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The Danger Of Russia Plotting More Ethnic Separatism In Azerbaijan

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  • The Danger Of Russia Plotting More Ethnic Separatism In Azerbaijan

    THE DANGER OF RUSSIA PLOTTING MORE ETHNIC SEPARATISM IN AZERBAIJAN

    The Hill, DC
    March 13 2015

    By Joshua Noonan

    Russia has a penchant for frozen conflicts.

    Its policy of backing separatist movements that lead to the creation of
    de-facto states inside its neighbors' borders helps it control those
    neighbors. Today, there are several Moscow-backed frozen conflicts
    in the region -- in Moldova, Georgia, Ukraine and Azerbaijan.

    And now, some pundits are worrying about a second conflict in
    Azerbaijan as well.

    ADVERTISEMENT Russia recently poked a stick in the eye of those who
    are upset about these frozen conflicts --including the victimized
    countries and the West -- by beginning military exercises in three
    areas it has occupied: Crimea, which it took from Ukraine, and
    the South Ossetia and Abkhazia enclaves it took from Georgia. The
    exercises also involve troops at Russia's base in Armenia and the
    Black Sea naval fleet in Sevastopol.

    Frozen conflicts start out "hot" -- that is, there is a war or conflict
    between the separatists and the armed forces of the countries they
    want to secede from.

    By sending arms and troops to the separatists, Moscow prevents
    neighbors with secession movements from subduing the rebels.

    The conflict settles into a cold peace that threatens to turn hot
    again. This situation prevents the countries with the secession
    movements from developing normally.

    This instability not only limits international investment in the
    victimized country, but also discourages it from forging political
    or military relationships in dissonance with Russia.

    The threat that continually hangs over the victimized nation is that if
    the Kremlin becomes displeased with its policies, the frozen conflict
    will become hot again.

    The first frozen conflict stemmed from a war in the late 1980s and
    early 1990s between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It involved Armenia's
    claim, as the Soviet Union was breaking up, that the Nagorno-Karabakh
    enclave in southwestern Azerbaijan should belong to Armenia, since
    most of its inhabitants were ethnic Armenians.

    This was despite the fact that the demographic situation favoring
    ethnic Azerbaijanis in the late 19th century was gradually changed by
    Moscow. The All-Russian Imperial Census from 1897 clearly identified
    an Azerbaijani majority in uyezds (administrative units of the Russian
    Empire) that covered the territory of today's Karabakh region.

    Russia backed Armenia in the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, which
    ended in 1994 with a separatist regime occupying the enclave.

    The Moldova frozen conflict grew out of a war from 1990 to 1992
    between Russian-backed separatists in the Transnistria region and
    Moldovan forces trying to suppress the rebellion.

    A truce was declared in 1992. Transnistria remains a breeding-ground
    for criminal and pro-Russian elements, as has also been seen in Crimea
    following its annexation.

    The Georgia frozen conflict stemmed from a war in 2008 that separatists
    in the South Ossetia and Abkhazia enclaves and their Russian allies
    fought against the Georgian military. Russia was only too pleased
    to help the separatists after Georgia declared its intention to join
    the EU and NATO.

    The frozen conflict in Ukraine involves Russia's seizure of the
    Crimean peninsula in the spring of 2014. The invasion occurred after
    demonstrators in Kiev ousted pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych
    for repudiating a treaty that would have brought Ukraine closer to
    the EU.

    A separatist rebellion in eastern Ukraine that also erupted in the
    spring of 2014 is still in the "hot" phase, but Russia's ultimate aim
    appears to be to turn it into a frozen conflict as well, geopolitical
    experts say.

    The danger of a second Russian-backed frozen conflict in Azerbaijan
    involves the Talysh minority in the country's southeast. Russia
    and its allies have repeatedly tried to manipulate the Talysh for
    political gain.

    Talysh nationalists fought a brief, unsuccessful conflict with
    Azerbaijani forces in 1993.

    There have been hints that Russia may be thinking about fomenting
    another rebellion in the enclave that leads to a destabilizing
    separatism in Azerbaijan, geopolitical pundits say.

    A frozen conflict might help Moscow attain a level of control over
    Azerbaijan that it has been unable to attain so far.

    Oil and gas have made Azerbaijan an economic power in the region. That
    means Moscow can't use economic intimidation to bend Baku to its will,
    as it has other countries in the region. Its favorite economic weapon
    -- threatening to cut off gas -- won't work with such a petroleum-rich
    country.

    Russia started buying billions of cubic meters of Azerbaijani gas in
    2010 to try to decrease the reserves that Azerbaijan could allocate
    to the Southern Gas Corridor. That network of pipelines will begin
    supplying the EU in 2019 via the Trans Adriatic Pipeline. The Russian
    strategy failed, however, as Azerbaijan has since made additional
    discoveries of offshore natural gas.

    Russia does not benefit from the fact that Azerbaijan has followed a
    balanced foreign policy that includes forging closer ties with the
    West. Baku's decision to work with Georgia, Turkey, and the United
    States to build oil and gas pipelines to sell to Europe has infringed
    upon Russia's self-declared privileged geopolitical area of interest.

    Much of this is tied to these energy pipelines, which have weakened
    the Kremlin's ability to use oil and gas as a weapon.

    Russia would love a less independent Azerbaijan, so it is perhaps
    not surprising that it has shown renewed interest in the Talysh.

    One sign of its official interest is that the Russian Institute for
    Strategic Studies, which is closely aligned with the Kremlin, supports
    the argument that there was once an independent Talysh khanate.

    Much of this activity is also stoked through Russia's ally, Armenia,
    by way of the Talysh Studies Program at Yerevan State University. The
    program holds conferences on Talysh issues, while promoting the idea
    of an independent Talysh state.

    Russia's interest in promoting Talysh separatism was also demonstrated
    in the Russian newspaper IAREX's interview with Talysh leader
    Fakhraddin Aboszoda just last month.

    Aboszoda made the same argument about an independent Talysh khanate
    that the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies has supported, and
    contended that it justifies creating a modern Talysh state. Such an
    interview in a Kremlin mouthpiece might have been a trial balloon,
    but at worst it was a policy signal from Moscow that it embraces the
    separatist narrative.

    What would be Moscow's goals in fomenting more ethnic separatism
    in Azerbaijan?

    Its first objective would be to prevent the country from pursuing an
    independent foreign policy that includes closer ties with the West,
    and instead adopt policy that reflects Moscow's interests.

    Azerbaijan, the region and the world need to sound the alarm on any
    preparations that Russia makes to grow separatism in the country. The
    earlier such designs come to the world's attention, the better.

    Efforts to undermine Azerbaijan's stability would harm the region
    and the world.

    Noonan is an independent analyst and frequent commentator on
    post-Soviet issues. He is a graduate of the Johns Hopkins University's
    School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, D.C.

    http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/235547-the-danger-of-russia-plotting-more-ethnic-separatism-in




    From: A. Papazian
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