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THE REASONS BEHIND AZERBAIJAN'S ATTEMPTS TO ESCALATE THE SITUATION AT ARMENIA BORDER
14:35, 26 Jan 2015
Siranush Ghazanchyan
Azerbaijan's attempts to escalate the situation at the Armenian
border and to create a new reality in the region were all predictable,
political scientist Hrant Melik-Shahnazaryan told a press conference
today. According to him, Azerbaijan has as many as 30 reasons for
it, of which three are of greater importance. The first one is
linked to the 100th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide and the
Turkish-Azerbaijani cooperation within this framework.
"Obviously, there is an agreement between the two countries to work
jointly to divert the attention of the international community from
the Genocide centennial. Indeed, the tension at the border is a
proper occasion to have the attention of the international community
focused on the matter, and thus upstage the Armenian Genocide issue
as a political factor in the South Caucasus," Melik-Shahnazaryan said.
The second reason is Armenia's membership in the Eurasian Economic
Union (EEU), which has changed the geopolitical situation in the
region from January 1st. "Azerbaijan is well aware that the EEU
will become a rather serious factor for Armenia after it becomes
fully operational. However, as the EEU is still in the process of
disagreements and is unable to clearly protect its economic interests
and address all challenges, Azerbaijan is trying to demonstrate
that borders of an EEU member state can be under permanent threat
of shelling."
The third factor, according to the political scientist, is that
for three years now Azerbaijan has been the "seller of peace" in
the region.
"Russia, the US and the EU (in the face of France) are all interested
in seeing a stable and predictable South Caucasus. Azerbaijan, in turn,
is trying to make them pay for peace, i.e. earn certain dividends by
escalating the situation with a view of gaining something instead,"
the political scientist said.
According to him, Azerbaijan has this opportunity as far as there
are no international restraining mechanisms and as long as it is
confident the Armenian side will not launch an assault. "This is
where Azerbaijan is mistaken," Levon Melik Shahnazaryan said, adding
that he does not exclude an attack by the Armenian side, referring
to earlier statements by Armenian officials.
http://www.armradio.am/en/2015/01/26/the-reasons-behind-azerbaijans-attempts-to-escalate-the-situation-at-armenia-border/
14:35, 26 Jan 2015
Siranush Ghazanchyan
Azerbaijan's attempts to escalate the situation at the Armenian
border and to create a new reality in the region were all predictable,
political scientist Hrant Melik-Shahnazaryan told a press conference
today. According to him, Azerbaijan has as many as 30 reasons for
it, of which three are of greater importance. The first one is
linked to the 100th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide and the
Turkish-Azerbaijani cooperation within this framework.
"Obviously, there is an agreement between the two countries to work
jointly to divert the attention of the international community from
the Genocide centennial. Indeed, the tension at the border is a
proper occasion to have the attention of the international community
focused on the matter, and thus upstage the Armenian Genocide issue
as a political factor in the South Caucasus," Melik-Shahnazaryan said.
The second reason is Armenia's membership in the Eurasian Economic
Union (EEU), which has changed the geopolitical situation in the
region from January 1st. "Azerbaijan is well aware that the EEU
will become a rather serious factor for Armenia after it becomes
fully operational. However, as the EEU is still in the process of
disagreements and is unable to clearly protect its economic interests
and address all challenges, Azerbaijan is trying to demonstrate
that borders of an EEU member state can be under permanent threat
of shelling."
The third factor, according to the political scientist, is that
for three years now Azerbaijan has been the "seller of peace" in
the region.
"Russia, the US and the EU (in the face of France) are all interested
in seeing a stable and predictable South Caucasus. Azerbaijan, in turn,
is trying to make them pay for peace, i.e. earn certain dividends by
escalating the situation with a view of gaining something instead,"
the political scientist said.
According to him, Azerbaijan has this opportunity as far as there
are no international restraining mechanisms and as long as it is
confident the Armenian side will not launch an assault. "This is
where Azerbaijan is mistaken," Levon Melik Shahnazaryan said, adding
that he does not exclude an attack by the Armenian side, referring
to earlier statements by Armenian officials.
http://www.armradio.am/en/2015/01/26/the-reasons-behind-azerbaijans-attempts-to-escalate-the-situation-at-armenia-border/