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  • A "Cold War" Between NATO Members

    A "COLD WAR" BETWEEN NATO MEMBERS
    by Petr Iskenderov, Victor Volodin

    Source: Vremya Novostey, November 17, 2006, p. 5
    Agency WPS
    DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
    November 20, 2006 Monday

    Is The Conflict Between Turkey And France Beneficial For Russia?;

    Like Turkish authorities had promised, resolution of the lower house
    of the French parliament on criminal liability in France for denial of
    genocide of Armenians punished by a year of imprisonment and penalty
    of 45,000 euros did not remain without consequences.

    Like Turkish authorities had promised, resolution of the lower house
    of the French parliament on criminal liability in France for denial
    of genocide of Armenians punished by a year of imprisonment and
    penalty of 45,000 euros did not remain without consequences. General
    Ilker Basbug, commander of the ground forces and the second person
    in the military hierarchy of Turkey, reported that his country would
    freeze all military relations with France saying that "relations with
    France in the military field are suspended" and "mutual visits on a
    high level are abolished." Turkey refuses to consider the death of
    Armenians during World War I to be genocide saying that the matter
    is about events of wartime when the number of killed Turks was not
    less than the number of Armenians. Turkey denies the figure of 1.5
    million killed Armenians speaking only about 300,000.

    Decision of Turkey will deal a blow on development of relations with
    France. Along with Germany and the US, France is the leading military
    partner of Turkey.

    The Turkish-French conflict promises benefits to Russia. Major General
    Alexander Vladimirov, comments, "Turkey stopped military technological
    cooperation with a NATO member state and Russia may occupy the vacant
    spot. Moreover so that the issue of Russian armament supply to Turkey,
    for instance, supply of tanks, has already been considered."

    Alexei Arbatov, correspondent member of the Russian Academy of
    Sciences, does not quite agree with Vladimirov. Arbatov remarks,
    "We do not need to be glad about weakening positions of NATO due to
    stopping military technological cooperation by Ankara with France. Of
    the two evils Russia will receive the bigger one. Membership of
    Turkey in NATO (there are 26 countries there now) is unpleasant for
    us but its breakup with NATO may happen in circumstances that will
    result in unpleasant consequences for Russia." Arbatov predicts,
    "The process of cooling down relations between Turkey and NATO began
    a long time ago. In a more distant future NATO will most likely lose
    Turkey. Withdrawal of American forces from Iraq and beginning of a
    civil war there between Kurds and Arabs, may serve as a precondition
    for this. Turkey is afraid that struggle for independence in Kurdistan
    will lead to beginning of a civil war in Turkey. If this happens a
    radical Islamic government may ascend to power in Turkey."

    In this case "influence of the militant Turkish Islamic radicalism
    will be spread to the entire Caucasian region including the North
    Caucasus where Islamic structures have been established with assistance
    of Turkey."

    The candidacy of Turkey for entrance in the European Union encounters
    strong resistance in France. However, among the reasons the French
    party names not the genocide of Armenians but contemporary problems.

    In its recently published report the European Commission blames
    Turkey for slowdown of reforms, inability to guarantee main rights
    and liberties to its citizens and to settle relations with Cyprus. In
    the latter aspect Paris acts as one of the main opponents of Ankara.

    Arbatov presumes that "on the part of France the matter of genocide
    of Armenian people was initiated as an obstacle for entrance of Turkey
    into the European Union because the response reaction was predictable."
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