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Journal of Turkish Weekly
March 28 2015
Armenians maintain 'optimism' ahead of Turkish polls
AA
28 March 2015
Armenian experts talking to The Anadolu Agency believe the two
historically hostile countries could start a new phase after 2015.
Despite upcoming sensitive anniversaries and a Turkish general
election, observers are claiming they are "optimistic" that Turkey and
Armenia could mend links in the near future.
Armenian experts talking to The Anadolu Agency believe the two
historically hostile countries could start a new phase after 2015.
This year marks the centenary of mass deportations of Armenians from
Anatolia during the First World War.
"In many ways I remain optimistic but in terms of a refined schedule
of 2016 and 2017," says American-born Armenian political analyst,
Richard Giragosian.
Over recent months the Turkish and Armenian presidents have exchanged
angry words over planned Gallipoli (Gelibolu) commemoration events.
The ceremonies in April will mark Turkey's historical feat of arms but
they also fall on the 100th anniversary of the 1915 forced relocation
of Armenians from Turkish soil, which the Armenian diaspora and
government describe as "genocide."
If April 25 is a testing time for Turkish-Armenian relations, June 8
-- the day after Turkey's general election -- could prove to be
another delicate moment, according to Giragosian, who is director of
the Yerevan-based Regional Studies Center.
The Turkish election is an "opportunity" for greater "self-confidence"
in Ankara within the Turkish government which could prompt a return to
normalization and diplomatic engagement with Armenia, says Giragosian.
Vahram Ter-Matevosyan, a political scientist at the American
University of Armenia, agrees: "It is a good period because they
[Turkey] don't have elections after June."
Like Turkey, Armenia will not face elections until 2018.
According to Matevosyan, the opening of the border between Turkey and
Armenia, closed for more than 20 years since the beginning of the
Karabakh conflict, also depends on the outcome of the polls.
However, he believes Turkish-Armenian relations will not be at the top
of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's post-election agenda.
The stalled 2009 Zurich protocols between Turkey and Armenia proposed
opening the border as well as mending diplomatic relations.
According to Matevosyan, to have an open border means cooperation:
"Armenia would have the opportunity to reach Mediterranean ports."
He says that Tbilisi currently has a monopoly on Armenia's foreign
trade as 70 percent of it has to pass through neighboring Georgia.
The owner of Armenian textile company TOSP, Suren Berkirski, tells AA
that 70 percent of his raw materials come from Turkey via Georgia,
something which raises transportation costs for his business.
Although official ties remain frozen between Turkey and Armenia there
remains an ongoing trade connection between the two countries.
In January alone Turkey did not supply exports to Armenia but
officially imported $59,000-worth of trade from Armenia, according to
the Turkish Statistical Institute.
Turkish imports from Armenia reached their highest ever point --
$2,626,000 -- in 2010 in the aftermath of the 2009 protocols,
according to Turkstat.
"With a Gross Domestic Product of $786 billion, Turkey is the 18th
largest economy in the world," according to the World Bank: "With an
estimated per-capita GDP of US$3,830, Armenia is a lower middle-income
country."
Giragosian notes that the opening of the border hypothetically is very
important in terms of creating economic and trade opportunities and
allowing much greater interaction beyond the current two weekly direct
flights between Istanbul and Yerevan.
-'Normalization is not supposed to be easy'
According to Matevosyan, there is now a completely different situation
on official relations between Ankara and Yerevan: "The mutual
misconception and mutual misunderstanding is higher than in 2009."
"What we have now is full of problems and only a few solutions hanging
in the air," he says.
Giragosian, on the other hand, believes that "the entire effort of
normalization was never supposed to be easy."
Director of the Yerevan-based Caucasus Institute, Alexander
Iskandaryan, is optimistic too.
"We did not open the physical borders but we are opening mental
borders," Iskandaryan says, referring to ongoing civil society
interaction between the two nations.
According to Iskandaryan, Turkey is changing and democratizing:
"Generally you can speak more openly in Turkey and this affects
Armenians as well."
As Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan said last week that the 2009
protocols being withdrawn from the Armenian parliament does not mean
that future reconciliation with Turkey was now closed.
