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RUSSIA AND REGION: MOSCOW FLOATS IDEAS ON ENSURING RAILROAD LINK WITH ARMENIA VIA GEORGIA
ANALYSIS | 02.03.15 | 10:09
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
Some Russian media in recent days and weeks have been publishing
analytical forecasts regarding how Russia, by introducing troops
into Georgia, will try to establish a direct link with Armenia. In
particular, this is what an article that recently appeared in Lenta.ru,
a web portal standing close to the Kremlin, says. Many believe this
article is a sort of "probe" to test the situation.
The article notes that Russia could take advantage of the problems
of ethnic minorities in Georgia, in particular, Ossetians and the
Kabardian peoples to send troops for their "protection" as Russian
citizens (many of them have received Russian passports) and open a
land route to Armenia. Many residents of Georgia's Armenian-populated
region of Javakheti also have Russian passports.
Several factors show that such a scenario is quit real. Firstly,
Russia has the experience of "protecting its citizens" in the Crimea,
Abkhazia, South Ossetia and in Donbass, and Georgia is not the
most powerful opponent for Russia. Secondly, the current Georgian
leadership, which is controlled by ex-prime minister, leader of the
Georgian Dream party Bidzina Ivanishvili from behind the scenes, is
openly called proteges of Moscow. Despite the fact that the Georgian
leadership still cannot overcome the powerful pro-Western public
opinion, it is obvious that at the right time it may open the way
for Russia in Georgia.
Last week saw another meeting at the level of deputy ministers of
Georgia and Russia in Prague. Zurab Abashidze, who represents Georgia,
said after the meeting that Georgia is ready for improving relations
with Russia if the border between the two states is controlled by
a Swiss company. (The agreement on this was signed in 2009, when
Georgia agreed to Russia's entry into the World Trade Organization).
However, the Russian representative, Grigoriy Karasin, said that
discussed was the issue of opening the Abkhazian railway. The Georgian
Foreign Ministry denied this information, however, the events in
Georgia itself indicated that this was likely true.
Georgia is going to privatize and sell a 25-percent stake in the
railway, and as the most likely buyer it calls Russia. The Russian
company, Rosneft, recently bought a majority stake of the port of
Poti and there are no obstacles to buying the railway, in particular,
its Abkhazian section.
In Georgia, this turn of events may cause a new political turmoil,
because the opening of the road with Abkhazia will require Tbilisi's
rejection of rights to its former regions. In particular, there
are already talks about the probability of early elections and
that Ivanishvili's party may be removed from power. The question is
whether Ivanishvili will manage to make the deal with Russia before
the elections.
In Armenia, the opening of the Abkhazian railway from a purely economic
point of view is seen as a positive development - it will provide a
cheap and safe way to Russia. However, from the political point of view
the opening of the railroad will mark the return of Georgia, and with
it of the entire South Caucasus, to the borders of the Russian Empire.
http://armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/61051/armenia_russia_caucasus_troops_georgia
From: Baghdasarian
ANALYSIS | 02.03.15 | 10:09
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
Some Russian media in recent days and weeks have been publishing
analytical forecasts regarding how Russia, by introducing troops
into Georgia, will try to establish a direct link with Armenia. In
particular, this is what an article that recently appeared in Lenta.ru,
a web portal standing close to the Kremlin, says. Many believe this
article is a sort of "probe" to test the situation.
The article notes that Russia could take advantage of the problems
of ethnic minorities in Georgia, in particular, Ossetians and the
Kabardian peoples to send troops for their "protection" as Russian
citizens (many of them have received Russian passports) and open a
land route to Armenia. Many residents of Georgia's Armenian-populated
region of Javakheti also have Russian passports.
Several factors show that such a scenario is quit real. Firstly,
Russia has the experience of "protecting its citizens" in the Crimea,
Abkhazia, South Ossetia and in Donbass, and Georgia is not the
most powerful opponent for Russia. Secondly, the current Georgian
leadership, which is controlled by ex-prime minister, leader of the
Georgian Dream party Bidzina Ivanishvili from behind the scenes, is
openly called proteges of Moscow. Despite the fact that the Georgian
leadership still cannot overcome the powerful pro-Western public
opinion, it is obvious that at the right time it may open the way
for Russia in Georgia.
Last week saw another meeting at the level of deputy ministers of
Georgia and Russia in Prague. Zurab Abashidze, who represents Georgia,
said after the meeting that Georgia is ready for improving relations
with Russia if the border between the two states is controlled by
a Swiss company. (The agreement on this was signed in 2009, when
Georgia agreed to Russia's entry into the World Trade Organization).
However, the Russian representative, Grigoriy Karasin, said that
discussed was the issue of opening the Abkhazian railway. The Georgian
Foreign Ministry denied this information, however, the events in
Georgia itself indicated that this was likely true.
Georgia is going to privatize and sell a 25-percent stake in the
railway, and as the most likely buyer it calls Russia. The Russian
company, Rosneft, recently bought a majority stake of the port of
Poti and there are no obstacles to buying the railway, in particular,
its Abkhazian section.
In Georgia, this turn of events may cause a new political turmoil,
because the opening of the road with Abkhazia will require Tbilisi's
rejection of rights to its former regions. In particular, there
are already talks about the probability of early elections and
that Ivanishvili's party may be removed from power. The question is
whether Ivanishvili will manage to make the deal with Russia before
the elections.
In Armenia, the opening of the Abkhazian railway from a purely economic
point of view is seen as a positive development - it will provide a
cheap and safe way to Russia. However, from the political point of view
the opening of the railroad will mark the return of Georgia, and with
it of the entire South Caucasus, to the borders of the Russian Empire.
http://armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/61051/armenia_russia_caucasus_troops_georgia
From: Baghdasarian