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JANUARY STATS: FIGURES FOR ARMENIAN EXPORTS TO RUSSIA, GEORGIA REVEAL PROBLEMS IN EEU REGULATIONS
ANALYSIS | 04.03.15 | 10:33
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
The recently published detailed statistics on Armenia's foreign trade
turnover in January 2015 may be an indication of new fundamental
trends in the Armenian economy as well as lingering problems with the
new economic grouping that Armenia signed up to from the beginning
of this year.
As it follows from the data of the National Statistical Service,
in January of this year the trade turnover between Armenia and a
number of European countries has increased significantly, while trade
with countries that are members of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU)
and the Commonwealth of Independent States has reduced.
Overall, Armenia's foreign trade turnover decreased by 30 percent.
But, as it turned out, exports to Russia decreased by 99.9 percent. In
other words, after Armenia's entry into the EEU on January 2, Armenia
practically ceased to export to Russia.
Economists still cannot explain this fact. It is believed that
the actual export to Russia continues, but there are problems
with registration. Apparently, Russia has not managed to reach an
agreement with Georgia on the recognition of the Eurasian barcodes
and on duty-free transit of goods from Armenia to Russia. Experts say
it is possible that now goods from Armenia that are sent to Russia
are registered as exports to Georgia, and only from there they are
registered as export to Russia.
What substantiates this version is that in January exports from Armenia
to Georgia increased 3.4-fold. This shows that Georgia is still an
obstacle to the Eurasian integration of Armenia. Tbilisi does not
refuse to implement the Russian-Armenian transit, but it does not
want to draw it up as "Eurasian". The Eurasian Union has not been
recognized in the world as an operating economic bloc, and European
countries still refuse to make legal transactions with the EEU.
At the same time, according to the statistics, in January Armenia's
exports to France increased by 62.8 percent, to Greece - 17 times,
to Spain - 42.4 times, to China - by 44.6 percent, to Japan - by 52.6
percent, to Iraq - by 12.6 percent.
Experts already characterize this as a change in the economic
orientation of Armenia, which is getting more associated with Europe
and Asia than Russia.
As the main reason for the economic turmoil in Armenia, international
financial institutions cite Armenia's extremely high dependence on
Russia. According to international financial institutions, there
are several levels of dependence - this is energy dependence and
the fact that Russia is one of the key markets for Armenia. But most
importantly it is the heavy dependence of Armenia's consumer market
on private remittances sent from Russia.
Judging from the statistics of January, Armenia's dependence on the
Russian export market has declined considerably. As for transfers,
there is still no information about the January figures. However, by
the end of 2014 the volume of transfers was steadily declining. This
is due to the devaluation of the Russian ruble and the decrease in
the number of those who want to go to Russia for migrant work.
Armenia's energy dependence on Russia remains nearly at the level of
100 percent. Moreover, in Armenia there is a talk about the likelihood
of increased tariffs for natural gas and electricity, whose production
and distribution is carried out by Russian state-owned companies.
The Armenian government, despite the approval of the sale of the
Vorotan hydropower cascade to an American firm has not yet signed the
final agreement. This could lead to reduced dependence on Russian
state-owned corporations. And many are waiting for this decision
as a signal about the government's intention to really diversify
the economy.
But these issues do not become subjects for debate in the parliament,
which is busy with solving fragmented tasks.
http://armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/61130/armenia_statistical_data_january_economy
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
ANALYSIS | 04.03.15 | 10:33
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
The recently published detailed statistics on Armenia's foreign trade
turnover in January 2015 may be an indication of new fundamental
trends in the Armenian economy as well as lingering problems with the
new economic grouping that Armenia signed up to from the beginning
of this year.
As it follows from the data of the National Statistical Service,
in January of this year the trade turnover between Armenia and a
number of European countries has increased significantly, while trade
with countries that are members of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU)
and the Commonwealth of Independent States has reduced.
Overall, Armenia's foreign trade turnover decreased by 30 percent.
But, as it turned out, exports to Russia decreased by 99.9 percent. In
other words, after Armenia's entry into the EEU on January 2, Armenia
practically ceased to export to Russia.
Economists still cannot explain this fact. It is believed that
the actual export to Russia continues, but there are problems
with registration. Apparently, Russia has not managed to reach an
agreement with Georgia on the recognition of the Eurasian barcodes
and on duty-free transit of goods from Armenia to Russia. Experts say
it is possible that now goods from Armenia that are sent to Russia
are registered as exports to Georgia, and only from there they are
registered as export to Russia.
What substantiates this version is that in January exports from Armenia
to Georgia increased 3.4-fold. This shows that Georgia is still an
obstacle to the Eurasian integration of Armenia. Tbilisi does not
refuse to implement the Russian-Armenian transit, but it does not
want to draw it up as "Eurasian". The Eurasian Union has not been
recognized in the world as an operating economic bloc, and European
countries still refuse to make legal transactions with the EEU.
At the same time, according to the statistics, in January Armenia's
exports to France increased by 62.8 percent, to Greece - 17 times,
to Spain - 42.4 times, to China - by 44.6 percent, to Japan - by 52.6
percent, to Iraq - by 12.6 percent.
Experts already characterize this as a change in the economic
orientation of Armenia, which is getting more associated with Europe
and Asia than Russia.
As the main reason for the economic turmoil in Armenia, international
financial institutions cite Armenia's extremely high dependence on
Russia. According to international financial institutions, there
are several levels of dependence - this is energy dependence and
the fact that Russia is one of the key markets for Armenia. But most
importantly it is the heavy dependence of Armenia's consumer market
on private remittances sent from Russia.
Judging from the statistics of January, Armenia's dependence on the
Russian export market has declined considerably. As for transfers,
there is still no information about the January figures. However, by
the end of 2014 the volume of transfers was steadily declining. This
is due to the devaluation of the Russian ruble and the decrease in
the number of those who want to go to Russia for migrant work.
Armenia's energy dependence on Russia remains nearly at the level of
100 percent. Moreover, in Armenia there is a talk about the likelihood
of increased tariffs for natural gas and electricity, whose production
and distribution is carried out by Russian state-owned companies.
The Armenian government, despite the approval of the sale of the
Vorotan hydropower cascade to an American firm has not yet signed the
final agreement. This could lead to reduced dependence on Russian
state-owned corporations. And many are waiting for this decision
as a signal about the government's intention to really diversify
the economy.
But these issues do not become subjects for debate in the parliament,
which is busy with solving fragmented tasks.
http://armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/61130/armenia_statistical_data_january_economy
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress