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ARMENIA CAN'T COUNT ON RUSSIA ANY MORE
Al Jazeera - Qatar
January 20, 2015 Tuesday 11:35 AM GMT
by Richard Giragosian
Slaying of Armenian family by a Russian soldier spurs intense debate
over Armenia's security relationship with Russia.
For Armenia, its role as a reliable partner and ally of Russia has
never faced any real challenge. Much of this reliance on Russia stems
from essential security and economic concerns.
Armenia's security reliance on Russia is driven by a virtual state
of war with neighbouring Azerbaijan, rooted in the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict, only exacerbated by the absence of "normal" diplomatic
relations and closed border with Turkey. And with the Turkish refusal
to recognise the Armenian genocide, this threat perception is only
magnified.
For small, landlocked Armenia, a strategic alliance with Russia
is generally accepted as essential in the face of such inherent
insecurity. And beyond an imperative of security, Armenia also depends
on Russia as a crucial source of remittances, or money sent home by
large numbers of Armenians living and working in Russia.
Yet, there is a surprisingly intense debate now under way within
Armenia that seriously questions these fundamental pillars of the
Armenian-Russian relationship.
New challenge
More specifically, this new challenge to Armenia's traditional reliance
on Russia is driven by two significant factors: tragedy and timing.
A tragedy first triggered this turnabout when a rogue Russian soldier
killed an entire Armenian family, save for a six-month-old infant
who later died of his stab wounds, in Gyumri, Armenia.
Gyumri is the country's second-largest city and the host of the
Russian military base.
That senseless act of random violence in the early morning hours of
January 12, sparked an immediate and spontaneous outpouring of grief
and mourning.
But the initial shock and grief quickly turned to outrage, as
Russian military officials seemed to take charge of the case with a
heavy-handed disdain and disregard for local sensitivities.
That perception was only deepened when Armenian officials were slow
to respond or react.
It was this mishandling of the tragedy, even more than the murder
itself, that then triggered a series of demonstrations and protests
by local Armenians in Gyumri.
Fearing that the Russian conscript would be moved from his detention
within the Russian base and likely returned to Moscow, local residents
demanded that the self-confessed soldier be turned over to Armenian
authorities.
Calming tensions
For its part, local Armenian officials and the prosecutor general
scurried to calm tensions by first announcing that Armenian
investigators were actively participating in the interrogation of the
soldier, and then, once that did little to appease the protesters,
vowed that the soldier would be tried in Armenia.
Amid the Armenian officials' wrangling over the legal process of the
case, the absence of any higher level Armenian officials, and the
failure of the Armenian president to declare a day of mourning or
even make a statement, only escalated the tension.
And days later, no Armenian official attended the funeral of the
murdered family, thereby triggering a fresh wave of indignant protests
in the city, that later spread to the capital, Yerevan. The protests
soon moved to the Russian consulate in Gyumri before culminating in a
march on the Russian base as protesters broke through a police cordon
to enter the base itself.
Yet, there is a deeper context to this public anger. In fact, that
family is only the latest victim in murders and shootings by Russian
servicemen stationed at the Russian military base.
In 1999, two drunk Russian soldiers opened fire on a local market
in the city, killing two and injuring dozens of others. And in 2013,
two children were killed by unexploded ordnance on an unguarded tank
firing range on the premises of the Russian base.
Bad timing
Against this backdrop, the tragedy has also raised renewed questions
of base security, with outrage that the armed soldier who reportedly
deserted his post triggered no notice or alarm by Russian military
personnel at the base.
Although this tragedy has prompted a new challenge to Armenian-Russian
relations, it is also exacerbated by a second factor, timing.
The timing of this tragedy could not be much worse, for several
reasons. First, in 2013, in what many perceived as Russian pressure
on its so-called "strategic partner", Armenia was forced to scrap its
planned free trade deal with the European Union in favour of joining
the Russian-led Eurasian Union.
Second, a steady supply of arms and advanced weapons systems to
Azerbaijan from Russia has sowed further distrust.
And most recently, the negative impact on the Armenian economy from
western sanctions imposed on Russia, evident in a sudden depreciation
of the Armenian currency and reflected in a steep decline in
remittances, has only revealed the asymmetry and lack of parity in
Armenia's "partnership" with Russia.
It seems clear that this unexpected challenge to Armenia's reliance
on Russia will not dissipate any time soon.
Richard Giragosian is the founding director of the Regional Studies
Centre, an independent think-tank in Yerevan, Armenia.
