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  • If the Armenians wish, they can conquer Azerbaijan

    AZG Marmenian Daily, Armenia
    Aug 20 2004

    "IF THE ARMENIANS WISH, THEY CAN CONQUER AZERBAIJAN"

    While in Baku They Are Hopeful That "in the Coming 25-30 Years There
    Will Be No State Called Armenia in the Southern Caucasus"

    "'How to liberate the occupied territories?' This question is likely
    to be put forward in each family of Azerbaijan. It is impossible to
    liberate the Nagorno Karabagh and the neighboring regions without
    military actions. There has been no case in the military history when
    the conquered territories were voluntarily liberated," the recent
    issue of Baku's Zerkalo wrote. Ramiz Melikov, Press Speaker of Azeri
    Defense Minister, stated recently that "there will be no state called
    Armenia in the South Caucasus in the coming 25-30 years, as today's
    Armenia was founded on the Azeri historical territories and in near
    future these lands will be controlled by Azerbaijan." Melikov didn't
    specify how they are going to conquer Armenia.

    President Ilham Aliyev and the supreme military officials state in
    public that the Azeri army is more efficient than the Armenian one
    and if the peaceful negotiations yield no results, Azerbaijan will
    have to solve the issue of Nagorno Karabagh and the neighboring
    territories under Armenia's control through military actions. It's
    worth mentioning that Baku has been consistently trying to solve the
    issue through military actions since 1998, when the new stage of
    Karabagh struggle began.

    Vladimir Kazimirov, Former Special Russian Ambassador of OSCE Minsk
    Group, wrote in one of his recent articles that the sides in conflict
    had many opportunities to stop the war, to set up ceasefire even in
    1992. He states in his article that the Azeri side was violating the
    ceasefire mainly, hoping to solve the conflict through war, making
    all the Armenians leave the territory.

    Kazimirov said that in June of 1992, there appeared an opportunity to
    stop the military actions on the front line and open the OSCE Minsk
    conference, but Abulfaz Elchibey put forward a precondition, i.e. the
    Armenians should leave Shushi and Lachin. On May 8 and 18 the
    Karabagh forces liberated Shushi and took control over Lachin
    corridor, securing land connection between Armenia and Karabagh.

    Kazimirov, who implemented a mediator's mission in the region for 47
    times, recollects that in July, 1992 the Karabagh side agreed to
    signing ceasefire, but Elchibey was stubborn, and only in the spring
    of 1993, when the Karabagh forces took the control over Kelbajar, the
    pro-Turkish Baku government gave consent for ceasefire.

    One shouldn't forget that Elchibey once promised to wash his feet in
    the Sevan waters. It's worth mentioning that the Azeri armed forces
    conquered almost the half of Karabakh's territory in the summer of
    1992.

    In June of 1993, the Azeris and the Karabagh people began direct
    negotiations that helped make a ceasefire for a while. But Heydar
    Aliyev, who came to power in Baku through military revolution, wanted
    to regain the lost through military action. Again the Azeris began
    refusing the settlement of the Nagorno Karabagh conflict through
    negotiations. On July 23 the Karabagh forces took the control over
    Aghdam, the neighboring dwelling places, a number of hills of
    military meaning. Only after all these steps the Azeris stopped
    bombing Stepanakert.

    Notwithstanding the obvious military benefits, the Karabagh side
    through the Russians' mediatorial efforts again gave the consent to
    stop military actions and set up a ceasefire on July 24, the very
    next day after conquering Aghdam. Azerbaijan secured the ceasefire
    for several days, but it broke the agreement afterwards. As a result,
    the Karabagh forces took control over Fizuli, Jebrail and Kubatlun in
    the August of 1993.

    Two secret meetings took place between Heydar Aliyev and Robert
    Kocharian in Moscow in the autumn of 1993. In this period Aliyev was
    engaged in settling the problems of inner character, he made legal
    the results of the military-state revolution that took place several
    months ago and occupied the post of Azerbaijan's leader. Few days
    after the inauguration the Azeri armed forces began the military
    actions again. Hundreds of the Armenian soldiers were killed as a
    result of the large-scale attack in Kelbajar's direction in winter.
    But the failure didn't last long. The Karabagh forces began a
    large-scale attack and Azerbaijan lost at least 2000 soldiers in few
    days.

    In the April of 1994, the Karabagh forces were ready to conquer
    Tartar, Bardan and Gianjan and reach Georgia's border. The Azeri were
    made to set a ceasefire. It took place in Bishkek, May. This
    ceasefire is being secured till now with some violations.

    By the way, the American Boston Globe daily dedicated a publication
    to the Nagorno Karabagh Issue. The reporter of the daily cites the
    words of Mamedov, Azeri Major, who was dwelling on the situation in
    Azerbaijan fighting against Armenia and Azerbaijan. He says:" If the
    Armenians wish, they can conquer the whole Azerbaijan."

    The militant statements made by the Baku officials should be paid
    attention. As soon as Azerbaijan becomes certain about the
    possibility of settling the issue through applying arms, the war will
    begin. Anyway, the events of 1991-94 testify to this.

    By Tatoul Hakobian
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