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Economist: Confrontational Russia

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  • Economist: Confrontational Russia

    CONFRONTATIONAL RUSSIA

    Economist
    http://www.economist.com/world/e urope/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11998649
    Aug 27 2008
    UK

    Russia's diplomatic recognition of two breakaway bits of Georgia is
    more bad news

    TO GEORGIAN fury, Western consternation and strong support at home,
    Russia's government recognised two breakaway regions of Georgia as
    independent countries on Tuesday August 26th. The map of Europe is
    different, and darker, as a result.

    The planned dispatch of Russian diplomats to open embassies in
    Sukhumi and Tskhinvali, the main cities in Abkhazia and South Ossetia
    respectively, marks the formal dismemberment of Georgia: until very
    recently, Russia had at least in theory accepted its neighbour's
    territorial integrity.

    As long as Russia kept up its recognition of Georgian territorial
    integrity, it could claim that its soldiers in both places were
    peacekeepers operating under international mandates. Cynics, such
    as Georgia's president, Mikheil Saakashvili, had long joked that the
    Russian forces should be called "piece-keepers", whose real role was
    to maintain the Kremlin's influence in the former empire. Russia
    says that its forces are protecting the Abkhaz and Ossetians from
    Georgian attack.

    Diplomatic historians may find that the two new countries will not
    make for enduring study. The next act in the drama may well be that
    both new countries ask to become part of the Russian Federation. That
    underlines Russia's dramatic military victory against Georgia in this
    month's war, giving it a permanent presence south of the Caucasus
    mountains, close to the vital oil and gas pipelines that bring energy
    from the Caspian region and Central Asia to Turkey and beyond.

    Russia likes to draw parallels with Kosovo--a state carved out
    of Serbia as a result of Western military intervention. But the
    parallel is superficial. Few embassies will open in South Ossetia
    (which, following the ethnic cleansing of its Georgian population,
    has a population little bigger than that of Liechtenstein). Close
    Russian allies such as Belarus and Tajikistan will be keen to put on
    a show of support. Others may be more chary of recognising Russian
    puppet states as independent countries. Moldova and Azerbaijan, for
    example, have headaches with similar entities, Transdniestria and
    Nagorno-Karabakh. Like South Ossetia and Abkhazia, they are the result
    of ethnic flare-ups in the dying days of the Soviet Union. Russian
    allies farther afield, such as Venezuela and Cuba, may be tempted to
    join in the humiliation of the West.

    Hard words are flying. Britain and America have condemned
    the move. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, called it
    "unacceptable". She is on a hastily arranged visit to the Baltic
    states, which are now shivering in anticipation of what Russia's
    foreign policy may hold in store for them. France, which holds the
    presidency of the European Union, had already called an emergency
    summit for September 1st to review ties with Russia. It was the French
    president, Nicolas Sarkozy, who brokered a ceasefire on August 12th. He
    is furious with what he sees as Russian double-dealing.

    Some of the strongest words came from Carl Bildt, the Swedish foreign
    minister: "That the Russian government leadership now has chosen this
    route means they have chosen a policy of confrontation, not only
    with the rest of Europe, but also with the international community
    in general," he said.

    All that may be true. But for now, criticism of the Kremlin's actions
    in Georgia seems to be fuelling the Russian leadership's determination
    to do more of the same. Public opinion seems strongly behind the
    muscular new foreign policy, seeing it as a sign that Russia has
    recovered from the weakness of the 1990s. Russia seems not to care
    that Western countries are now threatening to block its membership
    of the World Trade Organisation.

    Indeed, Russia feels it can easily withstand Western
    displeasure. Soaring oil and gas prices have put nearly $600 billion
    in its hard-currency reserves. Many Russians reckon that in the end
    the big European countries that matter will decide that they care
    more about trade ties and reliable energy supplies than they do about
    Georgia. On the evidence so far, that assessment may be correct.
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