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2015/01/armenia-can-count-russia-any-mo-201511852934497678.html
From: Baghdasarian
Al Jazeera - Qatar
January 20, 2015 Tuesday 11:35 AM GMT
by Richard Giragosian
Slaying of Armenian family by a Russian soldier spurs intense debate
over Armenia's security relationship with Russia.
For Armenia, its role as a reliable partner and ally of Russia has
never faced any real challenge. Much of this reliance on Russia stems
from essential security and economic concerns.
Armenia's security reliance on Russia is driven by a virtual state
of war with neighbouring Azerbaijan, rooted in the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict, only exacerbated by the absence of "normal" diplomatic
relations and closed border with Turkey. And with the Turkish refusal
to recognise the Armenian genocide, this threat perception is only
magnified.
For small, landlocked Armenia, a strategic alliance with Russia
is generally accepted as essential in the face of such inherent
insecurity. And beyond an imperative of security, Armenia also depends
on Russia as a crucial source of remittances, or money sent home by
large numbers of Armenians living and working in Russia.
Yet, there is a surprisingly intense debate now under way within
Armenia that seriously questions these fundamental pillars of the
Armenian-Russian relationship.
New challenge
More specifically, this new challenge to Armenia's traditional reliance
on Russia is driven by two significant factors: tragedy and timing.
A tragedy first triggered this turnabout when a rogue Russian soldier
killed an entire Armenian family, save for a six-month-old infant
who later died of his stab wounds, in Gyumri, Armenia.
Gyumri is the country's second-largest city and the host of the
Russian military base.
That senseless act of random violence in the early morning hours of
January 12, sparked an immediate and spontaneous outpouring of grief
and mourning.
But the initial shock and grief quickly turned to outrage, as
Russian military officials seemed to take charge of the case with a
heavy-handed disdain and disregard for local sensitivities.
That perception was only deepened when Armenian officials were slow
to respond or react.
It was this mishandling of the tragedy, even more than the murder
itself, that then triggered a series of demonstrations and protests
by local Armenians in Gyumri.
Fearing that the Russian conscript would be moved from his detention
within the Russian base and likely returned to Moscow, local residents
demanded that the self-confessed soldier be turned over to Armenian
authorities.
Calming tensions
For its part, local Armenian officials and the prosecutor general
scurried to calm tensions by first announcing that Armenian
investigators were actively participating in the interrogation of the
soldier, and then, once that did little to appease the protesters,
vowed that the soldier would be tried in Armenia.
Amid the Armenian officials' wrangling over the legal process of the
case, the absence of any higher level Armenian officials, and the
failure of the Armenian president to declare a day of mourning or
even make a statement, only escalated the tension.
And days later, no Armenian official attended the funeral of the
murdered family, thereby triggering a fresh wave of indignant protests
in the city, that later spread to the capital, Yerevan. The protests
soon moved to the Russian consulate in Gyumri before culminating in a
march on the Russian base as protesters broke through a police cordon
to enter the base itself.
Yet, there is a deeper context to this public anger. In fact, that
family is only the latest victim in murders and shootings by Russian
servicemen stationed at the Russian military base.
In 1999, two drunk Russian soldiers opened fire on a local market
in the city, killing two and injuring dozens of others. And in 2013,
two children were killed by unexploded ordnance on an unguarded tank
firing range on the premises of the Russian base.
Bad timing
Against this backdrop, the tragedy has also raised renewed questions
of base security, with outrage that the armed soldier who reportedly
deserted his post triggered no notice or alarm by Russian military
personnel at the base.
Although this tragedy has prompted a new challenge to Armenian-Russian
relations, it is also exacerbated by a second factor, timing.
The timing of this tragedy could not be much worse, for several
reasons. First, in 2013, in what many perceived as Russian pressure
on its so-called "strategic partner", Armenia was forced to scrap its
planned free trade deal with the European Union in favour of joining
the Russian-led Eurasian Union.
Second, a steady supply of arms and advanced weapons systems to
Azerbaijan from Russia has sowed further distrust.
And most recently, the negative impact on the Armenian economy from
western sanctions imposed on Russia, evident in a sudden depreciation
of the Armenian currency and reflected in a steep decline in
remittances, has only revealed the asymmetry and lack of parity in
Armenia's "partnership" with Russia.
It seems clear that this unexpected challenge to Armenia's reliance
on Russia will not dissipate any time soon.
Richard Giragosian is the founding director of the Regional Studies
Centre, an independent think-tank in Yerevan, Armenia.
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2015/01/armenia-can-count-russia-any-mo-201511852934497678.html
From: Baghdasarian