 and headed the OSCE.
Before taking the position of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office,
Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic stated, "The Nagorno Karabakh
issue will be a priority for the Serbian chairmanship at the OSCE.
Surely, it is yet early to talk about a new format, but we will work
objectively with all parties. I ... will make every effort to reach
the conflict settlement". Attention is drawn to certain restraint by
Dacic, who did not assume any overrated commitments, and his words can
be considered as a "protocol of intents". But, it is also worth
considering his idea of willingness to work with all parties. As we
know, the previous Chairmen-in-Office of the OSCE, in favor of
official Baku, didn't want to change the current deformed format of
negotiations, which lacks the major party - the Nagorno Karabakh
Republic, which distorts the real configuration of the conflict.
In any case, the achievement of the conflict settlement,
noted by the Serbian Minister of Foreign Affairs, will largely depend
on whether the international community and, in particular, the
co-chairing states of the OSCE Minsk Group, will manage to sober the
Azerbaijani authorities and to encourage them to engage in a
constructive dialogue based on objective perception of the post-Soviet
realities. The question is equally topical and difficult, as official
Baku does not display even the slightest desire to move away from its
unrealistic position. According to the recent statements by President
Aliyev, the actions of official Baku convincingly prove Azerbaijan's
refusal to settle the conflict on the principles proposed by the OSCE
Minsk Group Co-Chairmen. Moreover, at the January 10 meeting of the
Government, Aliyev criticized the Minsk Group, accusing it of failure,
without wishing to notice that this failure is a consequence of his
tough and dangerous policy relying on a military force. After all, in
spite of the mediators' proposals, Baku offers to determine the status
of Nagorno Karabakh exclusively within the territorial integrity of
Azerbaijan, which contradicts the concept of settlement and is fraught
with a new war.
To be objective, it should be noted that an important
factor, impacting the Karabakh settlement process, is also the
political situation in the region and in the world. It is obvious that
against the background of the events related to the dangerous
processes in the Middle East, in particular, to the activities of
theIslamic State terrorist organization, as well as to the Ukrainian
crisis and thedeterioration of relations between the West and Russia,
the Karabakh conflict isfalling by the wayside. Despite the complexity
of the geopolitical situation, theNKR, nevertheless, should strengthen
its sovereign statehood and seek theinternational recognition of its
independence in 2015.
Leonid MARTIROSSIAN
Editor-in-Chief of Azat Artsakh newspaper
http://artsakhtert.com/eng/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1673:-will-serbia-be-able-to-sober-azerbaijan&catid=3:all&Itemid=4