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ANALYSIS: NO MAJOR OPPOSITION TO SARGSYAN POWER SEEN IN POST-TSARUKYAN REALITY
ANALYSIS | 09.03.15 | 10:12
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
RELATED NEWS
Prosperous Armenia 2.0: Post-Tsarukyan PAP declares itself opposition
Armenian analysts are trying to find an answer to the question of
who will fill the niche in domestic politics that is now vacant
after Gagik Tsarukyan quit the post of Prosperous Armenia Party
(PAP) leader and announced his retirement from politics. Despite its
ideological amorphousness the party led by Tsarukyan managed to gather
around itself opposition forces and civil initiatives protesting some
government policies.
The PAP backed the struggle of some social groups for their rights,
funded a number of opposition media, formed an alliance with a number
of opposition parties, including the Armenian National Congress (ANC)
and Heritage. At the same time, the PAP never called itself opposition,
positioning itself as "alternative" or "non-government".
Many observers believe, however, that had the PAP been a real force
capable of consolidating protests masses, its members, partners and
allies from social movements would have taken to the streets demanding
an end to the persecutions against the PAP leader that began after
President Serzh Sargsyan declared on February 12 that Tsarukyan was
"evil" and had to be ousted from politics. The absence of such protests
led analysts to conclude that an amorphous party devoid of ideology
that does not even call itself opposition is not in demand in Armenia.
The leaders of the ANC and Heritage, Levon Ter-Petrosyan and Raffi
Hovannisian, have already stated that the 'non-governing troika'
does not exist. Members of the PAP are leaving the party en masse -
ex-Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian, who was elected to parliament
as number of the PAP list also announced his quitting the PAP recently.
Employees are dismissed from media financed by Tsarukyan, including
from Kentron TV. Tsarukyan himself said that he will be "building
churches, schools and working for the good of the people." That is, a
huge party that declared about 400,000 members has suddenly evaporated,
leaving a small "sediment".
Many MPs from the PAP, who renounced membership in the party, did not
give up their parliamentary mandates. According to experts, their
votes are likely to join the majority controlled by the Republican
Party of Armenia (RPA) led by President Sargsyan. The RPA starts
the procedure of a constitutional reform to approve which it needs
a constitutional majority in parliament (now the party has only a
simple majority). The constitutional majority for the reform can be
provided by the MPs leaving the PAP.
Armenia will have parliamentary elections in 2017. If the
constitutional reform being advocate by the current administration
takes place, then there will be no more presidential elections in
2018 when Sargsyan's second and final presidential term ends. The
Parliament elected in 2017 and its majority will become "collective
President" and real and legitimate power in the country.
The constitutional reform is likely to take place already this year
and no opposition party capable of vying for a parliament majority
is likely to emerge in Armenia before 2017. That's why experts say
that the RPA and its leader Sargsyan have already secured their power
beyond 2017-18.
http://armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/61225/armenia_politics_opposition_gagik_tsarukyan
From: Baghdasarian
ANALYSIS | 09.03.15 | 10:12
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
RELATED NEWS
Prosperous Armenia 2.0: Post-Tsarukyan PAP declares itself opposition
Armenian analysts are trying to find an answer to the question of
who will fill the niche in domestic politics that is now vacant
after Gagik Tsarukyan quit the post of Prosperous Armenia Party
(PAP) leader and announced his retirement from politics. Despite its
ideological amorphousness the party led by Tsarukyan managed to gather
around itself opposition forces and civil initiatives protesting some
government policies.
The PAP backed the struggle of some social groups for their rights,
funded a number of opposition media, formed an alliance with a number
of opposition parties, including the Armenian National Congress (ANC)
and Heritage. At the same time, the PAP never called itself opposition,
positioning itself as "alternative" or "non-government".
Many observers believe, however, that had the PAP been a real force
capable of consolidating protests masses, its members, partners and
allies from social movements would have taken to the streets demanding
an end to the persecutions against the PAP leader that began after
President Serzh Sargsyan declared on February 12 that Tsarukyan was
"evil" and had to be ousted from politics. The absence of such protests
led analysts to conclude that an amorphous party devoid of ideology
that does not even call itself opposition is not in demand in Armenia.
The leaders of the ANC and Heritage, Levon Ter-Petrosyan and Raffi
Hovannisian, have already stated that the 'non-governing troika'
does not exist. Members of the PAP are leaving the party en masse -
ex-Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian, who was elected to parliament
as number of the PAP list also announced his quitting the PAP recently.
Employees are dismissed from media financed by Tsarukyan, including
from Kentron TV. Tsarukyan himself said that he will be "building
churches, schools and working for the good of the people." That is, a
huge party that declared about 400,000 members has suddenly evaporated,
leaving a small "sediment".
Many MPs from the PAP, who renounced membership in the party, did not
give up their parliamentary mandates. According to experts, their
votes are likely to join the majority controlled by the Republican
Party of Armenia (RPA) led by President Sargsyan. The RPA starts
the procedure of a constitutional reform to approve which it needs
a constitutional majority in parliament (now the party has only a
simple majority). The constitutional majority for the reform can be
provided by the MPs leaving the PAP.
Armenia will have parliamentary elections in 2017. If the
constitutional reform being advocate by the current administration
takes place, then there will be no more presidential elections in
2018 when Sargsyan's second and final presidential term ends. The
Parliament elected in 2017 and its majority will become "collective
President" and real and legitimate power in the country.
The constitutional reform is likely to take place already this year
and no opposition party capable of vying for a parliament majority
is likely to emerge in Armenia before 2017. That's why experts say
that the RPA and its leader Sargsyan have already secured their power
beyond 2017-18.
http://armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/61225/armenia_politics_opposition_gagik_tsarukyan
From: Baghdasarian