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ANKARA: Russia flexes muscles in Caucasus: End of post-Soviet era?

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  • ANKARA: Russia flexes muscles in Caucasus: End of post-Soviet era?

    Today's Zaman, Turkey
    Aug 11 2008



    Russia flexes muscles in Caucasus: End of post-Soviet era?


    Did Georgia's young and ambitious President Mikhail Saakashvili
    miscalculate everything when he ordered an offensive in his country's
    breakaway region of South Ossetia?

    Given the scale of the defeat his army suffered at the hands of the
    Russian forces responding to the Georgian offensive, this appears to
    be a reasonable conclusion. But whether his miscalculation is to blame
    for the latest tragedy in the troubled Caucasus or not, it is a clear
    fact that Russia's backlash was massive and ominous in threatening to
    shift the power balances prevailing in the Caucasus since the end of
    the Cold War.

    And as Moscow teaches Georgia the lesson that there is no way to
    return to the status quo before the South Ossetia offensive, there is
    little the West can do to stop Russia from overrunning Tbilisi's
    ambitions to assert control over its breakaway regions despite
    statements from the US administration that it supports Georgia's
    `territorial integrity.' The Russian military victory over tiny
    Georgia is also a painful message to both Tbilisi and its Western
    allies that Georgian desires to join NATO, a milestone in Georgia's
    eventual integration with the US-led West, are unlikely to become a
    reality anytime soon.

    "My heart aches at this repetitious history of Russian dominance and
    aggression, whether Czarist, Bolshevik or Oligarchic," said Thomas
    Goltz, a US expert on the Caucasus. "We can ask the question: Did
    Misha [Saakashvili] go too far or get pulled into a trap? But it
    really makes no difference right now. Russia has just declared the
    'post-Soviet era' over and a new age has begun."

    South Ossetia is one of the breakaway regions in Georgia which
    declared independence in the early 1990s and ran its own affairs
    without any international recognition. It has been one of the "frozen
    conflicts" of the Caucasus in the post-Cold War era and thus its
    turning into a full-scale conflict like this is no surprise to
    observers. But it is very important to note that this is the first
    time in the post-Cold War era that Russia has resorted to military
    action on such a scale to defend its interests in a region it sees as
    its backyard.

    "One of the most important features of the post-Cold War era is the
    emergence of 'geopolitical pluralism,'" said Ã-zdem Sanberk, a
    former undersecretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, referring to
    the emergence of new states in what used to be the Soviet Union
    territory during the Cold War years. But a combination of what Russia
    sees as a hostile encirclement by the rival West -- through US moves
    to build an anti-missile shield system in eastern Europe and Western
    support for Kosovo's independence from Russian ally Serbia -- and
    growing Russian power thanks partly to rising oil prices, now prompts
    Russia to take steps to destroy this "geopolitical pluralism" in the
    Caucasus. "That means a return to the Cold War era," Sanberk said.

    A New York Times analysis said yesterday that the US administration
    officials acknowledge that "Moscow is in the driver's seat," given the
    fact that Russia's emerging aggressiveness is now also timed with
    America's preoccupation with Iraq and Afghanistan and a looming
    confrontation with Iran. The newspaper quoted George Friedman, the
    chief executive of Stratfor, a geopolitical analysis and intelligence
    company, as saying: "We've placed ourselves in a position that
    globally we don't have the wherewithal to do anything. One would think
    under those circumstances, we'd shut up."

    Saakashvili won the last elections on promises of NATO membership,
    something which Georgia hopes will give it Western protection against
    former ruler Russia, and control over the breakaway regions. But
    NATO's Bucharest summit earlier this year disappointed the Georgian
    administration, saying it still has problems in ensuring its
    territorial integrity.

    Russia, on the other hand, sees Georgia's NATO membership as part of
    the hostile encirclement by the West. After Russian diplomacy failed
    to stop Kosovo's independence earlier this year, Russian leaders
    warned this would be a precedent for breakaway regions in the
    Caucasus, including South Ossetia.

    Georgia is the most loyal US ally in the Caucasus and is of key
    importance in the transfer of natural gas and oil from Caspian fields
    to the West via a non-Russian route. But now, having paid a high price
    for its high-stake offensive in South Ossetia, Georgia, and others who
    counted so far on the West to counterbalance Russia, are being forced
    to reconsider their trust in the US and NATO. The Russian victory in
    South Ossetia may well force a change of power in Georgia, with
    Saakashvili eventually being replaced by a less pro-Western leader in
    a blow to US interests in the region.

    Russian experts, on the other hand, argue that the Russian position is
    promising and peaceful. Moscow-based political analyst Dmitry Peskov
    argues that in fact Russia was not preparing for this conflict. "With
    our president on vacation and our prime minister at the Olympics,
    Russian officials were not ready for such a fast-paced and dramatic
    story," he said. Speaking to Today's Zaman yesterday, Peskov said that
    following three days of Georgia's offensive a humanitarian crisis had
    erupted and a number of Russian soldiers had died in Ossetia. The
    Russian society is considering the question of when and where it will
    be ready to stop the military action. "With Georgian troops outside
    Ossetia and with peacekeepers, working under a UN mandate, Russia will
    stop immediately," he said.

    Turkey, which is cooperating with Georgia in all key trans-Caucasus
    transportation and energy transfer projects and is helping Tbilisi
    modernize its army, has also been caught in a difficult situation.
    Despite its strong support for Georgia's integration with Western
    institutions and the reliance on Tbilisi to reach the region due to
    problems with neighboring Armenia, siding with Georgia in its conflict
    with Russia is not a smart policy move. Trade with Russia has grown
    tremendously over the past years and Russia is Turkey's largest
    natural gas supplier, providing about 70 percent of its annual gas
    needs.




    11 August 2008, Monday


    FATMA DEMIRELLI, MAHIR ZEYNALOV TODAY'S ZAMAN
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