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Armenia And Azerbaijan Feel The Effects Of The Ukraine Standoff

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  • Armenia And Azerbaijan Feel The Effects Of The Ukraine Standoff

    ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE UKRAINE STANDOFF

    EurActiv, EU
    Jan 23 2015

    The standoff between Russia and the West over Ukraine has given
    Azerbaijan more clout as Armenia's has decreased, writes Stratfor,
    the Texas-based global intelligence company.

    Prior to the conflict in Ukraine, Russia was in a very strong position
    in the Caucasus region, which includes Armenia, Azerbaijan and
    Georgia. Russia's defeat of Georgia in the August 2008 war countered
    Tbilisi's efforts to join NATO, and Moscow expanded its military
    presence in the breakaway territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

    Armenia, a longtime ally of Russia and the site of the Russian
    102nd Military Base in Gyumri, had strengthened ties with Moscow
    in the security and economic spheres. Azerbaijan maintained a more
    independent and diversified foreign policy position because of its
    sizable energy resources and strategic location on the Caspian Sea.

    However, Russia's military presence in the region and its alliance with
    Armenia effectively kept Baku in check, particularly since Russia is
    Armenia's security guarantor in its ongoing conflict with Azerbaijan
    over the breakaway territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, which Azerbaijan
    lost in its 1988-1994 war with Armenia.

    After the uprising against former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich
    in February 2014, however, Russia's strategic position took a massive
    hit. Replacing Yanukovich was a pro-Western government that prioritized
    strengthening ties with the European Union and United States. Given
    Ukraine's existential importance to Russia, Moscow responded by
    annexing Crimea and backing a pro-Russian separatist movement in
    eastern Ukraine. Although these moves have created serious challenges
    for the Ukrainian government, they have also isolated Moscow from
    the West, sparking EU and U.S. sanctions against Russia and bringing
    relations to their lowest point since the end of the Cold War. This
    has also coincided with a drastic fall in global oil prices, which
    has seriously weakened Russia's economy and limited Moscow's room to
    maneuver on the foreign policy front.

    The evolution of the standoff between Russia and the West has thus
    had ripple effects throughout Eurasia, with each country in the former
    Soviet periphery having to re-evaluate its position. In this context,
    Azerbaijan is a particularly important country because Baku had
    previously maintained a balanced position between the two sides and
    because the country's energy resources could play a pivotal role in
    the standoff. The Europeans have ardently courted Azerbaijan -- along
    with Turkmenistan -- as they seek to diversify away from Russian energy
    supplies via the Southern Corridor. This has considerably strengthened
    Baku's strategic position, as demonstrated by a 21 January meeting
    between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Azerbaijani President
    Ilham Aliyev in Berlin. Merkel praised the important role Azerbaijan
    plays in "ensuring the energy security of Europe," while downplaying
    the human rights issue that normally accompanies European interactions
    with Aliyev.

    Azerbaijan's new importance has increased its leverage over Russia,
    a development that could explain the shift in the Nagorno-Karabakh
    theater during the past year. Violence in the region has escalated
    since the Ukraine crisis broke out, including a sharp spike in
    cross-border casualties in August 2014 and the downing of an Armenian
    helicopter by Azerbaijani forces in November. This appears to be a
    product of a renewed assertiveness by Azerbaijan, which may no longer
    feel as threatened by an Armenian -- and, by extension, Russian --
    reprisal as it once did. This could also explain why Armenia has
    so far been subdued and cautious in responding to acts such as the
    helicopter downing; Yerevan knows that Russia's focus is still very
    concentrated on the Ukrainian theater.

    That said, the uptick in violence does not mean that a return to
    full-scale military conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia is
    looming. Russia still retains its military presence in Armenia, and
    Azerbaijan knows it cannot win a direct military confrontation with
    Russia, even considering Moscow's current political and economic
    constraints. Instead, Baku has been testing the waters with a more
    limited engagement along the line of contact and with diplomatic
    maneuvering with key players like the European Union, the United States
    and Turkey. This strategy demonstrates Azerbaijan's leverage to all
    parties involved and shows its ability to avoid making a commitment
    to any single country in what is still a very dynamic environment.

    Armenia, meanwhile, has grown closer to Russia. It joined the
    Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union at the start of 2015, a time of
    serious economic decline in Russia. Yerevan had political motivations
    for joining the bloc; it knew Armenia would be isolated and vulnerable
    without Moscow's political and security backing.

    Though the European Union has attempted to woo Armenia into its
    camp, Yerevan has so far rebuffed the West, choosing to forego an
    EU association and free trade agreement in favor of Eurasian Union
    membership. This strategy poses considerable risks for Armenia. Its
    economy is now closely tied to Russia's, and some domestic political
    elements oppose further integration with Russia, but the Armenian
    government sees closer cooperation with Russia as the best option in
    the current environment.

    The standoff between Russia and the West over Ukraine has given
    Azerbaijan more clout as Armenia's has decreased, yet both countries
    remain significantly constrained by larger and more powerful forces.

    Still, their positions in the ongoing Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and
    their broader ties with Moscow and the West will play an important,
    and perhaps pivotal, role as the standoff continues.

    Stratfor

    http://www.euractiv.com/sections/europes-east/armenia-and-azerbaijan-feel-effects-ukraine-standoff-311532

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