Matevosyan believes the text of the next protocols should be very
simple: "Armenia and Turkey are here to establish diplomatic
relations."
http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/182492/armenians-maintain-39-optimism-39-ahead-of-turkish-polls.html
From: Baghdasarian
March 28 2015
Armenians maintain 'optimism' ahead of Turkish polls
AA
28 March 2015
Armenian experts talking to The Anadolu Agency believe the two
historically hostile countries could start a new phase after 2015.
Despite upcoming sensitive anniversaries and a Turkish general
election, observers are claiming they are "optimistic" that Turkey and
Armenia could mend links in the near future.
Armenian experts talking to The Anadolu Agency believe the two
historically hostile countries could start a new phase after 2015.
This year marks the centenary of mass deportations of Armenians from
Anatolia during the First World War.
"In many ways I remain optimistic but in terms of a refined schedule
of 2016 and 2017," says American-born Armenian political analyst,
Richard Giragosian.
Over recent months the Turkish and Armenian presidents have exchanged
angry words over planned Gallipoli (Gelibolu) commemoration events.
The ceremonies in April will mark Turkey's historical feat of arms but
they also fall on the 100th anniversary of the 1915 forced relocation
of Armenians from Turkish soil, which the Armenian diaspora and
government describe as "genocide."
If April 25 is a testing time for Turkish-Armenian relations, June 8
-- the day after Turkey's general election -- could prove to be
another delicate moment, according to Giragosian, who is director of
the Yerevan-based Regional Studies Center.
The Turkish election is an "opportunity" for greater "self-confidence"
in Ankara within the Turkish government which could prompt a return to
normalization and diplomatic engagement with Armenia, says Giragosian.
Vahram Ter-Matevosyan, a political scientist at the American
University of Armenia, agrees: "It is a good period because they
[Turkey] don't have elections after June."
Like Turkey, Armenia will not face elections until 2018.
According to Matevosyan, the opening of the border between Turkey and
Armenia, closed for more than 20 years since the beginning of the
Karabakh conflict, also depends on the outcome of the polls.
However, he believes Turkish-Armenian relations will not be at the top
of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's post-election agenda.
The stalled 2009 Zurich protocols between Turkey and Armenia proposed
opening the border as well as mending diplomatic relations.
According to Matevosyan, to have an open border means cooperation:
"Armenia would have the opportunity to reach Mediterranean ports."
He says that Tbilisi currently has a monopoly on Armenia's foreign
trade as 70 percent of it has to pass through neighboring Georgia.
The owner of Armenian textile company TOSP, Suren Berkirski, tells AA
that 70 percent of his raw materials come from Turkey via Georgia,
something which raises transportation costs for his business.
Although official ties remain frozen between Turkey and Armenia there
remains an ongoing trade connection between the two countries.
In January alone Turkey did not supply exports to Armenia but
officially imported $59,000-worth of trade from Armenia, according to
the Turkish Statistical Institute.
Turkish imports from Armenia reached their highest ever point --
$2,626,000 -- in 2010 in the aftermath of the 2009 protocols,
according to Turkstat.
"With a Gross Domestic Product of $786 billion, Turkey is the 18th
largest economy in the world," according to the World Bank: "With an
estimated per-capita GDP of US$3,830, Armenia is a lower middle-income
country."
Giragosian notes that the opening of the border hypothetically is very
important in terms of creating economic and trade opportunities and
allowing much greater interaction beyond the current two weekly direct
flights between Istanbul and Yerevan.
-'Normalization is not supposed to be easy'
According to Matevosyan, there is now a completely different situation
on official relations between Ankara and Yerevan: "The mutual
misconception and mutual misunderstanding is higher than in 2009."
"What we have now is full of problems and only a few solutions hanging
in the air," he says.
Giragosian, on the other hand, believes that "the entire effort of
normalization was never supposed to be easy."
Director of the Yerevan-based Caucasus Institute, Alexander
Iskandaryan, is optimistic too.
"We did not open the physical borders but we are opening mental
borders," Iskandaryan says, referring to ongoing civil society
interaction between the two nations.
According to Iskandaryan, Turkey is changing and democratizing:
"Generally you can speak more openly in Turkey and this affects
Armenians as well."
As Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan said last week that the 2009
protocols being withdrawn from the Armenian parliament does not mean
that future reconciliation with Turkey was now closed.
Matevosyan believes the text of the next protocols should be very
simple: "Armenia and Turkey are here to establish diplomatic
relations."
http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/182492/armenians-maintain-39-optimism-39-ahead-of-turkish-polls.html
From: Baghdasarian