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ERDOGAN'S ULTIMATUM TO PUTIN ON ARMENIAN ISSUE
Hakob Badalyan, Political Commentator
Comments - 19 March 2015, 14:24
The Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan telephoned the Russian
President Putin and, among other issues, discussed the Armenian
Genocide, which is mentioned in the press release as the problems of
1915. Erdogan practically complained to Putin Turkey reached out its
hand but Armenia did not take it and refused the proposal to discuss
those events "justly".
However, it is not just a complaint but a subtle hint that Russia must
"persuade" Armenia to take Turkey's hand. In other words, it expects
Russia to use its influence on Armenia to have the letter refrain from
a tough policy on the Armenian issue, particularly in the framework
of the Centenary of the Genocide.
The current stage is important for Turkey because Ankara has serious
concerns. The problem is not that the Centenary may be marked by
u-turns for the Armenian issue. It would be ingenuous to think that a
problem with such huge geopolitical importance would be observed in
the context of a centenary. Simply this centenary overlapped with a
cloudy period in the Turkey-West relations with lack of confidence,
and Ankara must have concerns or maybe believes that the West will
use the Armenian issue to intensify pressure on Turkey and bring
Turkey under Euro-Atlantic control.
Recently Ankara has been trying to conduct an independent foreign
policy, which is not in line with the interests of the United States
and the EU and poses risks. In addition, this circumstance exposes
Armenia, and it is in line with Yerevan's interests if Turkey is
controllable, manageable and adjustable to the Euro-Atlantic strategy.
It stems from the logic of security of Armenia and the Caucasus.
Erdogan resists, trying to make an alliance with Russia. At the same
time, official Ankara realizes that Russia also appreciates alliance
with Turkey that conducts an "independent policy" but is a mere
instrument or means of limiting Western influence in the Caucasus,
after which Russia will try to neutralize Turkish influence on the
Caucasus.
The Armenian issue will be an important instrument in this job. Russia
is interested in neutralizing the Armenian factor altogether for the
sake of alliance with Turkey but after neutralizing Western influence
on the Caucasus through alliance with Turkey Russia will use the
Armenian issue to corner Ankara and curb its ambitions.
Therefore, Ankara will try to bury the Armenian issue with the
help of Russia as deep as possible not only to prevent or reduce
the effect of its use in the West but also later Russia will have a
difficulty against Turkey. Therefore, Ankara is trying to rid of the
Armenian issue with the help of Moscow because Moscow is interested
in strategic alliance with Ankara.
It is obvious that Erdogan is not just complaining and hinting that
Armenia should put pressure on Armenia but he is speaking to Putin
with the tone of an ultimatum. In this regard, it is necessary to
pay attention to the time of the Putin-Erdogan conversation. This
conversation takes place on the next day of the launch of the
construction of TANAP in Kars on March 17. The pipeline the
construction of which will cost 11 billion dollars will transport
Azerbaijani gas to Europe by 2019-2020 and become an alternative to
the Russian gas.
Whether the pipeline will be laid out or not is another issue because
there are several other factors there but the EU is sees this pipeline
as an important project, and it has a significant role in the EUs new
energy security package. In fact, Turkey thus launches a project which
will end the EU's dependence on the Russian gas. After this launch
Erdogan called Putin and reminded him that Moscow has obligations to
Ankara to use its influence to neutralize the Armenian issue.
In addition, Russia has influence not only on Armenia but on the part
of the Armenian Diaspora whose Russian sentiment could compete with
that of the Armenian political class and government.
Hence, after the telephone talk with Erdogan Putin's visit to Armenia
on April 24 causes concerns because Erdogan could actually draft the
agenda of his visit.
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33793#sthash.NfcIz4gK.dpuf
Hakob Badalyan, Political Commentator
Comments - 19 March 2015, 14:24
The Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan telephoned the Russian
President Putin and, among other issues, discussed the Armenian
Genocide, which is mentioned in the press release as the problems of
1915. Erdogan practically complained to Putin Turkey reached out its
hand but Armenia did not take it and refused the proposal to discuss
those events "justly".
However, it is not just a complaint but a subtle hint that Russia must
"persuade" Armenia to take Turkey's hand. In other words, it expects
Russia to use its influence on Armenia to have the letter refrain from
a tough policy on the Armenian issue, particularly in the framework
of the Centenary of the Genocide.
The current stage is important for Turkey because Ankara has serious
concerns. The problem is not that the Centenary may be marked by
u-turns for the Armenian issue. It would be ingenuous to think that a
problem with such huge geopolitical importance would be observed in
the context of a centenary. Simply this centenary overlapped with a
cloudy period in the Turkey-West relations with lack of confidence,
and Ankara must have concerns or maybe believes that the West will
use the Armenian issue to intensify pressure on Turkey and bring
Turkey under Euro-Atlantic control.
Recently Ankara has been trying to conduct an independent foreign
policy, which is not in line with the interests of the United States
and the EU and poses risks. In addition, this circumstance exposes
Armenia, and it is in line with Yerevan's interests if Turkey is
controllable, manageable and adjustable to the Euro-Atlantic strategy.
It stems from the logic of security of Armenia and the Caucasus.
Erdogan resists, trying to make an alliance with Russia. At the same
time, official Ankara realizes that Russia also appreciates alliance
with Turkey that conducts an "independent policy" but is a mere
instrument or means of limiting Western influence in the Caucasus,
after which Russia will try to neutralize Turkish influence on the
Caucasus.
The Armenian issue will be an important instrument in this job. Russia
is interested in neutralizing the Armenian factor altogether for the
sake of alliance with Turkey but after neutralizing Western influence
on the Caucasus through alliance with Turkey Russia will use the
Armenian issue to corner Ankara and curb its ambitions.
Therefore, Ankara will try to bury the Armenian issue with the
help of Russia as deep as possible not only to prevent or reduce
the effect of its use in the West but also later Russia will have a
difficulty against Turkey. Therefore, Ankara is trying to rid of the
Armenian issue with the help of Moscow because Moscow is interested
in strategic alliance with Ankara.
It is obvious that Erdogan is not just complaining and hinting that
Armenia should put pressure on Armenia but he is speaking to Putin
with the tone of an ultimatum. In this regard, it is necessary to
pay attention to the time of the Putin-Erdogan conversation. This
conversation takes place on the next day of the launch of the
construction of TANAP in Kars on March 17. The pipeline the
construction of which will cost 11 billion dollars will transport
Azerbaijani gas to Europe by 2019-2020 and become an alternative to
the Russian gas.
Whether the pipeline will be laid out or not is another issue because
there are several other factors there but the EU is sees this pipeline
as an important project, and it has a significant role in the EUs new
energy security package. In fact, Turkey thus launches a project which
will end the EU's dependence on the Russian gas. After this launch
Erdogan called Putin and reminded him that Moscow has obligations to
Ankara to use its influence to neutralize the Armenian issue.
In addition, Russia has influence not only on Armenia but on the part
of the Armenian Diaspora whose Russian sentiment could compete with
that of the Armenian political class and government.
Hence, after the telephone talk with Erdogan Putin's visit to Armenia
on April 24 causes concerns because Erdogan could actually draft the
agenda of his visit.
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33793#sthash.NfcIz4gK.dpuf